LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — During a lengthy media session on Day 3 of the Winter Meetings Wednesday, Scott Boras said he has not seen any signs that the Pirates are considering trading his client, Gerrit Cole.
However, Boras, the sport's most prominent agent, understands why the rumors have surfaced. Cole is under contract for two more seasons at a discounted rate, plus he's shown potential to be a Cy Young candidate. That's particularly attractive considering prices on the free-agent market are so high.
It also appears the Pirates have developed a reputation around the industry.
"I have no evidence of that," Boras said at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort. "Whenever you're a great player in Pittsburgh and you've got four years service, people start talking about luggage. That's just part of what the Pirates do and have done. As far as I know, I think Gerrit is going to be a principal part of their plan for 2018."
Since the Winter Meetings began Monday morning, Cole's name has surfaced as a potential target of the Yankees, Orioles and Twins. Each of those three teams is pursuing the top starting pitchers on the market — including Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish — but the bidding will be high for both pitchers.
Cole, on the other hand, is projected to make $7.5 million in 2018, which is his second of three arbitration-eligible seasons. He's still only 27 years old and despite his bouts of inconsistency has proven capable of being a top-of-the-rotation starter.
The first overall pick of the 2011 draft, Cole has thrown at least 200 innings in two of the past three seasons, including 2015 when he was named an All-Star. Cole was limited to 116 innings in 2016 because of injuries, which according to Ray Searage, negatively impacted his development as a starting pitcher.
He returned in 2017 with a 1.25 WHIP in a career-high 33 starts — 12 more than his injury-shortened 2016 season — and had the second-highest strikeout total of his career while ranking third in the National League in innings. Additionally, he averaged 8.69 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.1 fWAR — the second-best mark of his career.
But Cole allowed 1.37 home runs per nine innings — the seventh-worst mark in the National League — including at least one home run in 21 of his starts to finish with a 4.26 ERA which, according to ERA+, was 1 percent better than the league average.
Although Boras typically waits until his clients are closer to free agency to negotiate a long-term extension, it's unlikely that the Pirates would be able to retain Cole. Barring injury or regression, he could command a contract near $200 million.
Arrieta is reportedly asking for more than $200 million and although he is a Cy Young Award winner and a World Series champion, he's 31 years old and has thrown 1,161 innings. Cole will be only 29 when he reaches free agency and is likely to have thrown roughly the same amount of innings as Arrieta.
The club is unlikely to trade him in the interim, though, unless they receive a significant package that they cannot turn down. Neal Huntington told reporters Monday afternoon that he is open to trading one of his starting pitchers, either a veteran or prospect, if it helps the Pirates both in the short and long term.
After all, the organization also has Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault, Tyler Glasnow, Nick Kingham, Mitch Keller, Taylor Hearn and Luis Escobar. But Huntington is also in a position of power in negotiations with clubs that could be interested in Cole.
Cole's club control for two more seasons would make his price astronomical in a trade. Yes, the Yankees did not surrender any of their top-tier prospects in their acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton, but they'll likely be unwilling to part with a player like shortstop Gleyber Torres.
At the Winter Meetings last season, Huntington was in trade negotiations with the Nationals about Andrew McCutchen, but Washington instead acquired Adam Eaton. According to multiple reports, Huntington insisted on the Pirates receiving center fielder Victor Robles in the trade.
When he wouldn't budge, the Nationals pivoted to Eaton. The expectation within the Pirates' organization is that Cole will only improve in 2018. Huntington has spoken over the past week that the Pirates could "retool," rather than make any significant additions to complement their current core.
Boras was asked if it could be better for Cole to go elsewhere if the Pirates do deploy such a strategy, and he said the decision will come down to whether or not the club wants to make a push to the playoffs.
"I'm not sure that meeting is happening," Boras answered. "I'm not sure the Pittsburgh Pirates are talking, 'Ya know, let's sit down and talk about what's best for Gerrit Cole.' I think they're talking about what's best for their franchise and how they can best leverage him, utilize him for their immediate needs and maybe there's ... again, that's a franchise that their franchise values have quadrupled since they bought it and ownership may decide to take a different tack at being more on the road to 'Playoffville.' We'll see."