This season the Penguins swept the season series from the Flyers for just the second time in the franchise's 51-year history. Not only that, they scored five goals per game in each of their four wins, outscoring their cross-state rivals by a healthy 20-11 margin.
Should the Penguins expect the same results when they meet the Flyers in their first-round playoff series beginning Wednesday night at PPG Paints Arena?
Realistically, probably not.
Sometimes, but not always, dominant regular-season performances against a particular opponent translate in the postseason. It didn't in 2012-13. The Penguins were 3-0 against the Bruins in the regular season, outscoring them 8-5. But when they met in the Eastern Conference Final, Boston swept the series, limiting the Penguins to just two goals.
That said, there's no reason why the Penguins shouldn't win this first-round series fairly convincingly against the Flyers.
When you break down the teams position by position, the Penguins check off nearly all the boxes. Take a look for yourself:
OFFENSE
The expected return of Derick Brassard from a groin injury that sidelined him for the final five games of the regular season gives the Penguins more center depth than any team in the league. When you can add a proven playoff performer such as Brassard — 55 points in 78 career postseason games — to a lineup that already includes one of the best 1-2 punches in league history with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, it's a nightmare matchup for any team, particularly Philadelphia.
Taking a page out of Mike Sullivan's playbook, Dave Hakstol has also tried to spread out the Flyers' offense, placing Claude Giroux, Jakub Voraceck and Wayne Simmonds on separate lines. Moved to the left wing this season, Giroux enjoyed a Hart Trophy-worthy season, finishing second in the scoring race with 102 points. Sean Couturier, who centered Giroux, had a career year, scoring 31 goals (but just two over the final 23 games).
But other than those four — and possibly youngsters Travis Konecny, 20, and Nolan Patrick, 19 — there's not much great depth up front.
There's no Phil Kessel hiding in the shadows. And as good as Giroux was this season — and against the Penguins in the 2012 series when he scored 14 points in six games — he's not Crosby:
Crosby kills the Flyers. It's just what he does. The captain had nine points (two goals, seven assists) in four games this season against Philadelphia. In 63 career regular season games, he has an unconscionable 93 points (38 goals, 55 assists).
Advantage: Penguins
DEFENSE
Few teams receive more offense from their defense than the Flyers, who got 50 goals this season from the blueline.
In Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere, the Flyers have one of the most dynamic young pairs in the league. Provorov tied for the league lead among defensemen with 17 goals and has the look of a future Norris Trophy finalist. The smallish and shifty Gostisbehere — think Erik Karlsson-lite — finished 11th in power play points, including a goal against the Penguins on Nov. 27.
But much like Philadelphia's offense, there's not much behind them, at least at this point (the organization is stocked at the AHL level). Travis Sanheim is a promising rookie, but he can be exploited by the Penguins' skill players, and his partner Andrew MacDonald might be the NHL's most overpaid player at $5 million per season.
And there is the pair of Radko Gudas and Brandon Manning. Those two should figure prominently in this series, but not for all the right reasons.
The Flyers might be a far cry from their Broad Street Bullies days (they were the NHL's 13th-least penalized team), but Gudas and Manning didn't get the memo. Gudas is a punishing hitter with a penchant for questionable play. He's been fined nearly $670,000 in his career. Manning is a borderline NHL defenseman.
Given all that, the Penguins' problems on defense don't seem too bad.
Look for Chad Ruhwedel to remain in the lineup — over Matt Hunwick — as the sixth defenseman. He'll be paired with Jamie Oleksiak, who will be making his playoff debut. Oleksiak had three points and two of his four goals against the Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center this season, including this one on March 7:
Plagued by inconsistencies all season, Kris Letang will look to hit the reset button after missing all of last year's playoff run.
Most of the Penguins' recent defensive issues — odd-man breaks and miscommunication, mainly — have been team-related in nature and not just on the defensemen. When the Penguins are playing as a five-man unit and quick in transition, they can still be quite effective defensively.
Advantage: Draw
GOALTENDING
Given the high-end talent on both sides and question marks on defense, this series isn't going to be too kind on any goaltender's statistics or psyche.
But at least the Penguins know definitively who their goalie will be.
Since coming back from a concussion that sidelined him for nearly a month, one of three extended absences this season, Matt Murray has struggled to regain his form. In his last eight starts, he's allowed 27 goals — a 3.38 goals-against average — while looking shaky with his glove hand and, most recently, leaving his post on this Zach Werenski goal on Thursday:
With Marc-Andre Fleury gone, the Penguins don't have the luxury of a 1 and 1-A in goal. Clearly the pressure is on Murray to perform. Of course, he's always done his best work in the postseason. If he is anything close to as good as he's been the last two springs, when he's had a .928 save percentage and a minuscule 1.95 GAA, the Penguins should be in good shape.
The Flyers have gone 42 years since last winning the Stanley Cup and goaltending has been the biggest reason why for at least the last 25 of them.
Brian Elliott isn't going to be confused for Bernie Parent or even Ron Hextall, but whether he falls in line with Roman Cechmanek, Robert Esche, Michael Leighton and Ilya Bryzgalov remains to be seen. But Elliott does have some pedigree. In 41 career playoff games with Calgary, St. Louis and Ottawa, he has a 2.60 GAA and .908 save percentage.
The bigger question about Elliott is his health. The 32-year-old started the final two games of the regular season, going 1-1, including a 17-save shutout in Saturday's playoff-clinching win over the Rangers. Prior to that, he missed 53 days with a core muscle injury.
With Elliott and backup Michal Neuvirth out with injuries, the Flyers leaned on Petr Mrazek, acquired from Detroit, and rookie Alex Lyon.
Signed to a two-year deal as a free agent last summer, Elliott is likely keeping the seat warm for Carter Hart, a second-round pick in 2016 who led Canada to World Junior gold in January.
Advantage: Penguins
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Flyers have a bit of an unusual power play with two heavy shots on the flanks with Giroux and Voracek and at the top with Gostisbehere. They also have one of the league's best net-front presences in Simmonds. When that unit is clicking, the Flyers can be dangerous.
They just didn't show it consistently enough this season. They ranked just 15th at 20.7 percent and converted in just two of their last six games.
But against a Penguins penalty kill that struggled mightily down the stretch, the Flyers' power play will be one of the biggest storylines to follow in the series.
On the flip side, the Penguins' power play isn't just good, it's historically good. It finished the season with a 26.2 conversion rate, the best in franchise history. Their success against the Flyers this season certainly helped those numbers.
In the four-game series this season, the Penguins went 5-of-13 (38.5 percent) on the power play, while the Flyers were just 2-of-16 (12.5 percent).
Special teams are always crucial in the playoffs, even more so in this matchup.
Advantage: Penguins
COACHING
Hakstol has gone from being on the hot seat to being a possible Jack Adams finalist. Such is life in Philadelphia, where hockey coaches are dismissed as quickly as goalies.
The seventh coach since the turn of the new century, Hakstol — along with GM Hextall — has helped change the culture in Philadelphia, shifting the Flyers from a rough-and-tumble team to more of a skilled one. The Flyers have been inconsistent this season, but when they're on their game, they can be quite good despite their obvious flaws.
This will be Hakstol's second playoff appearance in his three-year reign.
Sullivan has won two Stanley Cups and has yet to lose a playoff series while with the Penguins. Perhaps as much as their power play, this is one more area where this series is lopsided.
Advantage: Penguins.
