The entrance to the lobby of the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort. - LANCE LYSOWSKI / DKPS

Pirates

Lysowski: Cutch, Cole in demand, but Harrison likeliest to go

Dec 13, 2017 • 12:00 am

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LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — "So, what are the Pirates actually going to do?"

That question was posed to me by one agent in the lobby of the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort during Day 2 of the Winter Meetings, and my answer was convoluted.

"Well, they could trade Andrew McCutchen if the price is right," I replied, "but it doesn't look like it will be. The same can be said for Gerrit Cole, or any player on the roster. And your guess is as good as mine with Josh Harrison."

Their offseason strategy is convoluted, though. They could either stand pat or rebuild. Neal Huntington has repeatedly said that he keeps an open mind during the offseason and will always listen when other teams call. Any general manager would.

But it's becoming clearer by the hour how this will play out, and no, it doesn't involve trading McCutchen or Cole.

Harrison will be dealt.

And this club can ill afford to lose him.

The Giants' interest in McCutchen makes sense. They have a deep farm system that would be of interest to the Pirates, and San Francisco's center fielder of the future, Steven Duggar, is expected to be ready for the major leagues by the end of 2018.

McCutchen's club option will pay him $14.5 million this season, which would provide the Giants with an elite center fielder who can hold the position until Duggar is ready. However, a number of teams are trying to trade outfielders who are under contract beyond 2018, such as the Marlins' Marcell Ozuna and the Reds' Billy Hamilton.

Simply put, if the Giants are going to part with valuable prospects for an outfielder, they'd rather get someone who will be on the roster beyond this season. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reported Tuesday that McCutchen is no longer a priority for the Giants. Additionally, they are seeking either speed or power. McCutchen wouldn't provide enough of an improvement in either category to merit the type of return the Pirates would want.

And the Pirates should ask for a significant return.

After all, they would likely receive one for McCutchen if they wait until the trade deadline, when contending teams are seeking an upgrade because of injury or underperformance. And hey, maybe the Pirates will be contending at that time.

Sure, Huntington will listen to anyone who calls about Cole. The prices in free agency for top-tier starters are astronomical, and Cole is under club control for two more seasons at a discounted rate. He's projected to make $7.5 million through arbitration in 2018.

The Pirates have leverage in negotiations. They would be happy to keep Cole for at least one more season. On the other hand, they could demand a significant package of prospects, and potentially a player who is major-league ready.

Cole, who turned 27 in September and finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2015, had a 1.25 WHIP in a career-high 33 starts — 12 more than his injury-shortened 2016 — and had the second-highest strikeout total of his career while ranking third in the National League in innings. Additionally, he averaged 8.69 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.1 fWAR — the second-best mark of his career.

His value will still be high a year from now, so there's no rush to trade him, although Huntington told reporters Monday he's open to trading a starting pitcher.

They have Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault, Tyler Glasnow and Nick Kingham on the 40-man roster, as well as Mitch Keller, Taylor Hearn, Luis Escobar and Gage Hinsz in the minor leagues.

But he also knows how valuable pitching can be.

"We do like our depth," Huntington told us Tuesday. "We talked about it yesterday that it’s something we could trade from, whether it’s our veterans, whether it’s our young guys, whether it’s our prospects. At the same time, we have to be cognizant, especially with the prices in the industry and where the cost of starting pitching or even the cost of relief pitching is going in the free-agent market, we have to be very cognizant of developing our own."

One industry source told me that the Harrison trade rumor "has legs." The Mets and Blue Jays are thought to be interested in Harrison, who will make $10.25 million in 2018 and has club options for the following two seasons. He's only 30 years old and was just selected to his second All-Star Game, batting .272 with a .339 on-base percentage, 16 home runs and 47 RBI before a broken finger ended his season in September.

There are few second basemen available in free agency. Neil Walker is reportedly seeking a four-year deal and other players on the market are deficient offensively. Harrison is likely the top target available via trade. His versatility would be valuable to many teams, particularly the Mets, who have a need at second base and could use help at third to spell David Wright.

Adam Frazier would take over as the starting second baseman with Max Moroff and Sean Rodriguez serving as bench options. That's far from ideal. Frazier is deficient defensively at second, and Moroff isn't a major-league player.

The Pirates also can't afford to lose Harrison's presence in the clubhouse.

That became all the more evident when Rodriguez told reporters at PiratesFest on Saturday that the chemistry in the clubhouse hasn't quite been the same since the team traded "a big piece of the core" following the 2015 season.

Not only is Harrison a big piece of this core, but he's a passionate leader and well-liked by all. He and McCutchen are close friends. Well, the man seems to be close friends with everyone on the team, and he was one of the few players who seemed to always be smiling this season, even during the lowest times.

Yes, clubhouse chemistry does matter, as Clint Hurdle explained to me at PiratesFest:

But this is the reality of Pirates baseball. They'll use the payroll relief to sign some complementary players, but a chance to build on what is a solid foundation will be passed on yet again. And soon — either sometime in 2018 or beyond — McCutchen and Cole will be gone, as well.

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