DENVER -- Had anyone asked two years ago on this date if the Penguins could win the Stanley Cup, the answer would be a definite no.
On Dec. 19, 2015, they were 15-14-3 and Mike Sullivan had just taken over the coaching reins from Mike Johnston days earlier. Sullivan lost his first four games, but that season turned out pretty well, right?
If anyone asked this time last year if the Penguins would repeat as champions, the answer still would have been no. Though they sat at 21-7-5 on Dec. 19, 2016, history dictated they couldn’t win again. Remember, no team had successfully defended the Cup in 19 years and not in the salary cap era. Guess what? That turned out pretty well, too.
So if anyone asked today if the Penguins will win the Cup a third straight year, it would be the same no. And after Monday night’s dismal 4-2 loss to the Avalanche, their fifth loss in seven games, they're a precarious 17-15-3.
How will this season end?
It’s hard to see the them becoming the first team since the dynastic Islanders of the early-‘80s to win three in a row, but that’s not to say they can’t for all the seasons and reasons above.
This is a flawed team — all teams are, to varying degrees — but everyone saw that coming in July when Chris Kunitz, Nick Bonino, Trevor Daley, Ron Hainsey and Matt Cullen left via free agency. In hindsight they were bigger losses than originally thought. None of the aforementioned qualifies as a star, but they were valuable contributors who fit the system like pieces to a puzzle.
That has been the beauty of the Penguins these last two years: The sum has been greater than the parts and, oh, the 'parts' include Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin — the best, and one of the very best players of this generation — and stars in Phil Kessel and Kris Letang.
But as much as they are defined by those stars, no one is sipping out of either of those Cups without their young supporting cast -- players like Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary and Bryan Rust. Each of the three stepped into a top-heavy lineup and complemented the rest with their speed, offensive skill sets and 200-foot games.
Tuesday’s acquisitions of Jamie Oleksiak from Dallas and Michael Leighton from Arizona certainly address some issues, but a big, physical defenseman and organizational goaltending depth isn’t the elephant in the room. If there will be a serious run at a third straight Cup, an infusion of speed and energy — like Rust, Sheary and Guentzel provided in ’16 and in ’17 — is going to be required.
Looking at the the past few weeks, their biggest problem is that they look tired and could use some fresh legs. There is no amount of rest the Penguins are going to receive between now and mid-April that’s going to change that. Oleksiak could foreseeably replace Ian Cole, but Oleksiak’s not a burner either.
What to do?
In a best-case scenario, Rust, Sheary and Guentzel take the next step in their development and take ownership as the faces of the future. But that trio, like the Penguins as a whole, haven’t exceeded expectations. Rust scored 15 goals in just 57 games last year but is on pace for just nine this year over the course of a full season. Sheary averaged 0.86 points per game with 23 goals in 61 games a year ago. This year he has nine goals, but just one in his last 15. After last spring’s magical run, when he scored 13 goals in 25 playoff games to earn legit Conn Smythe mention, Guentzel has 12 goals this season, but none in his past eight.
Clearly, Jim Rutherford wanted to grab his team’s attention and he did that in word last week and, on Tuesday, in action, with a pair of minor trades. I’d suspect he isn’t done dealing just yet.
But there was never going to be a major shakeup, at least no trades that would involve Crosby, Malkin, Kessel or Letang, all of whom have no-movement clauses. Up against the salary cap (just under $900,000, according to CapFriendly.com), there is only so much Rutherford can do.
But there are some smaller moves that can be made internally.
Dominik Simon, who has looked very impressive on both ends of the ice in his recent callup, should at least begin looking for an apartment in Pittsburgh.
Daniel Sprong, who is still plugging away in Wilkes-Barre where he has 15 goals in 25 games, is due for a second look at the NHL, particularly if Patric Hornqvist is out for any length of time. It can’t hurt a team that is 14th in goals scored and 23rd in goal differential (minus-11) to have a pure scorer like Sprong.
Forget about not being fair. It’s simply not possible for Crosby, Malkin and Kessel to carry the group every night. The stars need the supporting cast to step up and, just like in recent years, for a few minor-league callups to make an impact in Pittsburgh.
Would any of this guarantee the Penguins win a third straight Cup? Not at all. If we’ve learned anything over the past two years, these things are almost impossible to predict.