STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- It's one final home game and a last chance for Beaver Stadium to get some use before getting winterized shortly after the No. 10 Nittany Lions run off the field.
With the Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-6, 3-4 Big Ten) making the trip to Happy Valley, it should be the perfect remedy for a Penn State (8-2, 5-2) team that needs to find some balance on offense and figure out how to get Saquon Barkley and the run game back on track. Penn State will honor the senior class prior to kickoff, but all eyes figure to be on Barkley, the junior standout who in all likelihood will play his last game in Beaver Stadium.
The pick: Penn State 41, Nebraska 10
OFFENSE
Can this offense get Barkley over the 65-yard threshold that hasn't been surpassed in any of the last three games? Well, two key details should lead to a big day on the ground for Joe Moorhead's offense. One, the Huskers' porous run defense is ranked 105th in the country, with teams running for an average of 200 yards per game, or 5.25 yards per carry. Two, the Lions' line could get a boost from the potential return of starting left tackle Ryan Bates, who missed the past two games due to injury.
While Bates' availability on Saturday is far from certain, the fact that he at least was dressed and at practice this week should have him trending upward. And, what better way for senior lineman Brendan Mahon to end his Beaver Stadium career than by putting together a physical game, something Franklin has been bugging him and the rest of the line about.
"I actually think you're going to see our offensive line take a step this week," Franklin said Thursday night on his radio show. "I'm confident, they've kind of gotten the message and they're prideful guys. ... I think you'll see progress."
Trace McSorley spoke this week about the need for the Lions' offense to get back to being balanced and while he's been solid keeping the offense going despite it being one dimensional, they need to have the run game to make the rest of this offense as explosive as possible. They have the weapons on the perimeter and in the backfield, but if the offensive line and tight ends can't turn the corner it won't matter much.
However, the quarterback said there are plenty of areas where he can continue to improve on this season.
"The top one for me, the one I put the most emphasis on, is decision-making and protecting the ball," he said. "I think I've done that better this year, but it's definitely hurt us in a couple of games where you're forcing some throws and you have to be more accurate."
Penn State's need to eliminate the negative yardage plays continues to be a focal point and while Franklin traces it back to the offense needing to be more physical up front and sustain their blocks just a bit longer, if the Lions can't run the ball against this Nebraska team then perhaps these problems up front are worse than thought.
Remember, this has been an issue all year and while it's come to a head during the past month -- largely because of the two losses -- they need someone to set the tone up front and seemingly that person is Mahon, the only senior starter on the line. Should Bates play, that would allow Will Fries to move back to right tackle and would return Chasz Wright to a backup role.
Also, after how tight end Mike Gesicki's blocking was criticized during last week's broadcast, expect there to be extra eyes on him looking at the one area of his game that's been the biggest struggle for him during his collegiate career.
With the clock winding down on Barkley's collegiate career, some additional carries for Miles Sanders should be in order. Also, if this one ends up lopsided as expected, Tommy Stevens could also get some valuable reps late in the game, too. That's huge for development, and at this point in the year all of that comes into play.
DEFENSE
Another week, another debate about whether or not the pass rush will take a step forward. That's just where this defense is at. Much like the offense where the problems have been with the play up front, on defense it's really been the same thing.
Starting linebacker Manny Bowen is suspended for the second consecutive game. Senior Brandon Smith should get the start at the Will linebacker spot and maybe starting defensive end Ryan Buchholz returns to the field this week. Much like Bates on the other side of the ball, Buchholz was injured in the Ohio State game and missed the last two starts, and in his place the Lions have struggled.
They kicked Kevin Givens out to end and relied on Shaka Toney, Shane Simmons and Yetur Gross-Matos. The drop off in production has been noticeable and Franklin has lamented the lack of a pass rush most of the season, but especially as of late. However, the issues up front also are not entirely surprising given the youth there. Buchholz back would mean fewer reps for his backups, which makes their value go up and Toney is more of a threat as a situational rusher, and Simmons and Gross-Matos are in their first season contributing.
The good news for the defense is that for the second week in a row they face an offense that is in a bit of a predicament. Now, any offense is going to look like an upgrade after the lowly Rutgers squad that failed to eclipse 50 yards through the air last week, but Nebraska's quarterback situation is up in the air for Saturday.
Quarterback Tanner Lee was in concussion protocol this week and whether or not he's cleared by Saturday afternoon is unknown. Mike Riley said should Lee be cleared, then the quarterback would be good to go, but if not then Patrick O'Brien will make his first career start.
"The starter, he can make every throw. Lee is probably one of the better quarterbacks we're going to face," Penn State cornerbacks coach Terry Smith said. "He's a true pocket guy. He stands tall in the pocket and he can deliver any throw. When he's hot he's as good as anyone in the country. We have to make sure that we make the pocket not so comfortable for him, but they have a good passing attack. They threw the ball for 350-plus against Ohio State and they've thrown it pretty well against just about everyone that they've faced."
Making the quarterback uncomfortable has been Penn State's glaring problem. But what's the difference between Lee and O'Brien, since the Lions surely will be keeping a close eye on warmups on the other side of the field?
"He obviously doesn't have the experience that Lee has, but he can still make the throws. He was 12-of-18 last week which means that he's efficient," Smith said of O'Brien. "The difference is I think he doesn't have the experience. ... They're both pocket guys and both can deliver throws."
The Lions continue working their deep group of cornerbacks into the mix, including the two freshmen in Lamont Wade and Tariq Castro-Fields. Every rep has value for these younger players. One player to keep an eye on is linebacker Cam Brown, who pretty much split time with starter Koa Farmer last week. Franklin said afterward they want to continue using Brown in more ways the rest of the season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Lions' third phase has been as asset all year and if conditions were at least normal then maybe this would be a different story. However, the weather forecast for the 4 p.m. start does not look promising. In fact, Penn State has already shut down various parking lots for Saturday in anticipation of messy weather.
With temperatures expected to rise to the mid 40s with wind and rain, the forecast also includes potential thunder late in the game. This means there will be an added emphasis on ball security, on the snapper, on the holder and of course on senior kicker Tyler Davis and Penn State punter Blake Gillikin.
The good news for Penn State is that they practice outdoors when it's raining for this very reason and they also have the experience of the messy, delay-filled Michigan State game a couple weeks ago to draw on. Realistically, bad weather means the Lions could be more inclined to pass up on some of their deeper field goal opportunities, but all in all they have enough experience on this third phase that a rough forecast certainly shouldn't be an excuse.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF... Many of Penn State's fans try to hang on until the end of the game to see Barkley likely run off the field one last time. With a senior class that's been instrumental in bringing the program back, the pre-game senior day ceremony is always a time where fans have a chance to say goodbye to some of their favorites, but for Barkley his likely final walk off the field will be one that surely fans will want to remember. If he breaks out for a big game, which seems likely against this run defense, it would be a fitting Beaver Stadium sendoff for one of the best players in the program's history.
KEEP AN EYE ON... Any shifting in the secondary where starting safeties Marcus Allen and Troy Apke are playing their final home game, meaning two spots are up for grabs next season. Should this be a rout, this is a good chance for Ayron Monroe to continue making his case to see the field beyond his key role on special teams. While his likely counterpart, or at least one of the challengers is Jonathan Sutherland who is redshirting this season, Nick Scott, Monroe and Garrett Taylor all will be part of the future of this position.