The 30 general managers across Major League Baseball held their annual meetings in Orlando this week, generating speculation about possible trades and free-agent signings.
The Cardinals, equipped with one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, have been connected to the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton. The Cubs are seeking a top-of-the-rotation starter to potentially replace Jake Arrieta. Unlike last year, there was no speculation on Andrew McCutchen, although the Pirates were connected to Neil Walker.
Neal Huntington's shopping list this winter is short and contingent on the returns of McCutchen and Jung Ho Kang, but it likely won't include a proven starting pitcher.
Clint Hurdle and Huntington expressed a desire to keep the rotation of Gerrit Cole, Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams intact for 2018.
Is the status quo enough, though?
"I think what we’ve got is five solid," Hurdle said during the final homestand of 2017. "We’ve got an ace. We’ve got a No. 2 in Nova. We’ve got Taillon, who's three. Figure out (the order of) four and five. ... We believe we put ourselves in a very good position to have a strong rotation moving forward, and a rotation that’s going to give us every opportunity to be better than many think we’re going to be.”
However, the rotation was average in 2017. Cole allowed a career-high 31 home runs, and Nova had a 5.83 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break. The Pirates' starters had the seventh-lowest ERA in the National League, ranking fourth among teams in the Central Division.
But they used only seven starters — tying the franchise record for fewest used in one season — and the Pirates had the third-most shutouts in Major League Baseball. Additionally, five pitchers had at least 115 strikeouts for the first time since 1984.
Rather than adding a veteran starter for 2017, Huntington chose to take a sizable risk by leaning on three young starters behind Cole, whose development was slowed by injury in 2016, and Nova, who had yet to pitch a full season in a major-league rotation.
Although Taillon had the pedigree — he was selected No. 2 overall in the 2010 draft — he was unproven in the major leagues, having just 19 career starts with the Pirates after missing two seasons because of injuries.
Kuhl's command was shoddy during his 14 starts in 2016. Tyler Glasnow, meanwhile, did little to earn his spot, struggling with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings during spring training.
The plan was for the offense to provide enough run support to help with any growing pains. But the Pirates missed the playoffs for a second consecutive season with an offense that ranked 27th in batting average, 28th in runs, 29th in home runs and 28th in OPS.
Jung Ho Kang was unable to enter the United States following his DUI conviction. Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games. Gregory Polanco was limited to 108 games by three stints on the disabled list because of a recurring left hamstring strain.
Glasnow faltered, but Taillon, Kuhl and Williams proved to have staying power.
"Obviously, coming into the year we were counting on production from our young starters," Huntington said last month. "Gerrit continues to be a quality Major League starter. Nova, really good in the first four months and then between the names and the group that we had, if you would have told me we would have had six starters essentially until September that would have been a surprise. But the production level is something we anticipated. We knew we had options and numbers to have it play out throughout the course of the year."
Although the young arms have intriguing upside, neither of the top two starters performed up to his position in the rotation.
Cole, who turned 27 in September and finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2015, had a 1.25 WHIP in a career-high 33 starts — 12 more than his injury-shortened 2016 — and had the second-highest strikeout total of his career while ranking third in the National League in innings. Additionally, he averaged 8.69 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.1 fWAR — the second-best mark of his career.
But Cole allowed 1.37 home runs per nine innings — the seventh-worst mark in the National League — including at least one home run in 21 of his starts to finish with a 4.26 ERA which, according to ERA+, was 1 percent better than the league average.
Nova, who had 52 stikeouts to just three walks in his 11 starts with the Pirates in 2016, had a 2.83 ERA through his first 13 starts this season and was named National League Pitcher for the Month for April. His ERA inflated to 4.25 by the middle of September.
Although he made a career-high 31 starts, Nova's home run-to-fly ball ratio was 15.8 percent, which was the 10th worst among Major League starting pitchers with at least 150 innings. Lefties slashed .309/.342/.516 against him with 16 home runs.
His 4.41 ERA was slightly better than the league average, but like Cole, Nova will need to be a top-of-rotation starter for another gamble on this rotation to help the Pirates return to playoff contention.
“A lot of positive things,” Nova said following his final start regarding what he learned. “Physically, you gotta work on something, but a lot of times, it’s mentally. A lot of times, it’s not clear enough. Sometimes at game time you’re pitching bad, but it’s more mentally. … Took a little while, but finally getting it at the end.”
The options behind those two also have much to prove. Consider this:
• In his first full season in the majors, Taillon finished with a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 25 starts. He averaged 3.1 walks per nine innings, yet he did a better job of generating soft contact from opposing hitters.
There's reason to believe the 26-year-old will improve, too. After all, he has the pedigree, and he missed five weeks this season because of testicular cancer.
• Kuhl, a 2013 ninth-round pick, revamped his pitching arsenal during the season. His fastball velocity increased, reaching 100 mph four times. He also developed a curveball in May, helping him record a 1.9 fWAR in a career-high 31 starts. That came after he relied mostly on his sinker and slider throughout the minor leagues.
Yet, he remained inefficient and continued to struggle against lefties, who slashed .301/.358/.496 against him. His 4.35 ERA was slightly above league average, and he completed six innings only eight times. More time working on his new arsenal could lead to improvement, but perhaps he's reached his potential.
• Williams, a second-round pick of the Marlins in 2013, began the season in the bullpen and did not move to the rotation until Taillon was placed on the disabled list May 6. He held onto that spot upon Taillon's return, leading to Glasnow's demotion to Triple-A.
Williams, who will turn 26 in April, ranked second in ERA among major-league rookie starting pitchers with at least 150 innings. He had a 2.02 ERA with 15 strikeouts and eight walks over his final eight starts. Additionally, Williams completed six innings in 12 of his 25 starts and five innings in 20 of his outings. He's a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter, but the Pirates' rotation may have one too many of those.
Rather than adding an additional arm this offseason, Huntington has expressed confidence that each of the five will improve in 2018. If he doesn't add another starter, there are also few internal options to lean on if injury occurs or performance from the bottom three dip.
Steven Brault, a 25-year-old lefty who was the Pirates' minor-league pitcher of the year, had a 1.59 WHIP in his five major league starts this season and is a candidate to begin next season in the bullpen.
Glasnow had 140 strikeouts in 93 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season, but he had a 7.69 ERA and 2.01 WHIP in 62 innings with the Pirates.
Nick Kingham, a 26-year-old right-hander who has shown promise, showed improvement at Triple-A this season, but had only 16 total starts in 2015 and 2016 because of injuries.
So, it sounds as if Huntington will take the same mindset in 2018 that did not pay off in 2017: Gamble on the rotation while relying on the offense to improve. Will that be enough for the club to rebound, though?
"The number and quality of the young starters we have, the number of quality young relievers we have, is encouraging going forward and we’ve got some offense that we believe can bounce back," Huntington said. "Again, as we said earlier, we’ll look to improve in other ways as well."