Since Tom Brady broke onto the scene in 2001, the Patriots have been to seven Super Bowls, winning five.
Beyond Brady and Bill Belichick, those seasons have one other thing in common: Every season the Patriots have finished the season hoisting the Lombardi Trophy they have either been the No. 1 or 2 seed in the AFC playoffs.
So no matter how much New England (10-3) tries to sell its game Sunday at Heinz Field against the Steelers (11-2) as just another regular season game, that's simply not the case.
While the Steelers could all but lock up the No. 1 seed throughout the AFC playoffs with a win against the Patriots, a loss would drop New England into a situation where it would need some help to avoid being relegated to the No. 3 seed behind Jacksonville. The Jaguars (9-4) would own the tiebreaker over the Patriots based on conference record if the two teams finished with the same record.
The Steelers clinched the AFC North championship with their win over Baltimore last week, while the Patriots could clinch the AFC East title with a win against the Steelers.
"If we worry about the playoffs, we'll go down there and we'll get killed, honestly," said Patriots safety Devin McCourty. "This is too good of a football team to worry about anything else that surrounds the game, the implications."
The Steelers have taken a completely different tack.
There has been a buzz surrounding this game since the NFL announced its schedule in the spring. The Patriots defeated the Steelers twice last season, 27-16, in a game at Heinz Field in which Landry Jones started in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger, and 36-17 at Gillette Stadium in the AFC Championship.
The Steelers got a first-hand look at trying to beat Brady both at home and on the road and would much prefer to do the former rather than the latter. That's why the Steelers didn't mind when Mike Tomlin mentioned this game as being the "elephant in the room" a few weeks ago in an interview with Football Night in America's Tony Dungy.
They don't feel there can be too much hype surrounding this game.
"I don’t think so, not with the whole situation at hand and the backstory," said guard David DeCastro. "We know how tough it is to go to their place in January."
And they would like to avoid that at all costs, not because they fear playing on the road, but because they know Brady's playoff record. He's 17-3 in games played at Gillette Stadium and 3-4 in the road playoff games.
Two of those road playoff wins have come in Pittsburgh -- in the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championships -- something few Steelers fans are ready to forget.
They also know Brady owns a 10-2 record against them, including a 5-0 mark at home. He's 5-2 at Heinz Field, but just 3-2 in games in which Roethlisberger starts. That's why the Steelers have embraced the importance of this game.
"I love it," said Tomlin. "It’s good to be in big games. It’s better to be in big games than ones that nobody is watching. We better be appreciative of this spot and not resist it in any way, but embrace it because this is what we’ve been fighting for since March. To be in these types of games against these type people. Why would you fight that? It’s an awesome thing."
Said Roethlisberger, "There is obviously a lot at stake but there is more at stake in a championship game, (with) chances to go to the Super Bowl, which they did and we didn’t, so still a big game, still a regular season game. But it’s one that’s got some implication moving forward."
THE ESSENTIALS
• When: 4:25 p.m.
• Where: Heinz Field
• Streaming: CBSSports.com
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Satellite: SiriusXM Channel 82 (Internet 826)
• Forecast: Evening Rain, 40
• Lots open: 11:30 a.m.
• Will call open: 2:30 p.m.
• Gates open: 2:30 p.m.
• Boxscore: NFL Game Center
• Odds: MyBookie.AG
THE INJURY REPORT
Steelers: TE Vance McDonald (shoulder, out), CB Coty Sensabaugh (shoulder, questionable), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring, questionable), CB Joe Haden (fibula, questionable)
Patriots: LB Kyle Van Noy (calf, out), DT Alan Branch (knee, out), DB Brandon King (hamstring, out), DL Trey Flowers (rib, questionable), CB Stephon Gilmore (ankle, questionable), LB David Harris (ankle, questionable), WR Chris Hogan (shoulder, questionable, Not expected to play per ESPN), WR Matthew Slater (hamstring, questionable), OT LaAdrian Waddle (ankle, questionable), DL Deatrich Wise (foot, questionable)
BIG GAME PLAYERS
How much high-end talent will be on display in this game?
Well, the NFL ended its Pro Bowl fan voting Saturday and the top three vote getters, regardless of position, will be on display at Heinz Field.
Le'Veon Bell won the overall voting, bringing in 855,539 votes. Second was Brady with 833,481. Coming in third was Antonio Brown, who got 832,446.
Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski finished ninth in the overall voting, while the Steelers had the leading vote getters among AFC teams at seven positions. In addition to Brown and Bell, inside linebacker Ryan Shazier, offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva, guard David DeCastro, center Maurkice Pouncey and special teams ace Tyler Matakevich led their respective positions. Patriots placekicker Stephen Gostkowski led all AFC kickers in voting.
The final Pro Bowl voting will be announced at 8 p.m. Tuesday, with the fan vote being added to that of the league's coaches and players.
THE KEY VARIABLE
Throughout the 2017 AFC Championship, color analyst Phil Simms mentioned that the Steelers' zone defense was getting picked apart by Brady. Trouble was, so was their man-to-man defense when the Steelers went to that.
While Pittsburgh did play zone defense just over 90 percent of the time in that game, they did so for a reason. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler knew his personnel would struggle in man defense against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
Butler has heard the criticism. He doesn't necessarily agree with it.
"They have their right to their opinion," Butler said. "We know who our guys are. We know what our guys do best. We know what our weaknesses are and so we’re trying to guard against the weaknesses and extenuate the strengths, as coaches. People say all they want to but unless they are here coaching and seeing these guys every day, they do not know what they are talking about. So, we’ll see what happens."
The Steelers worked hard to revamp their secondary in the offseason. They flirted with several free agent cornerbacks, eventually bringing in Coty Sensabaugh. Then, in the draft, they added Cameron Sutton in the third round and Brian Allen in the fifth. Two weeks before the regular season began, they immediately signed Joe Haden when he was released by Cleveland.
That led the way for Ross Cockrell, a starter at corner last season, to be shipped off to the Giants. And when Mike Hilton, signed to the practice squad last season after he was released by New England, beat out veteran William Gay for the slot corner job, the Steelers had two new starters in their secondary.
Haden has been out the past four games with a fractured fibula but could return for this game. His status will be a game-time decision.
If he's unable to play, Pittsburgh's secondary will include holdovers at safety, Sean Davis and Mike Mitchell, and Artie Burns at corner along with Sutton and Hilton.
After throwing for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the win at Heinz Field during the regular season, Brady had 384 yards and three scores in the AFC Championship.
The Steelers are intent on not allowing Brady to have the kind of success he did last season -- or has had in previous meetings -- and if that means playing more man-to-man defense, so be it. They feel they have that capability.
"I feel like we are in a better position to do so and we have practiced it more, globally speaking, over the course of a 12-month calendar," said Tomlin. "We will see what it looks like."
Pittsburgh did exactly that in 2011 when they beat the Patriots, 25-17, at Heinz Field, using corners Ike Taylor, Keenan Lewis and Gay in a lot of man coverage and using then-rookie Cortez Allen to match up on Brady's favorite target, Gronkowski.
Gronkowski, who is returning from a one-game suspension for an after-the-play hit two weeks ago in Buffalo, has 55 receptions for 849 yards and seven touchdowns.
With Shazier out, the Steelers lack one of the key pieces that has helped them be one of the best teams in the league against opposing tight ends, limiting them to 48 catches for 534 yards and two touchdowns.
The 6-1 Davis, a former college cornerback, will likely draw Gronkowski, who has 496 receiving yards and eight touchdown catches in five career games against the Steelers, in coverage.
"I think they do," said Davis, when I asked him if his college cornerback skills help him match up against a player such as the 6-7 Gronkowski. "He's a big guy. But I have the size to match up with him and the coverage ability to run with him."
Whether the rest of the secondary can keep up with the New England receivers remains to be seen. But pressure would help. The Steelers have 41 sacks this season. New England has allowed Brady to be sacked 29 times. Brady, who has thrown six interceptions this season compared to two all of last year, was sacked just 15 times in 2016.
"You have to have both," Butler said of the pass rush and coverage. "I think the coverage has to be good and the rush has to be good, so the combination of both. I’ve said that before. I think that’s exactly what it is. You have to have a good rush. You have to have good coverage and if you do then maybe you can make it hard on them and hopefully get a pick or two. Even though he hadn’t thrown very many."
THE MAIN MATCHUP
With one more reception, Brown will have five consecutive 100-catch seasons. No other receiver has ever done that. Not Jerry Rice. Not Randy Moss. Nobody.
So is Brown, who also leads the NFL with 1,509 receiving yards and is second with nine touchdown catches, a candidate for the league MVP award, something no wide receiver has ever won?
“Absolutely. He is a great player," said Belichick. "Give it to Bell, too. Give it to Roethlisberger, too, if you want to. They are all really good and excel at their position, excel every week. Even though everybody knows they are the best guys and they have to target those guys, they do it every week. When you get that kind of attention and continue to have the extraordinary production those three players have, you have to talk about them. It’s so unusual to have players of that caliber on the same team. They are all deserving of any recognition they get.”
Belichick has long been known as a defensive genius. And each week, he tries to take away the opponent's best offensive player.
The trouble with playing the Steelers, however, is that, as Belichick noted, it's not easy to identify exactly who that is.
Bell leads the NFL in rushing with 1,105 yards and also has 75 receptions, which ranks ninth in the NFL. Roethlisberger, meanwhile became the first player in NFL history to throw for more than 500 yards three times when he had 506 yards last week in the win over the Ravens.
Only Brady, with 3,865 yards, has thrown for more than the 3,744 Roethlisberger has posted this season.
So who will the Patriots try to take away from the Steelers in this game?
"They worry about the people that they think can beat them and that’s what it comes down to -- guys having to make plays," said Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley. "That’s just the way it is and the way it always has been."
So it will be on Martavis Bryant, JuJu Smith-Schuster -- if he plays -- Eli Rogers and tight end Jesse James to make plays beyond what the big three produce.
"They're all good. They all have good skill sets," said Belichick. "They all are productive. They have Rogers and Brown -- aren't the biggest guys, but they're productive. A lot of -- Bryant, Smith-Schuster, (Darrius) Heyward-Bey in the kicking game -- they're a very talented group. Tight ends - same thing, big receivers -- (Vance) McDonald, James. Bell is another big guy. So, they can do a lot of things. They can catch, they can break tackles, they're elusive, they can all go up and get the ball."
But Roethlisberger is the trigger man. And he's been the key to the Steelers' offense performing better than ever of late. Since throwing five interceptions in a loss to Jacksonville Oct. 8, Roethlisberger has thrown for 2,475 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. In the past four games -- when the Steelers have averaged 33 points per game -- he averaged a league-best 336.4 yards per game while tossing 12 touchdown passes.
The Patriots allow 271.2 yards passing per game, third most in the league, but have been surprisingly good in the red zone where they rank seventh overall, giving up 18 touchdowns in 38 trips by opponents inside their 20-yard line.
"If you just look at the stat sheet and yards given up, you’re going to think a bottom-of-the-league defense but that is not the case at all," said Haley. "Yards really do not mean anything. It’s how many points you score on offense and how many points you give up on defense and they’re a very stingy defense. They do not allow a lot of points scored. They’re under 20 points a game, so that will be the challenge for us. That was like last week. They were giving up 19-something points a game on a very good defense so we got another great challenge and we are going to have to be at our best."
THE QUOTES
"He's 6-7." -- safety Mike Mitchell, when asked what makes Gronkowski so difficult to defend.
"He’s been doing it for so long. He’s been in the league for 18 years. I’m only 22. That kind of tells you he’s seen everything. He’s seen all the coverages. He knows the ins and outs of the game. He’s been doing it at a high level for a long time. You’ve got to run with your antenna high and know what you’re doing on the field. Be ready for each and every scenario." -- rookie CB Cameron Sutton, on Brady
"We've been playing together a long time. I mean, he's a hell of a player. I've always loved his style. It's pretty unique – big guy that extends a lot of plays and tosses guys off and chucks the ball down the field. He's got great command and great leadership and hangs in there, he's tough, and [I] always really liked the way he plays. [He has] won two Super Bowls, so he does a great job, and he's been impressive to watch, too. So, it's been a lot of fun." -- Brady on Roethlisberger
THE TEN DATA POINTS
• Roethlisberger has thrown for 300 or more yards in six consecutive games against the Patriots.
• Gronkowski has 18 catches on 22 third-down targets this season.
• Chris Boswell is the first kicker since 1970 to kick a game-winning field goal in the final minute of three consecutive games. Boswell has a game-winner in the final minute in four of the past five games.
• Boswell needs three field goals to break Norm Johnson's team record of 34 field goals.
• Roethlisberger needs two completions to pass John Elway for seventh on the NFL's all-time list with 4,124.
• Brown needs 114 yards to reach 10,000 for his career. His 9,886 yards since joining the league in 2010 are more than 1,000 greater than any other player in that span.
• Bell needs 101 yards from scrimmage to pass John Stallworth for fifth place on the team's all-time yardage list with 8,835. He averages 128.9 yards per game from scrimmage in his career, the most of any active player in the NFL.
• The Steelers have outscored their opponents 96-45 in the fourth quarter of games this season and 103-65 in the second quarter. New England has been outscored, 82-64 in the fourth quarter but has outscored its opponents 149-78 in the second quarter.
• Belichick is 10-10 in his career in the regular season against the Steelers, including a 3-7 record as head coach of the Browns.
• The Patriots have just three players selected in the first round by them on their active roster, McCourty (2010), offensive tackle Nate Solder (2011) and defensive linemen Malcom Brown (2015). The Steelers have eight such players on their roster.
THE SNEAKY FANTASY PLAY
Rex Burkhead is a player with whom the Steelers are very familiar from his days with Cincinnati. Burkhead signed with the Patriots as a free agent in the offseason and has been coming on strong of late. Burkhead has scored five touchdowns -- four rushing and one receiving -- in the past three games. He's part of a three-headed rushing attack led by former Pitt star Dion Lewis, but keep an eye on Burkhead in this one. The Steelers' inside linebackers don't have a lot of speed without Shazier on the field. The Patriots' running backs could cause the Steelers fits.
THE MULTIMEDIA
Christopher Carter's Video Classroom:
Carter and me on Morning Java:
A Benstonium special:
Carter and me on our DK Sports Radio preview show:
THE STAFF PICKS
Our football coverage team offers predictions:
Dale Lolley: Brady doesn't look right to me. Maybe that's my imagination, but his stats the past few weeks would bear that out. He's thrown one touchdown and three interceptions in his past two games, both on the road. The Patriots also played Monday night in Miami, so the schedule makers really didn't do them any favors. In the past three seasons, teams playing a third consecutive road game are 13-23. In the past 10 years, they are 35-69. And that doesn't even take into account the short week for the Patriots. The Steelers are a battle-tested group. Yes, it hasn't always been pretty. But they have continued to win, posting an 11-2 record overall and a 7-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. The Patriots are 3-2 in such games. Finally, the Steelers are 6-1 against teams that entered the week with a winning record. The Patriots are 5-2 in such games. But two of those came against the Bills, a team Brady owns like Roethlisberger owns the Browns and Bengals. Steelers 26-24
Chris Carter: Roethlisberger is the key to winning this game, as he is going to need to continue his string of five consecutive games of throwing multiple touchdown passes to get the Steelers going. Fortunately, he faces a Patriots defense that just got picked apart by Jay Cutler and has the best assortment of weapons on offense that the Patriots will face this season. While the Patriots' offense is always the troublemaker for the Steelers, I doubt they can keep up with the Steelers offense if Roethlisberger is reading them and Bell is having a solid day. The Patriots' defense has been proclaimed by many to have been fixed, but the Steelers will find a way to change that narrative. Steelers 38-27
Matt Sunday: I have no idea what's going to happen in this game. The Steelers have looked like a Super Bowl team at times, and others I don't know how they clinched the North ahead of 'Patriots week.' Based on what the Dolphins did to this team, though, I'd feel pretty good about the fantasy playoffs if I had Le'Veon Bell on my team (I don't). Even with what Bell and Antonio Brown have done the past few weeks, I don't think the team can stop the combined run/pass effort out of the backfield and cover Rob Gronkowski without Ryan Shazier. They'll have to pick one of the two evils, and that leaves a lot of room for the Patriots to succeed. Good game, close, but Patriots will make it look worse late. Patriots, 37-27
Dejan Kovacevic: Ha! Analysis? Really? I'll have you know that my great-grandfather often speaks of a time when Brady beat the Steelers with his right arm -- no, both arms! -- tied behind his back! He also tells the tale of Belichick being so brilliant he once napped through a game -- no, he was actually bound, blindfolded and had his mouth stuffed with stale McDonald's fries in a locked trunk! -- and he still outmaneuvered our guy! ... Yeah, no thanks. I'll be hiding under my blanket. Let me know how it goes. Patriots, 150-0