COLUMBUS, Ohio -- This is the one Penn State fans has circled on their calendars for a long time and Ohio State has done the same.
It's a revenge game of sort for the N0. 6 Buckeyes, whose shot at the College Football Playoff hangs in the balance while the Lions put their 7-0 mark on the line along with their No. 2 ranking, the program's highest since 1999. The winner has the inside track to the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis while a loss would sink Ohio State. That stakes don't get much higher than Saturday's 3:30 p.m. showdown at The Horseshoe.
The pick: Ohio State 27, Penn State 24
OFFENSE
Penn State's offense is riding high after showing off new offensive wrinkles last week in the form of putting Saquon Barkley in motion and allowing him to get the ball off of direct snaps. The Lions' offensive line was a positive against Michigan last week as well so can Penn State put together a similar type of performance against another strong defense for a second week in a row?
One has to think the new looks Penn State showed last week will continue to factor into this week's game plan given the success Penn State had because of it. Ohio State's defense isn't as lethal as it was last season when it comes to the secondary, but as has always been a staple of the Buckeyes' D, the defensive linemen can wreak havoc.
"Elite defense," James Franklin said. "Everybody all off season's talking about their D-line, obviously they got tremendous depth, size, athleticism, power up front. That's kind of been their calling card. Coach [Larry] Johnson obviously does an unbelievable job with them and has his whole career. They pressure a good amount, they're a 42 percent pressure on normal downs. And obviously Nick Bosa. ... There just seems to continue to be great players from that family playing for Ohio State. So he's going to be a challenge for us and then obviously Jerome Baker."
Add in some crowd noise, which will certainly be a factor as the Buckeyes are calling for a Black Out at The Horseshoe, and for a second consecutive week all eyes will be on this offensive line. The Lions do have valuable experience on the road dating back to their game at Iowa where the fans at Kinnick Stadium were practically on top of the Lions' sideline, but they'll need redshirt freshman right tackle Will Fries, center Connor McGovern and the rest of the line to keep Trace McSorley upright and give him enough time to deliver his throws which of course helps keep this defense -- one that's likely zeroed in on slowing Barkley down -- honest.
Keeping it to third down and manageable distance will be a huge part of that as well.
"Third and longs they run that outlaw look -- what outlaw is they put two three tech's two fives and they put four defensive ends in and it's kind of like their pass rush package," left tackle Ryan Bates said. "And they put Bosa in there, they put Tyquan Lewis in there, Sam Hubbard in there, they're all four very good defensive linemen and, yeah, it's hard to block, but I feel like we're going to do really good against them this year."
McSorley was sacked twice and threw one interception against Michigan last week, but was lights out in the second half. One of the areas where the Lions should have an edge is with the matchup mismatch that is 6-6, 252-pound tight end Mike Gesicki. He's a redzone threat for every team and whether or not the Lions opt to take him off the field and plug in Tommy Stevens for that two-quarterback package that Lions had success with earlier this season remains to be seen.
The Lions certainly have the confidence stemming from last year's upset in their back pocket, but especially coming off the bye week I expect the Buckeyes to disguise some new looks that maybe Penn State hasn't seen before. One turnover here or there could be the difference in this tight matchup.
"Ohio State, they’re going to sprinkle in a few different coverages throughout the game," Gesicki said. "We’ve seen them play man, we’ve seen them play Cover 4, we’ve seen them play a little bit of three, so I mean they’re definitely going to put out some different looks for us throughout the game, but in terms of man coverage I think it’s about being a competitor at wide receiver, tight end or running back. Anybody who has to defeat man coverage it’s something that you look forward to and it’s exciting. You vs. the man in front of you and may the best man win.”
DEFENSE
Penn State's defense worked through numerous "cage drills" this week in an effort to try and maintain lan integrity when it comes to needing an all-out effort to slow down dual-threat quarterback J.T. Barrett.
"You have to be aware that someone has the ability to scramble and we face that every day with Trace and Tommy, but that quarterback’s ability to extend the play you definitely have to be aware of it," defensive line coach Sean Spencer said. "But you just can’t be cautious because that’s when you’ll get stomped."
So how does one strike that balance between aware and not cautious?
Barrett is the one player who could give the Lions fits and this is a Penn State defense that while holding opponents to 9.3 points per game hasn't been tested by and offense like this. Kevin Wilson's group is ranked No. 3 nationally and while Penn State has won the explosive play margin in every game this season -- and is nearly putting up twice as many explosive plays as they opposition -- should one player lose contain Barrett could make it a long night for the Lions.
"Early in the season they were still trying to kind of find their offensive identity and they found it now and they're putting up big time points and yards on everybody and you knew it was just a matter of time because Kevin's such a good coach and they got so many good players," Franklin said. "I see J.T. playing with a lot of confidence right now and he's obviously surrounded by a lot of talent."
Barrett has 21 touchdowns to just one interception this season, a mark that leads many to believe he's passing the ball better than he ever has. The mobility part of his game hasn't been questioned during his start-studded career.
"Early in the season they were still trying to kind of find their offensive identity and they found it now and they're putting up big time points and yards on everybody and you knew it was just a matter of time because Kevin's such a good coach and they got so many good players," Franklin said. "I see J.T. playing with a lot of confidence right now and he's obviously surrounded by a lot of talent."
One of those talented pieces is freshman running back J.K. Dobbins, who is another once highly-touted prospect who carried the ball 100 times for 775 yards and five touchdowns thus far.
The Buckeyes' tempo was a focal point this week and while the defense works against a high-powered Penn State offense daily in practice, Ohio State's speed with which they reel off plays is different than the Lions'. Penn State hurries up between plays but takes their time at the line of scrimmage to make sure they're in the right look and if not adjust into it. This hyper speed could present challenges.
"They're playing confident right now," cornerback Grant Haley said of Ohio State. "There's a lot of speed, and they have got a great running back, one-two punch going on right there. Obviously with J.T.'s leadership at the helm of the team he's really taken control of that offense and they're playing some really good football right now."
There's also wide receiver Parris Campbell to account for, a player who is a threat in the kick return game and has elite speed to go with it. Campbell has 28 catches for 405 yards and two touchdowns and is also the Big Ten's leader in kickoff returns with a 39-yard average.
"He's a dynamic player," safety Marcus Allen said. "They try to use him like they used Curtis Samuel last year. He definitely caught my eye. He's a really good player."
SPECIAL TEAMS
It was the third phase that swung this game the last time these two teams met and one has to think that even the smallest of slip ups on special teams could again be the difference maker in a game that should be this close.
Ohio State has Campbell as a threat in the return game while this time around the Lions can match that threat with Barkley as the kick returner and DeAndre Thompkins back as the punt returner. Both players have one special teams touchdown this season and could be game changers in this one.
Penn State's field goal unit has been under the microscope of much of this season as Tyler Davis continued to settle in with a new snapper and a new holder while protection issues popped up from time to time. The Lions didn't have these problems converting successful extra points last week against Michigan so is it safe to say this problem is in the rearview?
Also, punter Blake Gillikin continues to be one of Penn State's top weapons and his heady hustle play last year to chase down a snap that sailed over his head and instead turn it into a safety instead of an Ohio State touchdown proved huge. While Haley's scoop and score is the play fans remember from last season, the Lions' special teams in that game up until that point struggled.
Should the weather be a factor in this one -- and it very well could be -- one has to wonder what Davis' range is in poor conditions and whether or not that will factor into this one.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF... Ohio State uses last week's bye to their advantage. We saw this play out with Penn State as the Lions went back to some wrinkles they worked on in camp and it paid dividends.
Keep in mind Meyer's record coming off bye weeks is remarkable. He hasn't lost a game coming off a bye since 2001, his first season at Bowling Green. It was a redshirt freshman named Ben Roethlisberger whose 305 passing yards propelled Miami (Ohio) past Bowling Green that year.
Franklin said this week that he thinks the bye week is certainly advantageous and with the Buckeyes rested and likely with a few tricks up their sleeve I think that could have a huge impact on this game. It's one of the main factors why I'm giving the Buckeyes the edge, that and home field advantage.
KEEP AN EYE ON... The weather forecast. It's not looking as bleak as it was earlier in the week, but should a downpour happen and the cold air sets in that could be an entirely new factor in this one.
Penn State didn't have any rain to work with in practice this week, but a couple weeks ago got in plenty of bad weather reps and also was slated for a rainy game in Northwestern that ended up just being extra windy. Franklin and the Lions work outside in the elements all the time and regularly do wet ball drills, but in a game with such a small margin of error even the weather is working looking into.