LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — When the offseason began, it seemed likely the Pirates would keep Andrew McCutchen for 2018, rather than exercising his team option only to trade him this winter.
After all, McCutchen will make only $14.5 million in the final season of his contract. However, Neal Huntington is now deciding whether to take one last run with the current core or begin what could be a rebuild. With the Winter Meetings underway here at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort, a number of teams have expressed interest in McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison, according to multiple reports.
The trade offers are likely becoming more desirable as the offseason progresses, and Huntington admitted to fans at PiratesFest on Saturday that he is keeping an open mind, offering no reassurances that McCutchen, Cole or Harrison will return.
"We’re going to have to make some hard decisions and in doing so we’re sometimes going to frustrate fans that want us to put everything in the middle," Huntington said. "Those fans probably aren’t going to be happy when the time runs out, that window closes and we’re back to losing an awful lot of games for an extended period of time to rebuild. Our mindset is retool. If we have the right moves. ... We do some good things above and beyond that there’s a chance to win a World Series."
Interest in McCutchen and Cole is likely increasing with the top two prizes off the market. The Giants missed out on both Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, who was dealt to the Yankees on Saturday.
They may prefer an outfielder under club control for more than one season, and have been connected to several outfielders available via trades. MLB Network's Jon Heyman reported recently that the Giants have stayed in contact with the Pirates about McCutchen.
Additionally, the Dodgers were thought to be Stanton's preferred destination, but were unable to acquire the reigning National League MVP because of salary tax concerns. McCutchen would be a cheaper alternative at a much shorter commitment.
Prices in free agency are also high. The top two free agent outfielders — J.D. Martinez and Lorenzo Cain — are each projected to receive a contract for at least $16 million per season.
Huntington has said publicly the Pirates' best club in 2018 would feature McCutchen in center field, but he has been non-committal when asked about McCutchen's future in radio interviews and at PiratesFest.
Sure, that could be a general manager not showing his full hand in hopes of other teams making more lucrative trade offers. But the more likely scenario is that trade interest has picked up over the past month.
"The challenge becomes how do we sign Andrew McCutchen and build a championship team around him, because our belief is that the fan base would rather cheer for a championship team than one really popular player," Huntington said Saturday. "How do we build a championship team around him? That’s the hard part about this. We would love Andrew McCutchen to retire a Pirate. We also want to win a World Series championship. At times, those two are contradictory.”
Cole would garner a hefty return considering he is entering his second of three arbitration-eligible seasons and is projected to make $7.5 million in 2018. He will be a free agent following the 2019 season and has shown potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Acquiring him via trade may be a more attractive option for many clubs, considering the contracts given to Tyler Chatwood (three years, $38 million) and Miles Mikolas (two years, $15.5 million) in free agency.
Harrison, meanwhile, has been connected to the Mets and Blue Jays — both teams in need of help at either second or third base. Ivan Nova and Francisco Cervelli could also draw interest.
Huntington has to consider payroll, as well as the pieces the club needs in free agency. Including the projected salaries for the four arbitration-eligible players, the Pirates' payroll is projected at $102 million, which would set a franchise record for opening day.
Their opening day payroll for 2017 was $100,575,946, which ranked 25th in MLB. They need to supplement their bullpen, possibly add starting pitching and could use a third baseman with more offensive upside than David Freese since the Pirates are under the assumption that Jung Ho Kang will not be able to enter the country.
On the other hand, Clint Hurdle called the starting rotation one of the best he's worked with in his career as a coach or player, and McCutchen's teammates have voiced confidence in the current core, which is expected to receive full seasons from Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in 2018.
"As of right now I don’t think we need anything," Felipe Rivero said. "We got Cutch, we got Polanco, Marte now is going to be full-time with us. Mercer, some of the guys, Josh. I think we only need probably one more guy in the starting rotation or probably one of the guys that we have that comes back."
According to La Prensa, a newspaper based in Mexico City, the Pirates are the favorite to sign Jaime Garcia, a left-handed starting pitcher, but Garcia is projected by Heyman to receive a two-year, $18 million contract this offseason.
That's the price for a bottom-of-the-rotation, 31-year-old starter.
Not adding to the roster would be a significant risk, considering the rotation lacks an ace, the bullpen would be relying on youth and neither José Osuna nor Adam Frazier are proven options to start over Freese at third base.
The Pirates are in need of talent in the minor leagues. Their farm system was ranked among top 10 in MLB entering 2017, but it has fallen with Josh Bell graduating from prospect status.
Austin Meadows is still viewed as McCutchen's eventual replacement, but he struggled when he was healthy at Triple-A this season, batting .250/.311/.359 in 72 games. Mitch Keller, the organization's top pitching prospect, was exceptional in the Arizona Fall League but he has pitched only 34 2/3 innings above High-A.
Shane Baz, the club's first-round draft pick this summer, had a 1.69 WHIP in 23 2/3 innings in the Gulf Coast League. Other prospects such as Ke'Bryan Hayes, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman and Taylor Hearn have shown potential, but wouldn't be considered elite.
Capitalizing on the value of McCutchen and Cole could help strengthen the system. However, ownership must also consider the public backlash of a rebuild. Attendance at PNC Park ranked 25th in MLB in 2017 and local TV ratings dropped 27 percent — the fifth-largest drop in the majors.
But Huntington has stated his intent and that of the organization is to compete consistently. The question remains whether they think keeping McCutchen or any other member of the current core is in the best interest of the Pirates.
"We’re going to be open-minded to how and where," Huntington said. "How do we make this club better for the long term? How do we make it better for the short term? Is there a balance? Do we have to swing the pendulum a little bit in one direction or another? Again, our focus comes back to putting the best club on the field as consistently and as frequently as we can."