With spring training less than six weeks away, the Pirates' offseason inactivity will soon end, and it appears they're inching closer to a rebuild.
Multiple reports surfaced Thursday that the club is in talks with the Mets and Giants about Andrew McCutchen. The rumors came two weeks after Jeff Passan, lead baseball writer at Yahoo!, reported a Gerrit Cole trade to the Yankees was inevitable. They also are shopping Josh Harrison, their lone All-Star from this past season.
Trading any or all of the three would trigger a significant rebuild — or "retooling," to quote Neal Huntington — but what sort of prospects would the Pirates target to position themselves to compete again in 2019 and beyond?
Naturally, the organization's needs could change based on which player is traded, particularly in regard to Harrison. Trading the 30-year-old would likely force Clint Hurdle to utilize Adam Frazier as the starting second baseman, creating a need for either a fourth outfielder or another utility infielder.
Either of those positions could be filled internally or with cheap free-agent options, but the Pirates could seek young, controllable, major-league ready talent.
However, trading McCutchen and/or Cole does not change the strengths and weaknesses of the farm system. Although there seemed to be little chance the Pirates would re-sign McCutchen beyond 2018, they are quite thin on outfielders throughout the organization, focusing recent drafts on pitching and middle infielders.
They were likely betting on Austin Meadows, who is still ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Pirates' top prospect, to be ready for the major leagues at some point in 2017. But injury and underperformance have stalled his development the past 18 months.
The left-handed hitter was limited to 72 games at Triple-A in 2017 because of hamstring and oblique injuries, and he batted .250/.311/.359 with four home runs and 36 RBI. He'll likely begin the season back in Indianapolis, and he'll have much to prove to earn his first call to Pittsburgh.
Beyond Meadows, there isn't much high-end outfield talent. Jordan Luplow, 24, batted .205 in 24 major league games for the Pirates after he was recalled in July, despite having appeared in only 44 games for Triple-A Indianapolis.
A third-round pick in 2014, Luplow, who is the organization's No 20-ranked prospect, would benefit from more time at Triple-A, but could be thrust into a major league role out of need if Harrison or McCutchen are traded.
If Luplow is in Pittsburgh, the Triple-A starting outfield would likely be Meadows, Jordan Cunningham, a minor-league free agent, and Christopher Bostick, a converted second baseman.
Outside of Meadows and Luplow, there are only two other outfielders among the Pirates' top-20 prospects: Calvin Mitchell and Conner Uselton, both of whom were drafted in 2017. Mitchell batted .245 in 43 games in the Gulf Coast League, but Uselton's season ended after two games because of a hamstring injury.
So, it's not much of a surprise the Pirates covet outfielders for any trade involving their current core. They have reportedly expressed interest in Yankees outfielders Clint Frazier and Estevan Florial, and have been linked to Giants prospects Heliot Ramos and Chris Shaw, a first baseman/outfielder.
Although the Yankees reportedly won't include Florial in a trade for Cole, Frazier, a former top prospect, is thought to be available because of New York's acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. He'd offer the Pirates a high-upside outfielder capable of playing left field, allowing Starling Marte to slide over to center if McCutchen is traded.
The Pirates reportedly have asked for Gleyber Torres, the Yankees' top prospect, in a trade for Cole, but the 21-year-old shortstop is not available. But infield is an area of strength for Huntington.
Among the Pirates' top-20 prospects:
• Kevin Newman, shortstop (.267/.311/.363 in 122 games between Double-A, Triple-A)
• Kevin Kramer, second baseman (.297/.380/.500 in 53 games at Double-A)
• Cole Tucker, shortstop (.275/.358/.408 with 47 stolen bases in 110 games between High-A, Double-A)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes, third baseman (.278/.345/.363 in 108 games with High-A Bradenton)
• Oneil Cruz, third baseman (Acquired from Dodgers for Tony Watson, batted .237 in first year of full-season ball)
Newman, a first-round pick in 2015, is likely to replace Jordy Mercer, who is a free agent next winter, as the Pirates' starting shortstop. He'll start the season at Triple-A with Tucker, ranked as the organization's No. 5 prospect by MLB Pipeline, to return to Altoona.
Hayes, the Pirates' No. 4 prospect, could join him with the defending Eastern League champions, and Cruz, who can also play shortstop, is still a ways away. This group is unlikely to help the club in 2018, but it is very much on Huntington's mind this offseason.
Harrison, who is set to make $10.25 million this season, could be viewed as expendable with Frazier having one full major league season of experience, as well as Newman, Tucker and Kramer in the wings.
Trading Harrison, who has been linked to the Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays, could bolster outfield depth or possibly bring bullpen help, where the Pirates are quite thin. The Mets have outfielders Desmond Lindsay and Wuilmer Becerra to offer, while the Blue Jays' system is much stronger, featuring outfielder Anthony Alford and former Pitt pitcher T.J. Zeuch, a first-round pick in 2016.
If the season started tomorrow, Hurdle would likely have Felipe Rivero, George Kontos, Daniel Hudson, Edgar Santana, Dovydas Neverauskas, A.J. Schugel and Steven Brault in the bullpen.
Rivero is one of the top closers in Major League Baseball, but as a whole, the group leaves much to be desired. The Pirates traded for Nick Burdi, a hard-throwing right-hander projected as a future closer, at the Rule 5 Draft last month, but the 24-year-old is expected to miss most of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
More prospects in the pipeline would be welcome, although one or more of their many starting pitchers could move to the bullpen. After all, Huntington told reporters at the Winter Meetings that starting pitching is a position of strength, which is why he expressed a willingness to trade one.
Outside of the major league rotation — which features young, controllable starters Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams — the Pirates also have:
• Mitch Keller
• Shane Baz
• Nick Kingham
• Steven Jennings
• Taylor Hearn
• Gage Hinsz
• Luis Escobar
• Travis MacGregor
• Clay Holmes
Keller, who split last season between Bradenton and Altoona despite suffering a minor back injury, is ranked by Baseball America as the Pirates' top prospect while MLB Pipeline has him behind Meadows.
The 21-year-old was outstanding in the Eastern League playoffs for the Curve, and followed that up with an eye-opening run in the Arizona Fall League. He'll likely start the season in Altoona, but he's viewed as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter.
Baz, a first-round pick out of high school last June, started 10 games in the Gulf Coast League and is still years away from the major leagues. Kingham, though, could factor into the major league rotation in 2018 after he posted a 1.30 WHIP in 19 starts for Indianapolis this season — his first full season since Tommy John surgery.
Hearn, 23, is viewed as a potential breakout candidate in 2018 after he struck out 108 in 87 1/3 innings with Bradenton this past season. The left-hander was the second piece in the trade that landed Rivero from the Nationals, and his fastball is consistently at 98 mph.
The Pirates also have Brault and Tyler Glasnow, so there are options if Cole is dealt.
Naturally, they're still very much interested in other young starters in trade talks, most notably the Yankees' Chance Adams, but pitching remains this organization's strength. Catcher is also a position of need since it's viewed as the most difficult position to both draft and develop.
The priority in any trade seems to be offense. The Pirates will need more of that in 2018 and beyond, especially with the uneven play of Gregory Polanco and Jung Ho Kang's uncertain status.
The return will vary based on who is traded and where they land, but it appears any move by Huntington will be done with an eye towards the future.