Could it be deja vu all over again for the Steelers and Le'Veon Bell?
With the deadline for teams to use the franchise tag looming at 4 p.m. Tuesday, time is running out for the Steelers to come to terms on a long-term agreement with their two-time All-Pro running back. That makes it more likely the Steelers will use the franchise tag on Bell, guaranteeing him $14.5 million in salary in 2018.
It also might mean Bell is unlikely to accept a long-term deal worth considerably less than the salary he is set to make in 2018. The Steelers offered Bell a deal worth $60 million over five seasons last year that he eventually declined.
That contract would have reportedly paid Bell $30 million over the first two seasons and $42 million over the first three seasons. But that also means he would have gotten just $9 million per season over the final two years and Bell has made it known the sticking point was the guaranteed money involved.
The guaranteed money involved with the franchise tag is part of the problem. With Bell guaranteed $26.1 million in 2017 and 2018 -- the tag paid him $12.1 million last season -- as part of the franchise tag, he was unlikely to take a deal that included less up-front money than that in any contract the Steelers offered.
"I can't fault his strategy because it's almost like Kirk Cousins," said long-time ESPN NFL analyst and salary cap expert John Clayton. "Kirk Cousins was making $19.9 (million) when they were offering $16 (million). So he's like, 'How about if I just take the $19.9?' Then, when he's making $23.3, they're like, 'How about we offer you $21?' Now, he'll be a complete free agent and he'll make $28 to $30 million per year.
"It's going to be interesting to see if Le'Veon takes that second franchise tag and signs it because you know there's not going to be a third. Because of that, it's not a bad deal to be franchised. That's why there's only going to be five or six franchise tags this year."
As of Monday morning, just two players had been offered franchise tags in the NFL. Bell is expected to make that three Tuesday if a long-term deal cannot be reached and there could be a couple of others.
Kevin Colbert remained optimistic last week that a deal could be completed with Bell.
"Typically, if two sides want to get something done, something will get done," Colbert said.
Bell, now 26, has seemed to be much more amenable to making sure that happens. He's one year older and because the position he plays is one at which players don't often continue to be effective into their 30s, he has lost a little bit of his negotiating leverage.
Unlike Cousins, his former college teammate at Michigan State who will become an unrestricted free agent at 29, considered a prime age for quarterbacks, the clock is ticking for Bell.
Bell has rushed for 5,336 yards in his first five seasons in just 62 games. He also has 2,660 receiving yards and his 128.9 yards from scrimmage per game average is among the best in NFL history. But he also has missed 16 games to injury or suspension in his career.
He avoided signing the franchise tag last season, waiting to report to the Steelers until the week before their regular season opener. The Steelers would like to avoid a similar occurrence this year. They would have until July 16 to get a long-term deal worked out.
"What he's worth is about $12-and-a-half million at most," Clayton said. "What he'll do is eventually sign the franchise tag at over $14 (million). You've got to remember, he was saying last year, he should be paid like a wide receiver at $16 (million). But he's at a position now where if he got $16 (million), he would more than double the position at running back. Devonta Freeman got a little over $8 (million) and then you have (LeSean) McCoy at $8 million. They're the highest-paid running backs who aren't Le'Veon Bell. He'll take the franchise tag."