After covering how the Patriots' secondary will provide an interesting challenge for the Eagles' quarterback, Nick Foles, we now turn our attention to the other side of the ball, where Tom Brady faces off against a defense whose calling card is physicality and flying to the ball.
The Eagles ranked fourth in points allowed (18.4 per game) this season, but were the best defense against the run, allowing 79.2 rushing yards per game. They're led by defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and boast several young talents making their names known in the NFL.
But no name gets more recognition than Brady, which is why we have made this our key focus for Carter's Classroom going into Super Bowl weekend.
Brady and the Patriots are coming off an exciting comeback win against a Jaguars' defense arguably considered the best in the NFL. Their four man defensive front of Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson, Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler accounted for 43 of the team's 55 sacks and was poised to get after Brady.
It worked early as the Jaguars built a 14-3 lead in the first half, but eventually the Patriots negated the Jaguars' rush with Brady's uncanny ability to process defensive schemes and turn those into quick passes.
Here's an example when Brady deciphered the Jaguars' Cover 1 defense and knew he had soft, isolated man coverage on Brandin Cooks outside the numbers. Cooks runs a deep in route and gets the Patriots down to the 1:
This is what has made Brady so efficient for so long. He and the Patriots find ways to negate whatever pass rush a team brings by a simple three-step drop and throw into the soft spot of a defense. And eventually that gets those defensive fronts tired and allows for him to make the reads that generally take longer to process.
Take Danny Amendola's first touchdown as an example. Amendola runs a shallow cross underneath Dwayne Allen's deeper crossing pattern to force the two Jaguars linebackers, Myles Jack (No. 44) and Telvin Smith (50), to make a decision who to cover. Smith drops back to take away the more direct scoring option of Allen and leaves Jack to trail Amendola over the middle.
Brady can sit comfortably in the pocket and wait to see the exact look he wants because the Jaguars' defensive line is not collapsing the pocket at this point:
Where Brady has made his calling card over the years is how he doesn't care which players he targets more often than not. His decisions are more predicated on mismatches and weak spots in defenses. The Vikings' lone touchdown in the NFC Championship came from Case Keenum recognizing when he had Kyle Rudolph against Najee Goode and threw to the open man:
While the Eagles most likely will concentrate on trying to cover Rob Gronkowski, they will have to be aware of James White, Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett, as well.
The best way to rattle Brady and prevent him from getting into a zone is by collapsing the pocket and forcing his hand. The Eagles have one of the best players to do that in Cox, whose 5.5 sacks during the regular season were not enough of an indicator on how he impacts the majority of plays while on the field.
Take his sack of Matt Ryan in the divisional round of the playoffs as an example of what he can do. Cox often drives guards and centers backwards, whether he's playing the run or the pass, but here he drives his man back into Ryan, then easily disengages to sack Ryan and wipe out the play for the Falcons:
That kind of drive is what the Jaguars were missing late in the AFC Championship as the Patriots found their rhythm on offense, thanks to Brady having the time to process the defense. The Jaguars often stay committed to the idea of rushing with the same four players consistently throughout a game, but it cost them when the Patriots' offensive line started to get its second wind.
Take Brady's key conversion of 3rd-and-18 to Amendola as a perfect example. Watch how the same front four that terrorized teams all season couldn't even get close to Brady, allowing him to pick apart the zone defense behind them:
When the defense rushes the same four players over and over, the offensive line becomes comfortable with who to expect and the various ways those same four players can create pressure. That doesn't mean they can automatically stop all those players, but it does mean they can choose who to double-team and get the matchups they want with which rushers are met with a lone offensive lineman.
Certainly they will have a plan to double Cox, as the Vikings did in the NFC Championship, but the Eagles are not a front that relies solely on Cox to get pressure. Beau Allen, Tim Jernigan, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Chris Long and even rookie Derek Barnett get into the act.
Here's an example of when Cox was double-teamed by the Vikings but Allen drove his man backwards and chased Keenum out of the pocket to force a throwaway:
But just having more than one dangerous player on their defensive front isn't enough to cause consistent disruption against Brady. He and his offensive line will communicate and find ways to negate the same pass rush looks over the course of the game. This was where the Jaguars began to falter late, as they stuck to their guns with the four-man rush too often.
On the rare occasions they did blitz, they did find success confusing the Patriots. Take this rush by Jack, highlighted in red, as an example. The Jaguars rush five and have Fowler drop into coverage. This throws off the communication of the Patriots' line and allows Jack to run through the A-gap and force an early throw by Brady that winds up incomplete:
The Eagles made their living this season by not rushing the same four men time after time. Their use of disguised blitzes, combined with their speed and physicality on defense, present a unique challenge that differs from the Jaguars.
Take this play where Barnett strips Keenum late against the Vikings and how they're aligned. The Eagles have four down linemen and hover two more players around the line of scrimmage to present multiple pass-rush threats for the Vikings to calculate.
Notice how Barnett, highlighted in yellow, comes free and only has a tight end coming across the formation to beat. That's a result of the Vikings trying to double-team Cox, who lines up next to Barnett, while still accounting for all the different rushers the Eagles might bring. You can see Riley Reiff (71) and Mike Remmers (74) both take on Cox at the start of the play and leave Barnett, an obvious rush threat, to charge Keenum:
It's also important to note how behind Barnett lurks Malcolm Jenkins, the Eagles' star safety, who can turn from an excellent cover man to a quick pass rusher instantly. The Eagles use him to float around the box, which will force the Patriots to communicate where they expect him to attack. This can present more mental challenges that can throw off their game.
While Jenkins didn't rush in the play above, here's an example of when he lined up behind Curry and rushed the edge to get a free look at Keenum and force a throwaway:
Plays like that won't register on a stat sheet, but they count as wasted downs and are just as important to getting off the field in key situations as a swatted pass. The Eagles faced a quarterback who had remained poised under pressure for most of the year in Keenum when they decimated the Vikings 38-7, but no quarterback has ice in his veins like Brady.
If the Eagles are to have a chance, they will need to throw everything they have at Brady and force his offensive line to be great and recognize several blitz factors on every play. The Eagles boast the NFL's best defense against the run and could end up relying on that to keep the Patriots from getting into third-and-short situations which present more run-pass options for Brady.
Getting the Patriots into predictable passing situations on third downs is the first step, but having the Eagles' organized chaos generate a pass rush will be their key to victory. That being said, Brady has faced many defenses that boast various blitz looks in his 18 years in the NFL, so it still would take a more-than-exceptional effort on Philadelphia's part to rattle him.
I predicted the Patriots to win this in a close 20-17 battle on our Steelers Show because Brady and the Patriots have been a team that has found so many different ways to win this season and they face a backup quarterback that is now on the biggest stage that he might ever see in his career.
But plenty of Brady's success has come in the last two minutes of both the first and second halves of a game, not just this season, but in his long career. That poses an interesting matchup with the Eagles, who have not allowed a single point all season in the final two minutes of either half.
If it comes down to the final drive of this Super Bowl, we might see an unstoppable force meet an immovable object.