STATE COLLEGE, Pa. – The Nittany Lions practiced outside Thursday afternoon in the rain, an environment that could be duplicated Saturday afternoon at Northwestern’s Ryan Field.
With No. 4 Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) hitting the road for the second time this season when the Lions kick at noon on Saturday against the Wildcats (2-2, 0-1), they could be doing so in far from ideal conditions. With a 70 percent chance of rain in the forecast it could look like a sloppy, Big Ten clash, which with the power of the Lions’ offense – and having already played in a messy game during the season opener – the Lions’ wet ball drills will likely be on full display.
The pick: Penn State 41, Northwestern 17
OFFENSE
The Lions’ near 25-minute scoring drought last week against the Hoosiers was analyzed all throughout the week and so too was the play of quarterback Trace McSorley through these first five games. The offense has worked through lulls, operated with three different right tackles and has had to work on adjusting to the underneath routes. Still, for a group that averages 40 points per game there’s been far more good than bad.
Continuing to make their check-with-mes at the line of scrimmage and get into the best possible look for whatever the defense is presenting could mean more of the short or intermediate routes this week.
“I'd compare them to Iowa almost,” McSorley said. “They do a couple different things with their scheme, but if you look at their guys, they play hard, play well on the back end, put an emphasis on not getting beat deep and underneath everyone rallies to the ball and makes the tackle. ...Take the plays that are there. Take advantage of what they give us. Even if it's not the big deep shot. We have to put together drives and maintain it.”
Sustaining drives has been a problem a few times this season, notably with six three and outs after jumping ahead in the first quarter 28-0 against Indiana and then again against Iowa when the Lions posted just five points in the first half. Part of the inconsistency of the offense stems from the running game where the Lions are still looking to shore up their yardage between the tackles and needing the offensive line to be a little more physical and sustain their blocks just a tad longer could be the difference maker, James Franklin said this week.
Still, what will Saquon Barkley do this week? He’s already scored touchdowns four different ways this season – rushing, receiving, pass and kick return – and when there’s an x-factor like Barkley back there it can help make up for some of the inconsistencies. Barkley can pop loose at any moment, whether out of the backfield or catching passes and every week he’s found ways to showcase his skill and versatility to stay among the top of the nation’s Heisman candidates.
The Lions’ offense could look a little different against the Wildcats should tight end Mike Gesicki not be able to play this week. Gesicki, who exited the field in the first half against the Hoosiers and wasn’t on the sideline for the second half, was at practice Wednesday and Franklin said on Tuesday he expects Gesicki to play this week. Still, that’s far from a guarantee and should Gesicki not go, look for Jon Holland and Tom Pancoast to take on bigger roles. Still, there’s a noticeable drop off between Gesicki, one of the top tight ends in the country, and those behind him.
It also could put a little more pressure on the Lions’ pesky right tackle spot should they not have Gesicki.
Chasz Wright rotated in every few series in the first half against the Hoosiers after Will Fries earned the start. Wright didn’t play the week before against Iowa and presumably is still hobbled which is why Franklin said this experience has been “invaluable” for Fries. Senior Andrew Nelson continues working his way back from two season-ending knee injuries sustained the past two years and that’s certainly cut into the Lions’ depth there. They need to solidify the right tackle spot and, regardless of who earns the start, in all likelihood Wright and Fries will both play.
It’s up to McSorley to adjust the protections accordingly should center Connor McGovern not have them in the right alignment, something Franklin said they’ll need the quarterback to continue improving upon.
“I think our O-line is playing good enough to win but we need to get better,” Franklin said. “I'd say that about probably all of our positions. You know, you've got Will Fries who is playing for the first time as a red-shirt freshman and playing a lot. That's not ideal. There's going to be growing pains from that. But I've been overall pretty pleased with him. I think he's holding his own in big-time football as a 19 year-old. Obviously being able to get Chasz consistently back is going to be important for us, because he played down the stretch last year and played really well.”
The Lions saw more pressures up the middle as this season unfolded and, with Northwestern defensive tackle Tyler Lancaster being a player Franklin and the Lions identified as someone early in the week they need to always account for, the line could be tested.
Also, will we see the two-quarterback package after it was put on the shelf the last two weeks as a result of it just simply not being in the Lions’ plans?
DEFENSE
The strength of Penn State’s defense like any solid run defense starts up the middle. With Parker Cothren, Curtis Cothran and Jason Cabinda clogging the middle, the Lions will have to slow down Northwestern’s Justin Jackson.
Jackson has been up and down so far this season as the Badgers kept him bottled up last week with 25 yards on nine carries. Jackson had less than 30 rushing yards in the Widcats’ losses this season to Duke and Wisconsin. In their two wins against Nevada and Bowling Green, he’s had at least 109-plus rushing yards. If they can make the Wildcats one dimensional, then Brent Pry and the Lions’ defense should continue their dominant ways.
“Northwestern formationally is going to be more challenging,” Pry said. “That’s where the big difference is I’d say. They obviously are still committed to running the ball and they do it from a spread usually, but they are going to get in a bunch of different formations and get in a variety of shifts and challenges there. They do a nice job there and always have. I think they’ve amped it up a little bit this year.
"They have a senior quarterback who can run the show, so they present problems that way and when we play teams similar to ours, similar formationally or the RPO stuff, the shots," he continued. "We’re working against a heck of a group every day and it’s only polished our skills in a lot of different ways. When you have a dual-threat quarterback, and you see that so much these day, everybody is in tune with that and you’re not trying to emulate that in your scout team because you’re getting it when you go good on good, so it’s certainly a benefit.”
With a seasoned quarterback in senior Clayton Thorson the Wildcats’ defense at least boasts experience.
Still, the Lions’ defense has been more than opportunistic this season with seven interceptions from five different players and seven fumble recoveries out of eight forced fumbles. While the ball won’t always bounce their way at that good of a clip, it’s certainly impressive that they’ve made such strides in the takeaway department after giving it so much lip service in the offseason.
And should the Lions’ offense jump ahead early, it could really force the Wildcats to try and play from behind which would be difficult.
“I think [the key] would be early sacks,” defensive end Ryan Buchholz said. “They are getting the ball off and getting good chunks of yardage on passes, then they will get more confident and throw it a little bit more. So I think if we get some early sacks, some early stops, some early three and outs, they are going to have to change their scheme a little bit.”
The Lions should be as healthy as possible on defense since they got Amani Oruwariye back last week, giving them essentially three healthy starting-caliber cornerbacks.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The coverage units have been fantastic and so have the Lions’ return game with both a punt returned for a touchdown and a kick returned for a touchdown during the first five games.
Barkley and DeAndre Thompkins are sparks back deep and the coverage units, highlighted by Nick Scott and Irv Charles – the latter has been on a roll on special teams this season -- coupled with strong play from punter Blake Gillikin have all been positives this season.
However, the one glaring weakness yet again is the field goal unit. Tyler Davis is 5-of-11 this season and had a kick blocked in each of the past two games. It’s either been the kicker, the snapper, the holder or the protection at various points this year. If it was just one person or one problem that’s consistently creating the issue it’d be a bit of an easier fix.
If the Lions don’t get this cleaned up – and Franklin said he thinks they will as it’s mostly fundamentals and execution lapses -- it will come back to cost this team a game at some point this year. I can’t imagine how it wouldn’t based on how it’s performed thus far.
“I think really to be honest with you, if you take the blocks out of there, he's doing pretty good,” Franklin said of Davis. “He's doing pretty good,” Franklin said. “We're just going to continue to work through it. We've got a new holder. We've got a new snapper, and like I said, the blocks really aren't on him. You know, our operation time was fine. I wouldn't say the kicks were overly low. We just, when you don't block a guy through a gap and he comes screaming through free, you know, they are going to block the kick.”
Davis improved on kickoffs since the season started, but after hitting 22-of-24 field goals last year this season’s showing from the field goal unit has been a glaring problem.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF… The Nittany Lions keep the Wildcats scoreless through the first quarter. Penn State hasn’t surrendered any points in the first quarter through five games and should they jump ahead and force Northwestern to play from behind, this one could turn into a rout.
KEEP AN EYE ON… Senior cornerback Grant Haley. The last time the Lions were in Evanston, Haley had a brutal final sequence where an interception that would’ve sealed the game bounced off his chest and then he was beaten on a play that set up the Wildcats’ game-winning touchdown. It was a pivotal point of Haley’s career as that last drive motivated him, so should any errant passes come his way or if he has a break on the ball, look for him to try and make a statement.