Kovacevic: Penguins overpass, underwhelm

WINNIPEG, Manitoba -- There wasn't much for the Penguins to cull from the actual outcome of their 1-0 loss to the Jets Sunday night at MTS Centre.

The game itself was an abysmal bore, with the visitors having played the previous day in Minnesota and the home team having sat idle for a week in Manitoba, colder than the minus-23 temps outside. It was sleepy vs. stale, a slopfest of bouncing pucks, botched passes and ... wow, I can't even remember. Maybe my brain was frozen, too.

Even the extra-thoughtful Mike Sullivan couldn't come up with much more than some minor regrets about "early puck management" and the like.



But there were these strikingly similar two-on-one rushes in the first period that -- from this perch, anyway -- stood out at least a little:



In this sequence, Phil Kessel has a clear look at Winnipeg rookie Connor Hellebuyck. He also has a resume of 258 goals, with probably half of those coming by streaking down the right side exactly that way. But in one of the most ridiculous decisions in a season full of them for this team, he instead decides to dish to Sergei Plotnikov.

Now, if Kessel makes that pass to an honest-to-gosh NHL player, it might well get buried behind Hellebuyck, and we're all praising his superior skill and unselfishness. But he wasn't doing anything of the kind. He was passing to Plotnikov, whose goal total of zero through 28 games in Pittsburgh somehow overstates his contributions to date. He was passing when he might as well have picked up the puck, sprinkled salt on it and taken a bite.

Kessel overall played OK. Generated four of his own shots. I'm not isolating on him. But this was his best chance that involved a choice, and he opted out.



This is Sidney Crosby whizzing down the left side with his own clear look at Hellebuyck and, rather than ripping the puck as he did in this very building a year ago, he attempts to saucer the puck to Chris Kunitz, and it sails by everyone.

Again, this isn't to isolate. Crosby was the Penguins' top performer in Minnesota, and he, like Kessel, wound up with four shots against the Jets. But this was Crosby's best chance that involved a choice, as well.

I could show you a bunch more, not least of which was Evgeni Malkin pulling up on a three-on-two in which Crosby was power-driving to the net, and Malkin tried instead to dish to a trailer and had it easily intercepted. Malkin ended the evening without a shot.

Ever heard the sports adage about how your best players have to be your best players?

Well, in hockey, your best shooters have to, you know, shoot.

Sullivan still has plenty of work ahead. Don't let the rout of the Blue Jackets or the domination of the Wild, the two games that preceded this, fool you. Systematically, the Penguins have made massive progress on the breakout, modest progress through the neutral zone and in controlling the puck once they gain the opponent's blue line. But improving their shot selection and execution, maybe their single most mind-numbing shortcoming all season, won't be solved in short order.

And it's not one that the coach can -- or should -- control.

Listen to how carefully Sullivan answered my question on the topic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFM24iueEPM

What he's saying, without saying it, is that the stars have to figure that out for themselves.

In advanced metrics, one of the more commonly-cited concepts is called "reversion to the mean." In plain talk, that means water finds its level. Outlier figures always tend to boomerang back to where they've been before. If a guy's been a 20-goal scorer all his career and he's got zero at the All-Star break, chances are excellent he's about to go on a killer spree. And vice versa.

So here are the Penguins, through a mediocre 17-15-3 start, ranking all the way up at third in the league in shots taken, with an average of 31.6. The only two teams ahead of them, the Stars and Kings, are division leaders. The three teams right behind them also are all at least five games over .500. It's a pretty nice neighborhood.

And yet the Penguins' shooting percentage of 7.6 percent ranks all the way down at 28th. Only the Flyers and Ducks are lower.

Now, all concerned can wait for the inevitable "reversion to the mean" to take place. Or they can step on the gas and make it happen. Crosby has 100 shots for the season. Patric Hornqvist, for point of comparison, has 101. David Perron has 75. Hornqvist has six goals, Perron four. Those two might never experience the reversion, but here's betting Crosby will. And here's betting, in turn, that the Penguins will be able to take all of Sullivan's other preachings and make them count more often.

As for the rest of this game ... man, I'm still running on empty.

Winnipeg's Bryan Little breezily converted this first-period penalty shot ...



... but Jeff Zatkoff overcame early messiness to stop everything else:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uqb4kozgNM0

And near the very end, Chris Kunitz and Nick Bonino had extraordinary chances to tie but shot the puck into the face of the Jets' Tyler Myers.

Yeah, for real. His face:



Myers called it a "desperation play" and somehow came away mostly unscathed. Minor bruise on one cheek.

Opponents need to stop feeling that comfortable when, uh, facing the Penguins' shots.