Kovacevic: Blink and you'll miss Eastern final

This shouldn't take long.

And I'm not just talking about the Penguins' Eastern Conference final matchup with the Lightning, which faces off at 8:10 p.m. Friday at Consol Energy Center.

I'm talking about this column.

See, in picking the Penguins in five over the Rangers, then in six over the Capitals, all without the assistance of an envelope to the temple, there was this gnawing urge to discuss and dissect every single facet of those series before the first puck dropped. Both were difficult reads, albeit for very different reasons.

This series?

Well, let's just say I'd set out to offer three keys to the Penguins prevailing, and I wound up with just one:



1. SKATE

Don't just skate hard. Skate Carl Hagelin-hard. Skate Hagelin's-hindquarters-on-fire-hard.

There. That's it.

That's not to diminish Tampa Bay's talent in any way. Nikita Kucherov hasn't put up eight goals in these Stanley Cup playoffs because he stinks. Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat are swift, skilled and prolific when at their peak. Victor Hedman rates among the game's best defensemen. Ben Bishop is a deserving Vezina Trophy finalist. And this group, as a whole, took a wholly impressive path to the Stanley Cup Final only a year ago.

Regardless of the Lightning's much easier path this spring -- no one ever should have taken the Red Wings or Islanders seriously as Cup contenders -- they've got the pedigree to get through this round.

But only if the Penguins stand idly and watch.

"These are two teams that are pretty similar," Hagelin, his own very bad self, was saying Friday morning. "It's two teams that use their skill and their speed to create offense but also to play well defensively."

Yep. His column would have had only one key, as well. Because all he's describing there is puck possession. The Penguins will try to use their skill and speed to keep the puck, in part so they don't have their weaknesses exposed defensively. And the Lightning will try to do precisely the same.



In the first round, the Rangers accepted, without hesitation, the notion that the Penguins would be the faster team. So Alain Vigneault had them deploy what's their default mode, anyway, in going defense first. They'd move backward, try to protect the blue line, then fill the middle of the New York zone. If a turnover was made, they'd attack. Otherwise, they'd wait and try again.

Because Henrik Lundqvist was the last line, there was a chance it'd work.

Because Lundqvist was mostly lousy, it didn't.

In the second round, the Capitals begrudgingly accepted, though not right away, that the Penguins would be the faster team. So Barry Trotz had them slug away. One member of the team told us in the middle of the series that they felt they had no choice but to be 'chippy' with their opponent because they couldn't possibly keep up.

Because Alexander Ovechkin was rounding into form, there was a chance it'd work.

Because the Washington defense was mostly lousy, it didn't.

The Lightning, again with all proper respect, don't have any such elements in their favor.

Bishop is huge for a goaltender -- actually, for a human -- at 6-7, but he's not Lundqvist in terms of being able to outright steal a series. And he's not at Braden Holtby's level, either, and we saw how that went for Holtby. If anything, the Penguins will privately concede that they welcome facing the bigger goaltenders, whether Holtby or Devan Dubnyk or anyone. They love to force them to stride side-to-side and expose any mobility issue.

This is Nick Bonino's overtime goal from the other night. Don't watch him, Hagelin or Phil Kessel. Just watch Holtby as the sequence goes from right corner to left corner and then back out front:



I've watched this more than a dozen times, and I'll insist the Capitals did nothing wrong here. Not one of their players. They just couldn't keep up. And yes, that applies to Holtby, who's actually pretty good at the side-to-side thing.

If the Penguins skate, they'll create. If they create, they'll frustrate.

And that means frustrating the Lightning's forwards, as well, as I got out of Ian Cole:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lM3ouYuKYjg

Be aware, yes. Be in proper position, absolutely.

But the Penguins can at least get away with that much while riding all the rest of their positives entering this series: Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are beyond due to break out anew, especially with all the extra room they're about to experience. Their overall forward depth will present a colossal matchup problem for Jon Cooper, not least of which is how to clone Hedman. The power play finally showed signs of simmering late in the Washington series. The penalty-kill, after a couple steps backward against the Capitals, now gets to face a Tampa power play that ranked 28th in the regular season. Health is far more of an issue for the opponent, with the Penguins almost entirely in the clear and the Lightning still missing superb pieces in Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman. And in goal, Matt Murray, Mike Sullivan's correct and only reasonable choice to start Game 1, has been as sharp as anyone this postseason, Bishop included.

I'm tempted to predict Penguins in a sweep, but they do seem to have that singular rock-headed game where they forget who they are and stop skating.

So I'll go Penguins in five.