LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — Despite the resurgence of Andrew McCutchen and the emergence of Josh Bell, the Pirates' offense was among the worst in Major League Baseball in 2017.
They ranked 27th or worse in batting average, runs, home runs and slugging percentage — the type of numbers that could influence a general manger to try to add an impact bat via free agency or trade.
Although Neal Huntington told reporters at the Winter Meetings he is exploring external options for third base and a backup outfielder, he and Clint Hurdle have expressed confidence in the current roster's ability to rebound in 2018.
At the root of that confidence: Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte and to a lesser degree, Francisco Cervelli.
"I've said it all along, I’ve said it since the end of the season through this point, it’s getting the core group of men on the field with consistency," Hurdle said Thursday on Day 3 of the Winter Meetings. "First and foremost, it's getting Polanco on the field. It’s getting Marte on the field. It’s getting Cervelli on the field and keeping them on the field. ... I think the group mindset is definitely one of being tougher outs, getting on base more often and more damage."
All three players missed significant time in 2018. Polanco had three stints on the disabled list, limiting him to 108 games. Cervelli, who turns 32 in March, was on the disabled list four times, including twice for a concussion, to limit him to 81 games. Marte, on the other hand, served an 80-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.
Additionally, the club did not have Jung Ho Kang, who hit 21 home runs in 103 games in 2016. That alone could account for the steep offensive regression, which contributed to the Pirates missing the postseason for a second consecutive season.
Dan Szymborski‘s well-regarded ZiPS projections, a computer-based model that projects future performance, had those four players combining for 53 home runs and 231 RBI last season. The group fell well short of those numbers and their replacements did not fare well, either.
Kang was unable to enter the country, Polanco had 11 home runs and 35 RBI, Marte delivered seven home runs with 31 RBI in 77 games and Cervelli had five home runs with 31 RBI.
In their absence, Hurdle was forced to use players such as Chris Stewart, Elias Diaz, John Jaso, Adam Frazier, José Osuna and Danny Ortiz. That group combined for 135 RBI, but having to play Frazier in the outfield forced Hurdle to use David Freese more often at third base, which negatively impacted Freese's offense.
So, the Pirates are of the opinion that having Marte and Polanco back will solve their roster predicament. With three healthy outfielders — if McCutchen stays — Hurdle can choose to deploy either Frazier or Sean Rodriguez as the team's fourth outfielder. The other can spell Freese at third base, offering Hurdle more flexibility than he had a year ago.
If Cervelli falters, the Pirates have Diaz, who excelled defensively during the final month of the season. Hurdle and Huntington said Diaz is capable of being an every day catcher. However, there is no contingency plan if Marte or Polanco falters.
The Pirates are relying on projections of future performance, but they are hopeful for a number of reasons that the faith they have in both players will lead to success. That's the challenge when evaluating the current roster, although these two players can be difficult to project.
"We’ll play it out and we have to be aware of what are the ceilings for each guy and what is the floor for each guy," Huntington explained at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort. "How many guys are we expecting to be at a mid-range or a 50th percentile, and how many guys do we feel like we need to be at the 75th percentile projection to be a playoff-caliber team? ... How do we compare [to other teams]. What’s the probability?"
Projections don't take into account the human element of the game. After all, there was no way of projecting that Marte and Polanco would miss significant at-bats in 2017. But the expectation is that both will perform much closer to their potential.
According to ZiPS projections for 2018, Marte will slash .278/.334/.412 with 11 home runs, 52 RBI and 28 stolen bases for a zWAR of 2.6, which would be second on the team behind McCutchen.
Polanco, meanwhile, is projected to produce .268/.328/.437 with 16 home runs, 64 RBI and 15 stolen bases for a zWAR of 2.3. And there's no way to truly measure what effect improvement by both players could have on the performance of teammates, particularly more runners in scoring position, which could lead to more run-scoring opportunities for whoever bats behind them in the order.
Whenever a player tests positive for a performance-enhancing substance, there is often concern whether or not past performance was real. However, the Pirates have no such concerns about Marte. Huntington cited the left fielder's strong finish to the season, which included a .314/.371/.429 slash line in the final 28 games.
Additionally, Marte is beginning to have success in the Dominican Winter League. After a slow start for his hometown team, Leones del Escogido, the 29-year-old is 12-for-30 with five stolen bases in his past seven games.
"It's a fair question," Huntington said when asked about the validity of Marte's past success. "Here’s a guy that hit almost 20 home runs two years ago. Hit nine home runs but had a better on-base and had a better batting average, showed the same explosiveness and power pre-suspension going back days, weeks, months, years as he did even when we saw it in September. We saw the same explosive athlete. Still saw the same impact. Still saw the same raw power. Still saw the same arm strength and defensive ability. It’s a fair question. We still saw the same physical traits (pre- and post-suspension)."
Polanco, on the other hand, is spending his offseason in a reconstructed training program that focuses on lower-body strength, improved diet and more baseball-centric workouts in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Hurdle called his exit interview with Polanco "one of the more in-depth conversations we had," because everyone involved wanted to solve what has ailed the 26-year-old outfielder.
Polanco slashed .251/.305/.391 in 2017 and 22 percent of contact he made was classified as weak by FanGraphs. Additionally, he swung at more pitches outside the zone than any other time in his career and his isolated power dropped .065 from 2016, when he hit 22 home runs with 79 RBI.
"First and foremost it was trying to find a way to reclaim that athleticism that he had coming up," Hurdle said. "Whether his focus was on getting big or getting strong, the combination of the two, we do believe, took away from some athleticism. How that played out in the overall stretching component of his flexibility. ... Sometimes we're getting so caught up in a training mindset that we lose the playing mindset, so there needs to be a combination of the two."
According to Hurdle and Huntington, reports on both players have been glowing so far this offseason. If both do match next season's projections, they'll represent a discount for the financially-conscious franchise.
Polanco will make $4.1 million in 2018 and is under contract through 2023 with club options for the final two seasons. Marte will make $7.833 million and is under contract through 2021 with club options for the final two seasons.
Considering that price and the upside they've shown at times, the Pirates are willing to gamble this offseason for both to produce.
"Absolutely (they are what we need). With the way they can impact the game on offense or on defense," Huntington said. "To have them on the field on a consistent basis, doing what they are capable of doing, they absolutely are. On any given night, either of those guys can be the best player on the field. It’s just a matter of how often they can be the best player on the field."