FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- To be honest, I can't recall Tom Brady playing a worse game than the one he had Monday night in the Patriots' 27-20 loss at Miami.
He looked uncomfortable from the opening snap, and never really trusted what he was seeing. Openings in coverage -- ones he normally anticipates before the ball is even snapped -- went unnoticed. Matchups he usually exploits went untargeted. Balls that could produce a big gain if thrown to the outside shoulder went to the inside. Deep shots were consistently underthrown. And he reacted to pressure that wasn't there.
Not exactly the best way to head into the biggest regular-season game of the season on Sunday in Pittsburgh. But that's where Brady and the Patriots are.
The big question is: Could Brady's issues linger against the Steelers, or was it just one bad game?
The short answer? This was likely just a momentary blip in Brady's otherwise sterling performance this season. I will allow there could be injury issues that are more of a problem than they appear -- he's been on the injury list with an Achilles, and TV has caught him flexing his throwing hand in consecutive weeks. But outside of that, the downturn in Miami appeared to be a confluence of factors:
• Not having Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman: This one is obvious and has well been well-worn at this point. Both of Brady's favorite targets are mismatches in man coverage, and how opponents cover them — either as a tandem or if one is injured — quickly dictates decisions for Brady. Without them, the decision of where to go with the ball is much more difficult and, often, time-consuming. Plus, both are usually a quick and easy throw for Brady. The good news is Gronkowski — and a rested Gronk at that — will be back against Pittsburgh. That changes everything.
• The gameplan lacked anticipation ... and maybe that wasn't an accident: The Patriots knew they were playing this game without Gronkowski, yet it appeared as if Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick didn't anticipate how that would change what Miami did defensively from the first matchup two weeks ago. The Patriots looked completely surprised that the Dolphins played so much man coverage and ramped up the blitz. I mean, why wouldn't you do that when you don't have to worry about doubling Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, Dwayne Allen and a just-cleared Chris Hogan? Perhaps McDaniels and Belichick didn't care. I mean, I wouldn't blame them. The Miami game essentially meant nothing. Everything is still there in front of them if the Patriots beat the Steelers on Sunday. Why not spend most of your time – if not all of it -- by recycling the plan from two weeks prior, watching Steelers film and gameplanning for that matchup? Especially since you're going to have one less day of preparation than Pittsburgh because you played on Monday night. But whatever the reason, that was not the normal fastball with movement from McDaniels. It was more like batting practice (and he's not immune to that either).
• Brady wasn't sure what he was going to get: This is related to the previous two points. Without a player to dictate coverage and their normal anticipatory gameplan, Brady wasn't sure where to go with the ball. He usually knows before the snap. But against the Dolphins, he was flying by the seat of his pants. We've seen this in other games (most matchups with Rex Ryan's spin-the-dial Jets, the first half of Super Bowl LI when the Falcons played more man coverage, the 2011 loss at Pittsburgh when Dick LeBeau tossed his zone blitz scheme for straight press man coverage) so it's not a totally foreign experience. That's why whether this was a just a bad game has much to do with Mike Tomlin's Steelers. If they come out and play their normal, seen-on-film scheme, the chances are very likely that Brady, with Gronkowski on the field, will continue his dominance against the Steelers. But if they throw a curveball (and many of them at that), then Brady could continue to have issues.
Here are the positional ratings against the Dolphins:
Quarterback (1 out of 5)
I looked back at my ratings for the past two seasons, and I couldn't find anything that came close to this outside of the first two-plus quarters of the Super Bowl. I had Brady for five "plus" plays, and 14 "minus" plays, including six decisions. All are off-the-chart numbers for Brady. He was just out of sorts the entire game. ... The first interception was underthrown. The second one was worse … First down of the next drive, Brady had two options in the middle (Rex Burkhead had his hands up), Brady threw a worm burner into the turf. … On the first play of the fourth quarter, Patriots run a perfect play against pressure: a rub with Hogan going to the sideline. Brady doesn’t throw it outside, goes for 1 yard instead of a possible touchdown. ... Next drive, first down: Brady throws to Allen in the flat for 2 yards when if he pump fakes to Allen, he’s got Amendola for a huge gain in the middle of the field. ... Second-and-20 play in the fourth quarter, Brady threw a prayer to Hogan when he had Amendola on a corner route. ... Just a totally out-of-character game for Brady.
Running backs (3.5 out of 5)
Really good game by Burkhead, and both he and Dion Lewis could have used more substantial touches (not just outlets in the flat) in the passing game. ... Matchups with Lawrence Timmons and Kiko Alonso were begging to be exploited. ... Would love to know why James White (hurry allowed, illegal motion penalty) isn't finding more of a role as a receiver, especially with Gronkowski out. You would have thought, without a role in the backfield and in the wake of the Edelman injury, the Patriots would have transitioned him to full-time slot receiver by now. ... Another strong game from fullback James Develin.
Receivers (2 out of 5)
No Gronkowski to draw coverage left the rest of the receivers exposed as ensemble pieces, including Cooks, who struggled coming out of his breaks in this game. ... Amendola should have had a bigger role. ... Hogan was not ready for this game and was a liability blocking in the run game on multiple plays.
Offensive line (1.5 out of 5)
Third-highest pressure rate of the season behind the Texans (52.3) and first Dolphins matchup (51.7), and the fourth-highest stuffed run rate. Not good. ... Left tackle Nate Solder's seven total QB pressures allowed matches the season high he set vs. the Chargers. He only allowed two in the first matchup. Andre Branch, who is not good, came to play on Monday night. ... Left guard Joe Thuney allowed 4.5 pressures for the second time this season (Texans). He's allowed 10 TQBP in the last three games, which is 44.4 percent of his season total. He's struggling right now. ... The rest of the unit, in order of performance (starting with the best): Right guard Shaq Mason, center David Andrews and right tackle Cam Fleming (who actually did a good job vs. Cam Wake with lots of help). ... The Patriots did, however, execute a screen pass!
DEFENSE
Defensive line (3 out of 5)
Left end Eric Lee had some issues holding the edge, and he appeared to miss a hit on a crosser, but he produced 45.5 percent of the team's pressure, so he was the pass rush. Lee has led the team in pressure in Trey Flowers' absence and produced 1.5 sacks in the other game. Lee is not some flash in the pan because of his surprising burst. He should unequivocally be the starter when Flowers and/or Kyle Van Noy return. Flowers and Lee could actually develop into a competent pass-rushing duo. ... When Alan Branch went out with a knee injury, Lawrence Guy stepped up and he was awesome. Strong and powerful. ... Deatrich Wise is still lost to the rookie wall, but the coaches could help him out a little bit more. He obviously struggles rushing from the interior and needs to solely be on the outside to be effective.
Linebackers (2.5 out of 5)
Marquis Flowers was very good on the outside, and you have to wonder why the coaches didn't think about switching his coverage responsibilities with Elandon Roberts, who got exposed without any adjustment help. That's not his game. ... Jordan Richards' missed sack was one of the biggest plays of the game and cost the Patriots four points.
Secondary (2.5 out of 5)
Over the course of the game, the coverage continued to be excellent, but Miami did hit some plays. ... Malcolm Butler is still peeking for the ball. That’s not how the Patriots play. Got away with it in the end zone, and on a deep pass when Jakeem Grant dropped a sure touchdown. ... Eric Rowe was terrific when he got into the game. Given Butler's struggles playing within the scheme, you have to wonder if the coaches are considering sitting Butler for a Rowe-Jonathan Jones-Stephon Gilmore combo. Might not be this week, but could be worth a look. But Jones did struggle a little and was replaced by Rowe. Not sure if that was for performance or just to get a look at Rowe. ... Patrick Chung had a strong game against the run and tight end Julius Thomas. ... Duron Harmon could have provided Roberts with more help on the 47-yard pass to Kenyan Drake.
THREE UP
Lawrence Guy: If it wasn't for his performance in the middle after Branch went out, the Dolphins may have rushed for 300 yards.
Eric Lee: Was the entire pass rush. He's no joke. He has staying power.
Ryan Allen: One of the rare occasions when a great performance by the punter (47.2 average, 46.4 net) made a huge difference.
THREE DOWN
Nate Solder: He should get a breather this week against a rookie in T.J. Watt who doesn't bring much in the pass rush.
Tom Brady: Probably his worst game since the 2013 loss to the Jets and Ryan.
Chris Hogan: His only contribution was drawing a pass interference call on a pass that didn't even land in bounds.