When faced with questions from frustrated fans at PiratesFest earlier this month, Neal Huntington remained non-committal on the Pirates' plans this offseason. That message didn't change during the Winter Meetings, either, with Huntington saying the club could either retool or contend.
But they could be close to making a decision that would alter the course of the franchise for 2018 and beyond, as they remain in trade discussions with the Yankees about Gerrit Cole, with Jeff Passan, the lead baseball writer at Yahoo! Sports, saying the club was "motivated" to trade the ace of their rotation.
That, of course, would trigger a significant rebuild, but is it the answer to what ails the franchise?
The Pirates would not trade Cole to free up payroll in the interim. In fact, the 27-year-old is under club control for two more seasons and is projected to make $7.5 million through arbitration in 2018 — a bargain for an average starting pitcher. He’ll likely make around $10 million in 2019 before becoming a free agent.
But the club is unlikely to sign Cole, the first overall pick in 2013, to a long-term extension. His agent, Scott Boras, prefers to have his clients test the free-agent market. The top two free-agent starting pitchers on the market this offseason — Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish — are seeking long-term contracts for around $200 million.
Sure, performance and health will determine Cole's price in 2019, but the Pirates are still unlikely to pay whatever the cost may be. They could choose to wait until the trade deadline to make a move. After all, Cole's value would still be significantly high and the current core of players could be strong enough to compete in 2018.
But there is the risk of Cole either getting hurt or struggling in 2018, so shopping him now is a move to try to maximize his value.
The Athletics traded Sonny Gray, a 28-year-old starter under contract through 2019, to the Yankees last July for three prospects.
The Pirates are likely seeking a similar return, although the Yankees reportedly won't include infielder Gleyber Torres or outfielder Estevan Floriel — their two top prospects. Outfielder Clint Frazier, pitcher Chance Adams and third baseman Miguel Andujar are possibilities.
It's not surprising that the Pirates are listening to trade offers for Cole. Neal Huntington told reporters at the Winter Meetings he'd be willing to trade any starting pitcher if it made the club better. But how could trading Cole now, rather than holding onto him to compete in 2018, possibly make the club better?
There's no question that if Cole goes, McCutchen and Josh Harrison would soon follow.
Barring a free-agent signing or trade, the rotation would likely look like this:
• Ivan Nova
• Jameson Taillon
• Chad Kuhl
• Trevor Williams
• Steven Brault
La Prensa, a newspaper based in Mexico City, reported earlier this month that the Pirates are the favorite to sign Jaime Garcia, a left-handed starting pitcher, but Garcia is projected to receive a two-year, $18 million contract this offseason.
They'd likely prefer young, internal options if Cole is traded.
Brault, a 25-year-old left-hander who was the club's minor league pitcher of the year in 2017, will likely start the season in the bullpen if Cole remains on the roster. If Cole is gone, Brault would likely be ahead of Tyler Glasnow if the Pirates choose to fill the rotation vacancy internally.
In addition to having an unproven No. 5, the rotation would also lack a frontline starter.
Nova, under contract through 2019 at $9.167 million per year, has spent only one full season in a Major League rotation. He had 52 strikeouts to just three walks in his 11 starts with the Pirates in 2016.
After re-signing with the Pirates last December, Nova had a 2.83 ERA through his first 13 starts in 2017 and was named National League Pitcher for the Month for April. His ERA inflated to 4.25 by the middle of September
Although he made a career-high 31 starts, Nova’s home run-to-fly ball ratio was 15.8 percent, which was the 10th worst among Major League starting pitchers with at least 150 innings. Lefties slashed .309/.342/.516 against him with 16 home runs, and his 4.41 ERA was slightly better than the league average.
Huntington could be banking on Taillon, who missed six weeks in 2017 because of testicular cancer, to emerge as an ace. After all, Taillon was drafted second overall in 2010 and has shown signs of filling that role.
In his first full season in the majors, Taillon finished with a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 25 starts. He averaged 3.1 walks per nine innings, yet he did a better job of generating soft contact from opposing hitters.
There are also a number of promising young pitchers in the organization, including Mitch Kellar, who was ranked the Pirates' No. 1 prospect by Baseball America, Nick Kingham, Luis Escobar, Taylor Hearn and Shane Baz.
During the same question-and-answer session at PiratesFest, Huntington spoke of the front office having a goal to do whatever it takes to be a playoff contender every season, and yes, he's willing to "retool" the roster to accomplish that goal.
He mentioned the club trading Mark Melancon for Hearn and Felipe Rivero as an example of the type of trade the Pirates would try to execute if they chose to trade a significant piece of the current core.
At the time of the trade, Rivero was still viewed as a prospect with untapped potential, but projected as a Major League closer and is under control through 2022.
Sure, he blossomed into one of the top closers in Major League Baseball, but trading for prospects is far from foolproof.
It can be difficult to project Major League performance based on minor league numbers — Glasnow is an example of that — and even young players can quickly become expensive. Rivero is projected to make $3.1 million through arbitration in 2018 and will become increasingly expensive.
The window to compete for the playoffs closes quicker for small market clubs like the Pirates. Their inactivity in free agency suggests change is on the horizon, and it won't be revealed until after they decide whether to trade or retain Cole.