PHILADELPHIA — Tyler Glasnow entered 2016 as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, a 6-foot-8 right-hander with a fastball in the upper 90s and the potential of a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Glasnow proceeded to dominate Triple-A competition until he made his major-league debut for the Pirates on July 7 last season. Upon his arrival, he looked far from prepared for the jump, posting a 6.49 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 16 starts before being sent down last month.
In four starts since returning to Indianapolis, the 23-year-old has overwhelmed hitters to the tune of a 1.90 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings. Glasnow failed to succeed at the highest level but has mastered Triple-A.
The trend is making it difficult for organizations to evaluate what skills and inflated statistics may translate to the majors, so, how do the Pirates approach the issue when they're trying to lean on young players such as Glasnow?
"That’s kind of the beauty of it," Clint Hurdle said last Saturday at PNC Park. "I talk to scouts, our scouts, other scouts, and it seems every year that gap has gotten a little larger, the separation between Triple-A, the talent level there and what it is in the major leagues. Individually it can play out different. It’s hard to gauge."
The talent gap has major-league teams in a bind as they wonder when a prospect is ready to finally get the call to the majors or if a prospect like Glasnow -- once again doing well with Indianapolis -- is prepared to return.
Hurdle approaches Triple-A statistics with a certain amount of skepticism. He even talks to scouts from other organizations — mostly former teammates or colleagues — to hear an outside opinion on players inside the Pirates' farm system.
That information has been necessary in a year when the Pirates have needed players from Indy.
Seven players have made their major league debut with the Pirates this season, but only two have appeared in more than 50 games: José Osuna and Gift Ngoepe, who was sent down after batting .222 in 54 games.
The Pirates have also called upon infielder Max Moroff, a 24-year-old former 16th-round pick who was leading the International League with 13 home runs in 42 games with Indianapolis. A switch-hitter, Moroff was elevated again to provide more offense off the bench.
He is 4 for 39 with 14 strikeouts in 45 plate appearances.
"The pitching up here is just so much better," Moroff said. "These guys have stuff you don't see in Triple-A."
What has left many players such as Moroff so ill-prepared to make an impact? Neal Huntington said prospects are the victim of the technological boom in baseball. As major league teams gather more data than ever, they already have comprehensive scouting reports on Triple-A players.
When someone like Moroff steps into the batters' box, the opposing pitcher is well aware what his strengths and weaknesses are in every situation.
"Ten, 15 years ago, a player could come up and the league had to get to know him," Huntington said. "There was an adjustment period. Maybe this advance guy saw him and maybe shared something with that advance guy, and now you have five to seven games of video. With all the technology out there today, the minute they step onto the field the advance guys know what their hole is, they know how to attack them and they know what the tendencies or trends are."
That is not always the case, however.
Three years ago, Gregory Polanco arrived with the Pirates at 22 years old and went 15-for-39 with a home run, a double, and three walks in his first eight big league games. Over his next 81 games, Polanco hit .210/.288/.319 in 270 plate appearances and was sent back down to Indianapolis.
Many analysts pointed to offensive numbers in the major leagues dropping over the past decade, but the league is on pace to set a record for home runs in a single season in 2017. Besides, the problem with the gap is not limited to hitters.
Glasnow was able to dominate hitters with his velocity in the minor leagues and would get opponents to swing at a curveball in the dirt. Major-league hitters knew better than to do that against a pitcher for whom control is a weak point. He walked 29 batters in 54 1/3 big-league innings this season, and opponents batted .289 against his four-seam fastball.
He's not the only pitcher that is making the Pirates take a closer look at Triple-A numbers. Steven Brault, a 25-year-old left-handed starter, also made his major league debut last season and had a 1.86 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings.
Back in Triple-A this season, he leads the International League with a 2.00 ERA in 16 starts, striking out 88 in 94 1/3 innings. The front office did not call upon Brault, though, when Jameson Taillon was diagnosed with testicular cancer, because Brault still falls behind in the count far too often, but is able to escape by getting hitters to chase pitches.
That has inflated his pitch count far too early in games and he's walked 33 batters.
"It’s tough to evaluate because those Triple-A guys swing at curveballs in the dirt," Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage told DKPittsburghSports.com. "These guys up here will spit on it and say, ‘OK, prove to me you can throw a curveball for a strike.’ The numbers are getting skewed because the talent level isn’t what it used to be."
There are exceptions to the trend of rookies struggling to adjust. Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge leads the majors with 28 home runs this season. The Dodgers' Cody Bellinger, who is only 21 years old, has 24 home runs in 15 fewer games.
On the other hand, Twins outfielder Byron Buxton, who was once one of the top prospects in baseball, has never adjusted to the major leagues. Called up at 21 years old in June 2015, Buxton is batting .214 in 217 career games, bouncing back and forth between Triple-A and the majors.
Last season, the International League had an average OPS of .697 and the Pacific Coast League, which has more hitters' ballparks, had an OPS of .751, while the average OPS in the majors was .739. Naturally, any hitter making a jump is going to have a significant drop.
Both Searage and Triple-A Indianapolis manager Andy Barkett, who played seven seasons in Triple-A, said prospects are struggling because they are being rushed through the minors faster than ever before. According to FanGraphs, the average age in Triple-A was 28 years old in 2011.
The 29 players currently listed on Triple-A Indianapolis' roster, including those on the disabled list, have an average age of 25.3, with 10 players under 25, including top prospect Austin Meadows, who was 21 when the season started. Triple-A was once filled with veterans who were hoping to reach the major leagues again.
But many of those veterans have found more lucrative roles playing overseas. Jason Rogers, a 29-year-old first baseman acquired from the Brewers by the Pirates in exchange for outfielder Keon Broxton in Dec. 2015, left Indianapolis last week to play in Japan.
The Toledo Mud Hens, the Triple-A affiliate of the Detroit Tigers, have eight players over 30 years old. That was common in previous decades, but organizations are moving players up the ladder much faster.
"At the end of the day this is a commodities trading business," Barkett told DKPittsburghSports.com in May. "You’re trying to build value in players and value for a player equals value for the organization. If he’s in Double-A and he’s showing well for the scouts, he’s grading out well and all of sudden people start calling for him on a trade, then that value of him being in Triple-A, playing well and being evaluated as such could be more than him playing in Double-A and so forth."
Bonuses given to top draft picks provide more urgency to push young players. Barkett witnessed the trend when managing in the Marlins' organization, where top prospects such as outfielder Christian Yelich, outfielder Marcell Ozuna and catcher JT Realmuto were elevated to the majors directly from Double-A.
The Pirates have taken a more deliberate approach at times with prospects, including Josh Bell, who made his major league debut at 23 years old on July 8, 2016. He had 629 plate appearances at Triple-A and 198 at Double-A.
Polanco only had 314 plate appearances at Triple-A before making his debut, and Glasnow, who reached Triple-A at 22, made 28 starts with Indianapolis before his unsuccessful first stint in the majors.
Still, the Pirates entered this season leaning heavily on young players to prove the gap between Triple-A and the major leagues is not as significant. Glasnow and Chad Kuhl, a 24-year-old right-hander who also made his debut last July, were trusted with spots in the rotation.
Injuries, ineffectiveness and Starling Marté's suspension led the Pirates to turn to rookies such as Osuna, Ngoepe, Danny Ortiz, Dovydas Neverauskas and Chris Bostick at times this season. With the Pirates sitting eight games under .500, they could be sellers at the deadline, which could bring players back up from Triple-A and would force the organization to evaluate a return in the form of prospects — a dicey proposition considering an inability to project that talent to the major leagues.
"You can’t just say, ‘This guy has this in Triple-A. That means he’s ready to pitch the big leagues,’ " Hurdle said. "You can give him the opportunity. He’s done what he can do there, but there comes a point in time they’ve done what they can do and you need to give them that opportunity to see what they can do there and see how it equates. That’s always going to be the interesting part of the journey for all of us and the decision-making process."