Predicting No. 4 Nittany Lions' matchup with Pitt

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Many had this one circled on their calendars since the four-year agreement was announced so here comes the second of the four-game series between Pitt and Penn State.

Surely the parking lots will be buzzing early in the morning as fans from both sides of the state meet in the middle and while it's pretty much an equidistant trip for those coming from Pittsburgh and those from Philadelphia, I expect the product on the field to be lopsided.

Both of these teams are drastically different than they were a year ago at Heinz Field and given all the scoring this Penn State offense is capable of I can't see Pitt finding a way to hang with them. So hey, maybe the four-game series is split after Saturday's game and a winner could be determined in the final two meetings of the agreement.

"At this point in time we have such talent and we kind of know what we're capable of from practice, from spring ball, from training camp," senior linebacker Jason Cabinda said. "We know how good we can be and I think the past few seasons we didn't really know. ... Now that we've seen how good we could be, especially winning the Big Ten championship, I think now we know what we're capable of and we're trying to make sure we're always playing to that level."

The pick: Penn State 52, Pitt 17



OFFENSE 

Last year's game, particularly the second half, served as the coming out party for quarterback Trace McSorley and Joe Moorhead's offense. There was confidence built in that second half as the Lions marched down the field and nearly completed the comeback and also a realization that this team couldn't fall asleep for the first half and then expect to dominate in the second half and still win.

Being a four-quarter team is still a point of emphasis, but should Penn State get out to a fast start this time around it wouldn't be surprising to see this offense roll from there.

With Heisman contender Saquon Barkley taking on additional duties in the passing game this season -- coupled with his beloved wheel route which Pitt was torched on last week against Youngstown State -- the Lions should have the upper hand all across the board here. McSorley has his pick of weapons as senior receiver DaeSean Hamilton, who spent half of last season working to put that critical drop in the Pitt game behind him, certainly would like to make his mark known in this one.

Wide receiver Juwan Johnson showed last week he can stretch the field and also lay out across the middle, while tight end Mike Gesicki has been a matchup problem for just about every defense Penn State faced in the past 12 months. There's also receiver Saeed Blacknall, who was largely forgotten about in the opener and speedster DeAndre Thompkins, who made a spectacular grab in the game last season. Simply put, the Lions have too many weapons and this comes with an offensive line that this time last season had some new players to work in. Should Penn State want to thrown in a speed sweep or two of their own they have receiver Brandon Polk, who also wasn't a factor against Akron but could add a wrinkle or two to this one.

"They've got a lot of guys in that secondary," McSorley said. "They've got a returning corner, and a couple guys are coming in for guys that didn't play last year. They did a really good job, they're aggressive, they fly to the ball, really bent on trying to stop the run game and getting guys to the box. It's something that we're going to have to account for those guys in some way, understand that they're aggressive."

Trying to load the box and stop Barkley isn't something this Penn State offense hasn't seen before. That's been the blueprint for most teams since the start of last season and while they'll stay balanced and stick to the run, there's also a lot of other ways this offense can hurt them. Take last week's opening drive against Akron as an example. Barkley didn't touch the ball at all during it and McSorley took off for rushes of 7, 15 and 10 yards. Johnson hauled in a 16-yard reception, Thompkins caught a pass for 15 yards and Hamilton was targeted once across the middle. While the drive resulted in a pick in the end zone, it was indicative of the other ways the offense can beat someone.

"If a play call is not there, it's making it positive and getting positive yards," McSorley said. "I think that's the best way that you can get the whole team into a flow, you get the ball moving five, six yards, kind of starting the game off on a good note, getting that first first down, then you can use your tempo to your advantage and keep rolling. It's not necessarily one certain thing, it's really taking what the defense is giving you, not forcing things down the field and continuing to move the ball."

Penn State also showed some two-quarterback looks in the second half against Akron and James Franklin said after the game that Penn State plans to use those with McSorley and Tommy Stevens throughout the season. Whether or not Moorhead does anything with them this week or not, at the very least it's given Pitt's defense another wrinkle to prepare for in what looks like an uphill climb.

"They’ve got a lot of new faces from last year, especially in the front seven," offensive line coach Matt Limegrover said. "But the one thing I’ve always known and respected like crazy from coach [Pat] Narduzzi and his defense is they are really, really well-coached. … They’re not going to disguise, they’re not going to show, they’re not going to change significantly from week to week, but what they do they’re about as good in the country from a technique and assignment standpoint as anybody you’ll find. … We don’t have to do anything super human. We just have to be really, really good at what we do.”

And when this Penn State offense is really, really good at what it does and doesn't turn the ball over it's been almost impossible to stop. Given the way in which Penn State lost this game last year -- plus the in-state bragging rights that certainly are at stake both for the fans and on the recruiting trail -- I'd be surprised if Penn State even thinks of letting up late in the game.

DEFENSE

Penn State looked back at Pitt quarterback Max Browne's high school film, his time as the starter at USC, the Panthers' spring game and Pitt's season opener to try and get a better handle on what he'll try and throw at them. What they saw was someone who was less mobile than USC Heisman hopeful Sam Darnold, but Cabinda added that they're not taking Browne lightly.

"He's got a good arm and makes good reads," he said. "It's a guy we'll have to watch out for and make sure we're doing a good job with our personnel and disguises to make sure he can't read us pre-snap."

Last season, Penn State was caught off guard after the Panthers went vanilla in the opener so certainly Narduzzi has more up his sleeve on both sides of the ball, but preparing for a different coordinator and quarterback wasn't something that seemed to worry this Penn State defense.

"I don’t think it’s that big of a difference," senior cornerback Grant Haley said. "After watching the film this weekend I think they’re going to do what they do and that’s run the football and do play action and take shots down the field when they think it's necessary. It's more of a controlled passing game with very minimal shots, but we know as a defense we’re prepared for anything. When you play a team like Pitt they’re going to come out strong, come out fast, we just need to be ready for anything that could happen and trust that everything we watched in film and worked on in practice will be what they come out and throw against us."

Penn State practiced for "game-wrecker" Quadree Henderson all week and also worked on sealing off a healthy dose of speed sweeps. While Pitt gashed the Lions on the ground last year, keep in mind it's a game that Cabinda, the middle linebacker, didn't suit up for.

While one player often doesn't sway a game one way or another, when that player is the middle linebacker who is tasked with communicating the calls, making sure the defense is lined up correctly and relaying that message to the secondary, it likely had some impact. Cabinda is the quarterback of the defense and he's well aware of how to adjust during this back and forth chess match that he'll have to call out on the fly.

Henderson isn't the only one who Penn State has to account for. Jester Weah's game-winning touchdown in Pitt's opener caught Haley's eye and making sure Weah doesn't torch Penn State deep will be worth keeping an eye on. This is a defense that Franklin said last week will play a lot of nickel so while it doesn't seem like Pitt has the weapons to spread this defense too thin, Weah certainly has big-play potential.

"We’re focused on him as the main wide receiver threat with Quadree as the guy who can bring the sweeps," Haley said. "We gotta just play with good eye discipline, play physical with them and his confidcene is building after last year. He had a very good season last year."

Penn State's deep rotation of defensive linemen will continue and while there were a few pleasant surprises up front last week, notably defensive end Ryan Buchholz and reserve tackle Tyrell Chavis, the Lions should return starter Shareef Miller, who exited last week's game after the first series. Reserve safety Ayron Monroe, who dressed but didn't play in last week's game, will be available this week, Franklin said.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is the one area where Henderson could help swing the balance in Pitt's favor. But, after Thompkins busted the slump and recorded Penn State's first punt return for a touchdown since 2008 in last week's game, the Lions certainly look capable of getting a big play or two in this area.

Friendly reminder: Penn State hasn't returned a kick for a touchdown since 2011 and this jarring statistic might appear in this space every week until it’s not true.

Tyler Davis will continue handling both kickoff and field goal duties and making sure kick location is on point is critical when there's someone as elusive as Henderson back deep. Should the opportunity present itself in the form of a sizable lead the Lions would continue working in redshirt freshman Alex Barbir on kickoffs as well.

"I think in the past, we have kicked the ball into the end zone probably a little bit more consistently, but we also didn't have hang time," Franklin said. "So, if that ball would ever be brought out without the hang time, it could create some stress and challenges on our coverage team. I like where we're at. I'd like to see a little bit more pop. I'd like to see a little bit more distance. But I also have a lot of confidence in our coverage team right now and how they're playing."

Last week's kick coverage unit for Penn State included a mix of the following players: Marcus Allen, Lamont Wade, Amani Oruwariye, Cam Brown, Tariq Castro-Fields, Juwan Johnson, Nick Scott, Brandon Smith, Irv Charles, Jarvis Miller, Manny Bowen, Josh McPhearson, Garrett Taylor and Saeed Blacknall.

The other area of intrigue comes on Penn State's kick return unit where Miles Sanders is atop the depth chart, but last week the staff determined that Barkley would be the first player back deep to return a kick. While the opportunity to return a kick didn't happen until the start of the second half, how Penn State uses Barkley in this role will continue to be monitored. Barkley fielded three kicks last season, one of which came in the Rose Bowl.

The good news for all of the specialists is that the weather forecast looks much better than the downpour Penn State played most of the first half in last week.

DON'T BE SURPRISED IF... Receiver DaeSean Hamilton has a memorable game. While the ball that slipped through the senior's hands is the moment that stands out from last year's game, it's easy to forget that Hamilton had eight catches for 82 yards during that meeting. That's one matchup Penn State could look to go back to, assuming Pitt keeps Barkley somewhat in check. If Barkley is slowed then Hamilton and the rest of these receivers could post some big numbers.

KEEP AN EYE ON... The pre-game hype where the Nittany Lions will drop the white banner and add the number 2016 to the Beaver Stadium facade, joining all of the football team's other championship teams, plus the 2012 group. While Franklin shrugged off knowing anything about Penn State picking the Pitt game for the unveiling back in May, whether intentional by Penn State or not it'll be worth keeping an eye on the reception when the number is shown. Penn State also announced that there will be a pre-game flyover. Oh and the handshake between the two head coaches is a must-see moment, right?