STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- The most difficult part of the No. 2 Nittany Lions' schedule is here as James Franklin's squad puts its undefeated record on the line against Jim Harbaugh's No. 19 Wolverines.
"These next three weeks will tell us everything we need to know about Penn State," ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit said Friday afternoon. "It's been a great run, but you go Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State these next three weeks, and if they get through these next three weeks I think they'll prove that they're one of the top teams, if not the top team in the country."
Can the Lions continue to improve on that 15-1 record since they last played Michigan 13 months ago?
The pick: Penn State 23, Michigan 17
OFFENSE
Penn State's success will likely be determined in the trenches, a place that's been problematic for Penn State this season. The Lions surrendered a total of 13 sacks in the past three games and will continue rotating right tackles Will Fries and Chasz Wright while keeping Brendan Mahon at guard.
Against a defensive line as strong as Michigan's this offense will have a tough task, and Franklin hinted this week that the Lions will find a way to help their offensive line this week more than they have in the past. Now, whether or not that means putting more on the tight ends to help out in pass protection remains to be seen -- with Maurice Hurst and Rashan Gary up front, it's enough to give any offense pause.
"We got a challenge," Franklin said. "Between the combination of style of defense they play, then the athletes they're playing. A number of guys, you have Lavert Hill who is playing well for them at corner. There's a number of guys that are going to be a challenge for us.
Add in the Wolverines' man-to-man coverage and Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown, the man Franklin coached with for a year at Maryland and who this week described his defense as "greedy," and Joe Moorhead's group has its work cut out for them.
"They play a lot of man-to-man coverage. I bet you a big part about how Penn State tries to attack is to get Saquon [Barkley] isolated one-on-one against a linebacker," Herbstreit said. "If I'm Michigan I've got to find an answer to that. I just think he's as elusive of a guy, for as big and as powerful he is, as any back I've ever seen."
Michigan's defense is known for its aggressive and physical style, while this Penn State offense -- while still very potent -- has had spells where it has struggled to consistently run the ball, and whether or not this offense looks like it did for much of the Northwestern game or like it did during the two-minute drive against Iowa remains to be seen. Finding that consistency hasn't been easy, but with extra time to self-scout and prepare I'm hard pressed to think Moorhead won't have some new wrinkles to showcase.
"Michigan has a very physical defense," wide receiver DeAndre Thompkins said. "They're very fast. And they have a lot of trust in their secondary. They have a lot of guys who have a lot of speed and their technique's sound. They play a lot of man the majority of the game. Basically we've just seen guys who are very sound in their technique, with footwork and attention to detail. And these guys are very comfortable with being 1-on-1 on the outside and that's something that they do pretty much every game."
DEFENSE
Michigan quarterback John O'Korn will have a homecoming of sorts when he runs out of the visitor's tunnel Saturday night, but the Wolverines will need him to play much better than he has these past few weeks.
However, talking with defensive end Shareef Miller after the Lions' practice Wednesday night it's clear that the Penn State defense seemed a little irked that much of the attention this week surrounded Michigan's top-ranked defense instead of their own productive -- and to this point surprising -- group. Miller has been among those pleasant surprises.
Just how personal did they take last year's 49-10 thrashing at The Big House, specifically the 326 yards it gave up on the ground? Well, check out this week's pinned tweet from starting linebacker Manny Bowen.
.... pic.twitter.com/ejRiADc756
— manny bowen (@mannybowens3) October 16, 2017
Yeah, the way this defense was burned last year by Michigan did not sit well despite the Lions not wishing to rehash that during any media availabilities this week. The Lions continue to hit their goal of three takeaways per game and continue limiting the number of explosive plays allowed. It's a much improved group than the one that left Ann Arbor with more injuries than points on the board, but this team is 15-1 since that game and a large reason for the success this season is because of the defense.
While this Michigan offense is a far cry from being elite, if they can grind out drives and keep the Lions' defense on the field there's no doubt a slower style of play favors Michigan. And, should the Lions' offense not be able to move the ball and continuously put this defense back out on the field, it could be a challenge.
The takeaways have bailed this defense out in huge ways, masking some of the plays they've surrendered, and that's huge in its own right, but the Lions have to get off the field and a lot of that will start with Jason Cabinda, the middle linebacker that ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit has a bit of a "bromance" for, as Herbstreit's College GameDay colleague Rece Davis put it.
"There's something about him as the key of the defense, the quarterback of the defense," Herbstreit said. "There's a lot to like there. He's more of a traditional Mike linebacker, likes to play in the box, but he'll have a lot of opportunities to make plays in this game."
SPECIAL TEAMS
Was all the self-scouting about the field goal unit worthwhile during the bye week? Penn State will not make any sweeping changes to this group, rather saying it's just a matter of execution, so we'll see if Tyler Davis and the rest of the Lions' special teamers can put together a performance that won't result in more questions about what needs to change with this group.
And, keep in mind Michigan kicker Quinn Nordin will be making his Beaver Stadium debut. Once a Penn State verbal pledge with one of the most elaborate commitment videos ever seen, Nordin then flipped his pledge to Michigan, making that airplane commitment video something that I highly doubt the Penn State student section will forget. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to have a little fun with the Wolverines' kicker especially after the way his recruitment unfolded.
But, this game very well could come down to one or two key special teams plays. It was the White Out game last year when the Lions' special teams put to rest an otherwise poor special teams showing for three quarters against Ohio State by returning the blocked field goal for a touchdown that changed the trajectory of their season and of Franklin's Penn State tenure. With the level of competition drastically heating up this week and next, the Lions have to be crisp in the third phase.
Punter Blake Gillikin has been rock solid and the Lions' coverage units much improved, as well. Thompkins and Barkley both have the speed, vision and blockers to explode for a touchdown. Keep in mind Thompkins' second punt return for a touchdown this season was wiped off the board against Northwestern because of a penalty, another reminder of just how much of a threat he is back there.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF... The Lions find some other way to get Barkley involved. Franklin hinted at as much after the Northwestern win two weeks ago. While we've seen Barkley throw a pass, return kicks, rush for touchdowns and take on a bigger role as a pass catcher, there likely are other ways they can set him up a little differently than what we've seen. The name of the game is getting No. 26 1-on-1 in space, so perhaps there's a new look or maybe even a little trickery that comes into play?
KEEP AN EYE ON ... The sidelines during warmups should you be among the 107,000 or so who attends. Otherwise, I'll have you covered in the live file. This is the big recruiting weekend and the Lions will have plenty of visitors on hand, so seeing who Franklin greets on his way into the stadium will be among the finer details leading up to this one.