STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Both teams are coming off dramatic losses and one of them will have to try and carry the hefty and unorthodox Land Grant Trophy off at the field at the conclusion.
"You look at Penn State's record against Michigan State during the Big Ten era and we need to work really hard to make sure that we keep the Land Grant Trophy as much as we possibly can because we take a lot of pride in it," James Franklin said. "It's one of the cool things about college football. Its beauty comes from its unorthodox and unique qualities."
The No. 7 Nittany Lions haven't lost back-to-back games with Trace McSorley as their starting quarterback, going 16-2 in their past 18 games so how they respond on the road, after a loss and in the midst of the team's toughest three-game stretch will be telling. This is Penn State's biggest test of these final four games and while it comes after two physical games against Michigan and Ohio State, the Lions will need to overcome injuries and find a way to pull this one out against No. 24 Michigan State to keep their estimated 14 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff alive.
The pick: Penn State 30, Michigan State 20
OFFENSE
Michigan State's strength, again as usual, starts with their defense. The Spartans likely are going to try to limit Penn State's deep shots, trying to keep everything in front of them and that will force Trace McSorley and the Lions' offense to work some of the short, intermediate passes which certainly tests their patience.
Now, before the Lions can even get that far, the questions start with the injury situation up front. Should left tackle Ryan Bates not play on Saturday, and it's looking more and more like that will be the case as Franklin said Wednesday the Lions weren't waiting for any additional reports from the medical staff, which likely means the Lions will start the game with the same one it ended the Ohio State game with. That means Will Fries is likely the starter at left tackle and Chasz Wright comes off the bench to start at right tackle. It's far from ideal for a team that's struggled with the ground game and faces another physical front.
At this point, with the Lions coming off big-time games against Michigan and Ohio State -- and the pounding that goes with them -- the Lions spent a portion of the week discussing the importance of continuing to stay as healthy and as recovered as possible between games. Add injuries to that and this offense will have some challenges to overcome off the bat.
"Aggressive four-down front," Franklin said. "Their linebackers I think are the difference makers on their defense. Really their front, they had some young players last year that have grown up in the secondary, doing a nice job there. ... Very productive at middle linebacker. Really the whole unit plays well. Justin Layne plays well. The defense, Kenny Willekes, excuse me if I didn't pronounce your name right."
Will Penn State have the patience required to take the shorter yardage plays? That'll be a key as will how this offensive line holds up with personnel changes and should either of these tackles go down then the Lions created some contingency plans this week. Again, far from ideal, but all teams have injuries and at this point in the season Penn State has to count on Saquon Barkley getting involved in different ways to try and keep this offense humming.
Maybe we'll see the Lions going back to creative ways to get Barkley involved because the negative yardage runs they had last week were one of the team's focal points this week and making sure Barkley doesn't try to do too much is part of that. Surely that's easier said than done with arguably the top back in college football who has the home run potential every time he touches the ball.
Wide receivers coach Josh Gattis was very high on the production of receiver DeAndre Thompkins and while this offense doesn't really allow one player to post eye-popping numbers every single week, the Lions' big-play threat could be the guy to try and take the top off the defense if and when Penn State takes their shot plays. Franklin wasn't pleased with Penn State's conversion on explosive plays last week and while a lot goes into in -- including the offensive line needing to hold up so McSorley has time to work the ball downfield -- Penn State wo the explosive play battle in seven of eight games this season.
We're plus 14 in turnover ratio, that's number two in all of college football," Franklin said. "We made an emphasis of getting better on third down. We've talked about that a lot. We've been better. ... We need to be more explosive. That [Ohio State] game we were not explosive. We didn't have the big plays we had in the past that, as you guys know, over the last two years, that's been kind of our eraser for some of our issues."
DEFENSE
Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke has thrown 14 touchdowns to 3 interceptions this season and if and how Penn State gets to him will be key. The Lions' pass rush fizzed against Ohio State and with starting defensive end Ryan Buchholz hurt, where will those snaps go?
While the Lions won't give an injury diagnosis on Buchholz, he left last week's game on crutches and had his left foot in a boot. That's certainly not a good sign so don't look for him to play and what does Penn State have without him? Well, there's speed-rush specialist Shaka Toney who took on the brunt of the reps last week, but Franklin said Toney played too many snaps. There's true freshman Yetur Gross-Matos, who will take on an increased role, but again he's a true freshman. Then, there's redshirt freshman Shane Simmons. I found it interesting that Toney played more snaps than the highly-touted Simmons last week and we'll have to see if Simmons has made enough progress in his 17 months on campus to take on an increased role.
However, what I think Penn State will do is get that spot filled by working to one of their strengths -- their versatility. Kevin Givens can play inside or outside and while he came to college as a defensive end and had to grow into a tackle, the might kick him outside to go opposite Shareef Miller, while keeping Parker Cothren and Curtis Cothran inside. The Lions think of Givens as a third starter along the interior and his quick-twitch and explosive movements could present some real challenges for offensive tackles. Plus, they have depth inside with Robert Windsor, Tyrell Chavis and Ellison Jordan, a luxury that right now they lack at end.
"We use him a lot in our loops," linebacker Jason Cabinda said of Givens. "He's just very good at bending the corner, getting around, getting his hips back squared against the quarterback. He's very good at that."
That certainly sounds like someone who could help out this depleted group.
Also, Penn State fans will surely remember that last season's matchup wasn't as lopsided -- at least in the first half -- as the final score indicated. The Spartans moved the ball and if the Lions' front can't generate a consistent rush -- or if their blitzes don't get home -- this secondary will be asked to hold up far longer than possible, something that really hurt Penn State in the second half last week when J.T. Barrett burned them with seven completions of 15-plus yards.
While this offense is drastically different -- think Michigan, think Stanford -- and well less explosive, being able to lock in on Michigan State's play-action plays will be a challenge.
"It’s pretty hard," cornerback Christian Campbell said. "As a cornerback you have to keep your depth and keep great eye disciple. The coaches obviously want us to fit in the run game, but you know we pass players first so it’s all about going where your eyes take you and if it’s a play action and you see play-action, then you play pass and as a cornerback we have to fit to the run late. We have to keep great eye discipline."
Said Franklin: "They're going to run the power, the counter, the pin and pull and the zone play. A lot of play-action pass. Boots, nakeds, dropback. I think the thing that's making them go is their quarterback, Lewerke. He's a pro style quarterback, but has the ability to beat you with his feet, has made a bunch of big plays there."
SPECIAL TEAMS
It looks like the Lions' kicking-game woes are a thing of the past, but after a superb special teams performance with a Barkley kick return for a touchdown and a 59-yard return from Koa Farmer, the tighter splits led to the decisive blocked punt that ended up costing the Lions.
So, there will be plenty of attention on the third phase, but Penn State's ability to have game changers on special teams certainly swings this phase in the Lions' favor. Thompkins and Barkley both showed this year they've got big-time punt and kick return skills and punter Blake Gillikin has been one of the Lions' top weapons each of the last two seasons. Should Penn State's offense stall out and have trouble moving the ball, they'll need the special teams to at least put the defense in a favorable starting position.
Wide receiver Irv Charles continues being a key player on special teqams, using his size and explosiveness to dart down the field. However, what Penn State can't have is a penalty like the senseless one Charles had in the first half last week. He's been flagged a bit so he'll have to put that behind him. The weather shouldn't have too much of a factor in this one for the specialists but it's November and the Big Ten so it's always worth monitoring any last-minute changes or wind gusts that could pop up.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF... Penn State comes out swinging and uses some of the more interesting concepts we've seen them run previously, like the two quarterback looks, the direct snaps and motion plays to try and get Barkley and Tommy Stevens involved early. Both teams have to put it all on the line to keep their post-season hopes alive so if Penn State can create a mismatch in the redzone with Stevens coming in the game and Mike Gesicki coming out then that's what they could try to do. They haven't used it in a few weeks so at some point it has to reappear, right?
KEEP AN EYE ON... The Lions' travel roster. While it usually comes out an hour before kick -- and I'll be sure to include the highlights of it in the live file -- the potential severity of some of the injuries of this team could be more obvious should the players not even make the travel roster. Considering Buchholz left the Ohio State game on crutches and with his left foot in a boot I'd be hard pressed to see him traveling. With Bates' status up in the air after limping off late in the Ohio State game whether or not he can go will be dictated by his status. Penn State does travel injured players on occasion, like cornerback John Reid, but as the injury crunch presses on one has to wonder if they have much flexibility with their travel roster size to bring some of these banged up veterans along. If not, who are the younger players who were worked into these contingency plans?