STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- Saquon Barkley will likely be off the board within the first five picks, which has him poised to be among some of the NFL's elite young running backs.
"I talk about the last three or four running backs who went in the top-10: (Leonard) Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott went at No. 4, (Todd) Gurley went at No. 10, Christian McCaffrey went at No. 8, so they're the last four top-10 backs," NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said Monday on his annual pre-combine teleconference. "They've all helped their teams become better and I could make the case that this kid Barkley is the best of all of those guys. He's clean off the field and he'll be great in your locker room. I would be absolutely stunned if this kid doesn't go in the top 5."
While there are two months to wait until Barkley will be ready to buy his mom that house he promised, his path to the draft heats up this week in Indianapolis at the NFL Scouting Combine. Penn State will have eight players in attendance, the program's largest contingent since 2009. While Barkley is the headliner, the combine doesn't hold as much value for him as it does for his seven former teammates. Yes, it's still extremely important as he'll go through medical examinations, interviews and workouts, but there are fewer unknowns with someone as proven as Barkley.
As Mayock put it, the combine should be a celebration for player who he called a "transformational back."
"Really all it is is confirmation of his physical gifts," Mayock said. "For a guy like Barkley who has worked so hard to develop his gift, for him it ought to be a victory celebration. It really should. He ought to come in and just knock it down one drill after the other and he's going to walk out of there four days later and everyone is going to go, 'Wow. He's just as good or better than we thought he was.' When he goes into the meetings at night he's going to blow people away."
The stakes are much higher for players who could be on the verge of going undrafted like linebacker Jason Cabinda and safety Troy Apke. Special teams could be one way Apke could give himself some time to hang on with a team, showcase his speed and coverage skills while getting comfortable at safety. Mayock said he expects Apke, a former Mt. Lebanon track & field standout, to run well but ultimately he'll need to show versatility -- which could even include some work as a dime linebacker -- to try and stick with a team.
As for Cabinda, who Mayock dubbed a "true pro" after watching Cabinda huddle with the defensive coordinator after every rep at the East-West Shrine Game, he'll have to overcome questions at the combine about his athleticism.
"He's not as naturally gifted as some of those linebackers who will run in the 4.5s at the combine," Mayock said of the middle linebacker. "He comes prepared to play. I think he's a two-down player with some physical limitations who can make a living on special teams."
As for safety Marcus Allen, whose draft grades have been all over the map, he will need to maximize his time in Indianapolis as well. He's not shy on delivering big hits and could have some upside because of his size and willingness to play down in the box, but Mayock wants to know more about his work in the pass game.
Allen, whose blocked field goal against Ohio State helped turnaround Penn State's program two seasons ago, recorded just one interception in college despite being a four-year starter. While picks are not always indicative of how someone back there plays, Mayock said that Allen could land somewhere where he could make an immediate impact.
"(He) will strike you, will get after people in the run game," Mayock said. "I think he can cover running backs and tight ends, but the more athletic the game gets the more I think he's going to struggle. But, I think he's a starting safety in the NFL."
When it comes to the other draft-eligible members of Penn State's secondary, count Mayock among those who is impressed with cornerback Grant Haley.
Haley quietly had a steady collegiate career, one where he never redshirted and also gave the team versatility and help on special teams. While it's been the larger Christian Campbell, at 6-1, 194, who is projected to go ahead of Haley, those rankings have so far likely been because of Campbell's more NFL-ready size. That will likely be met by questions about Campbell's speed, which will be put to the test this week and within the next couple months.
"I like Haley," Mayock said of the 5-9, 185-pound corner. "He may be even better (than Campbell) because he can play nickel and even if he won't test well I like Haley a lot. I think he's going to come in and compete, play nickel and be a better football player than people think. I think Campbell is a long, press corner, not as good off the ball. ... He's got to run well. That's kind of the question on him. He needs to run well and I'd love to see Haley sneak in a good time as well because he's a good football player."
The one player who won't be sneaking up on teams, at least not after his performance at the East-West Shrine Game practices -- which landed him a spot in the Senior Bowl -- is receiver DaeSean Hamilton. An up and down collegiate career was capped with a strong senior season where Hamilton put up numbers that rivaled those of former Nittany Lion Chris Godwin. While Godwin was selected in the third round (84th overall) by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, Hamilton might've done enough since the season ended to get himself into the third-round conversations, too.
"In a 14 day period with the East-West Game and the Senior Bowl he helped himself as much as anybody in the country," he said. "I thought he got better everyday, which says a lot. Coaches love that. (They love) the ability to process information and then execute it on the field the next day. The East-West Game helped him and then he came out at the Senior Bowl and so he went from kind of a third-day afterthought to someone who now is potentially a third-round pick."
There's the possibility now that Hamilton and tight end/his best friend Mike Gesicki could be vying for the spot of second former Nittany Lion off the board behind Barkley. Mayock compared Gesicki and many of the tight ends in this draft class to that of Philadelphia's Zach Ertz. They're over sized wide receivers who are matchup problems, but the trade off of course comes with the blocking, or lack thereof.
Mayock estimated that 90 percent of the tight ends in this class are "pass only wide receivers." This however isn't new, but rather is just how the league has evolved. It's also not new when it comes to Gesicki, whose blocking at Penn State was a work in progress.
Prior to college he had never played a down with his hand in the dirt and while his struggles in the run game could scare some teams off, there's also a lot of benefit to having someone who can elevate like he does and who can be that big red-zone threat. All it takes is one team to buy into that tradeoff and with Gesicki projected to go either in the second or third round it's safe to say he will likely only help himself after one of the team's top weight-room performers goes through the paces at the combine.
"Every year we have the same conversation about college tight ends," Mayock said. "There are only a few that will block and then a bunch of receivers, then who fits what scheme the best."
WORTH NOTING
• If the Browns select a quarterback at No. 1 then maybe they take Barkley at No. 4, should he still be there of course. But, Mayock also mentioned Indianapolis as a potential Barkley landing spot, but he also cautioned that the Colts could be in the market to try and deal that pick to try and move back, collect more picks and therefore fill more needs.
It's about balancing the risk associated with taking one player who could be an All Pro, or selecting a few who could help fill holes at multiple spots. Even so, if the Browns pass on Barkley at No. 1 there's no telling the Giants would do the same at No. 2. Barkley, in a Q&A with the New York Post, outlined what it would be like for a lifelong New York Jets fans to suit up for the Giants.
•Beyond Mayock's two top receivers -- Alabama's Calvin Ridley and Texas A&M's Christian Kirk -- the rest are jumbled up mostly between the second and fourth round. He expects teams likely being all over the map on who is best after Ridley and Kirk, mainly because they're all looking for specific fits.
Finding a wide receiver in this class will be a challenge and taking one in the first round suggests history -- at least from the past three draft classes -- won't be on their side. Of the 13 receivers drafted in the first round since 2015 just one -- Amari Cooper -- has been a difference maker.
It's a rough list: Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller IV, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross. This trend suggests that perhaps taking a wide receiver in the first round versus the ones available in the second through fourth rounds might yield a better result -- or at least a better draft class.
Going with bigger receivers later on, those like JuJu Smith-Schuster (62nd overall) and Devin Funchess (41st overall in 2015) helped solidify Mayock's notion that receivers beyond the first round can certainly out perform their first-round counterparts.
• Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett found success as a college quarterback, but what does one make of him in the NFL?
"J.T. Barrett is a hard one for me because I love the kid and I got to meet him a little bit at the East-West Game," Mayock said. "You can see all the leadership attributes. Everything you want in your quarterback he has, except for the high-level talent. From my perspective he’s probably going to be a later third-day guy. … He’s an ideal backup or a third quarterback and I think he’ll play in the league for a lot of years."