Things change constantly the closer you get to the NFL Draft, as the some guys' stock rises and others fall based on rumors that begin to circulate regarding health or off-field issues. The whole process just lasts too long.
But it has afforded me time to do four mock drafts this year. And it also afforded Chris Carter a chance at his second one as we bear down on the actual thing Thursday night at 8 p.m.. Remember, even the teams don't know how this is going to play out.
Will the actual draft look anything like what you're about to read? Maybe, maybe not. But after months of studying it, here's what we came up with. Remember, we don't deal in trades that haven't yet happened. Our soothsaying skills only go so far.
But check back Friday morning and see how many we got right:
1. Cleveland, Sam Darnold, QB, USC — Josh Allen might have more upside, but Darnold is the safer pick. — Lolley
1. Cleveland, Sam Darnold, QB, USC — I switch Darnold into this pick from my last draft because of the conflicting reports on who the Browns want to take first. Between Darnold, Josh Allen and now Baker Mayfield, the reports have created enough of a smokescreen to keep people guessing on who GM John Dorsey might pick. I'm not big on USC quarterbacks being taken so high, but Darnold fits the mold of a franchise quarterback. — Carter
---
2. N.Y. Giants, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State — The Giants seem intent on allowing Eli Manning to leave on his own terms. — Lolley
2. N.Y. Giants, Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming — While the Giants could use a star running back, the way they handled Eli Manning last season was bizarre. When they benched him for Geno Smith, they passed on the opportunity to see what rookie QB Davis Webb had. If they weren't comfortable testing that out last year, maybe they don't think he's their man and will look to this draft class to find Manning's successor. — Carter
---
3. N.Y. Jets, Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma — The Jets try again to get a quarterback. Maybe this time he’ll stick. And they reportedly like Mayfield better than Allen. — Lolley
3. N.Y. Jets, Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma — I'm not a believer in Mayfield, but there is a group of NFL teams that are and that could land him an early pick on Thursday. He's small and he'll have a transition period into a pro-style offense, but the Jets need a quarterback desperately. — Carter
---
4. Cleveland, Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State — The Browns don’t get Barkley but settle for a bookend to Myles Garrett. — Lolley
4. Cleveland, Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State — Pairing this year's top-graded pass rusher with 2016's top-graded pass rushing prospect, Myles Garrett, could complete the pass rush that defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has in mind. — Carter
---
5. Denver, Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame — The Broncos are likely going to trade out of this spot if they don’t take Allen themselves. A corner also would make sense, but Nelson is ready to plug and play. — Lolley
5. Denver, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State— The Broncos do have a few other needs, but they just got rid of C.J. Anderson and now have a huge hole at the position. Giving Case Keenum the best player in this draft to work with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders could rejuvenate the offense. — Carter
---
6. Indianapolis, Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia — The Colts would like Chubb, but would settle for Smith. Another trade-down possibility. — Lolley
6. Indianapolis, Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia — The Colts have a ton of needs going into this draft, but having a field commander in the middle of that defense would fit nicely. Smith is the best linebacker in this draft and could be a good starting point to rebuild this team. — Carter
---
7. Tampa Bay, Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama — Derwin James would be a possibility. But they need more corner help than safety, and Fitzpatrick gives them the best of both worlds. — Lolley
7. Tampa Bay, Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama — I think the Buccaneers are going to do whatever they can to solidify their secondary with this pick. Fitzpatrick is the best on the board, and if he makes it this far, they'll be running to the podium. — Carter
---
8. Chicago, Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech — Chicago needs to get younger and faster up front. The Bears would like Smith but "settle" for Edmunds. — Lolley
8. Chicago, Quinton Nelson, G, Notre Dame — Letting go of Josh Sitton put the Bears in a tough situation on their offensive line. But Nelson is the truth, and that could be a great way to both protect their young star, Mitch Trubisky, and boost their young running backs, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. — Carter
---
9. San Francisco, Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State — The 49ers would love for Smith or Edmunds to get to them. They also would be a trade-down consideration with quarterbacks still on the board. But they’ll take an upgrade at cornerback. — Lolley
9. San Francisco, Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State — If the best pure cornerback falls to the 49ers, they would most likely jump at the chance to solidify their starting secondary. Having Ward learning next to Richard Sherman could be setting up a new Legion of Boom. But they'll still need some safeties. — Carter
---
10. Oakland, Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame — The Raiders’ tackles are aging, and they have to protect Derek Carr. James also gets strong consideration. — Lolley
10. Oakland, Donte Jackson, CB, LSU— The Raiders have their presumed safeties in Karl Joseph and Obi Melifonwu, so they could look to strengthen their cornerbacks. Jackson is one of the best of a fast group, and his acceleration prevents most speedsters from getting behind him. — Carter
---
11. Miami, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA — The Dolphins reportedly like Rosen a lot but have enough needs they might not want to move up to get him. A DT also is a strong consideration. — Lolley
11. Miami, Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech — The Dolphins struck out with their big free agency move last year to make Lawrence Timmons a pillar of their defense. By cutting him, they created a hole in their roster they'll be itching to fill. Edmunds is a freak athlete who certainly would attract a high pick. — Carter
---
12. Buffalo, Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming — The Bills are the team most likely to move up to keep Arizona or Baltimore from jumping ahead of them. — Lolley
12. Buffalo, Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville — I keep trying to justify another player to go here for the Bills, but I don't think there's any way they pass up a quarterback with this spot. Jackson fits the mold of a mobile quarterback who can sling the ball, process defenses and strike deep. That would be an improvement from a similar quarterback they let go in Tyrod Taylor and a significant improvement over A.J. McCarron. — Carter
---
13. Washington, Vita Vea, DT, Washington — I have held steady on this pick forever. Vea is a monster. — Lolley
13. Washington, Derwin James, S, Florida State — While Montae Nicholson and D.J. Swearinger seem like they could be a nice pair of safeties, the prospect of what James brings would blow both out of the water and allow Washington to bump either down in sub packages. — Carter
---
14. Green Bay, Derwin James, S, Florida State — The Packers would love this. James could be a sub-package linebacker or a box safety. Either way, he works here. — Lolley
14. Green Bay, Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville — The Packers are thin at cornerback, and adding a speedster like Alexander could give them the help they need to stop them from being torched through the air. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix gets some much needed help. — Carter
---
15. Arizona, Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville — Arizona should be in play to try to jump ahead of Miami and Buffalo. Sam Bradford is only signed for two years and is, well, Sam Bradford, who might have gotten injured while I was typing this sentence. — Lolley
15. Arizona, Josh Rosen, QB, Louisville — The Cardinals have to read the writing on the wall about Sam Bradford and not think he finally will complete a season. — Carter
---
16. Baltimore, James Daniels, C, Iowa — The Ravens have revamped their receiving corps and miss out on the quarterbacks. They lost center Ryan Jensen, and Daniels would be a more-than-capable replacement. — Lolley
16. Baltimore Ravens, Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas — The Ravens lost Ryan Jensen to free agency and need to add a centerpiece to their offensive line to protect Joe Flacco. Grouping Ragnow, a strong and sturdy center, next to Marshall Yanda could be a huge boost to their ground game. — Carter
---
17. L.A. Chargers, Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama — The Chargers are looking heavily at defensive tackles and safeties. Rashaan Evans is reportedly in play here, as well, but they take Payne. — Lolley
17. L.A. Chargers, Connor Williams, OT, Texas — The Chargers plan to have Phillip Rivers for a few more years, but they'll need to keep him upright if he's going to play for that long. — Carter
---
18. Seattle, Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA — The Seahawks love pass rushers. And despite needs at CB and on the offensive line, they go for Davenport, a lanky edge rusher. — Lolley
18. Seattle, Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA — The Seahawks need to finally solidify their offensive line, and getting a young tackle might be the first step. — Carter
---
19. Dallas, Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State — The neck injury stuff seems a little too smokey to me. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cowboys planted the rumors to make sure he falls. — Lolley
19. Dallas, Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State — The Cowboys' defense has been struggling, and Vander Esch seems like the second coming of Sean Lee. — Carter
---
20. Detroit, Harold Landry, DE, Boston College — With Davenport off the board, the Lions take the next-best edge rusher. — Lolley
20. Detroit, Vita Vea, DT, Washington — Vea is the prototypical problem in the middle of the Lions' defense. If he falls this low, they would jump at the chance at another interior pass rusher. — Carter
---
21. Cincinnati, Billy Price, C, Ohio State —Price’s medical issues should be cleared up by training camp, and the Bengals would like to grab an Ohio State guy. — Lolley
21. Cincinnati, James Daniels, G/C, Iowa — The Bengals need a good amount of help on their offensive line, so they make that move by adding one of the better interior linemen of this draft. — Carter
---
22. Buffalo, Will Hernandez, G, UTEP -- The Bills replace Richie Incognito with another power, run-blocking guard. — Lolley
22. Buffalo, Will Hernandez, G, UTEP — The Bills need interior linemen to help control the line in front of Rosen and McCoy. Hernandez is a heck of a guard who can replace Richie Incognito. — Carter
---
23. New England, Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama — The Patriots’ front seven was pathetic last season. The Patriots also need corner and tackle help but know Evans won’t get past the Steelers. — Lolley
23. New England, Mike Hughes, CB, UCF — The Patriots got torched in the Super Bowl when they made a silly decision to bench Malcolm Butler. But that mistake is one Bill Belichick will learn from quickly, and he addresses it by adding an aggressive cornerback in the draft. — Carter
---
24. Carolina, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama — The Panthers need to find a target for Cam Newton. — Lolley
24. Carolina, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama — The Panthers gave away Kelvin Benjamin and lost their big receiver for Cam Newton. They replace him with the highest-regarded receiver in this draft. — Carter
---
25. Tennessee, Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State — The Titans won’t pass on Evans if he gets this far. They’d like Landry, as well. But Hubbard fits here, as well for new head coach and former Buckeye star Mike Vrabel. — Lolley
25. Tennessee, Marcus Davenport, OLB/DE, UTSA — The Titans are going to be looking for a pass rusher, and Davenport is the first 3-4 OLB pass rusher on my board. A perfect fit. — Carter
---
26. Atlanta, Taven Bryan, DT, Florida — The Falcons desperately need a big body up front. Bryan fills that need. — Lolley
26. Atlanta, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU — The Falcons need to add some help for Julio Jones and add a 6-foot-4 receiver into the mix to attract attention from the defense. — Carter
---
27. New Orleans, D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland — Former Pirates’ prospect Dallas Goedert is a consideration here, but he’s 26. Moore helps replace Willie Snead, who signed as a restricted free agent with Baltimore. — Lolley
27. New Orleans, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina — The Saints have been looking for a replacement for Jimmy Graham since he left for Seattle, and they find their man in this year's highest-graded tight end. — Carter
---
28. Pittsburgh, Justin Reid, S, Stanford — The Steelers could trade back with a team that wants a running back or a shot at Mason Rudolph. I don’t see them moving up high enough to get to Vander Esch or Evans. So they take Reid. Jessie Bates also gets strong consideration. Reid came out as a true junior, fitting the profile the Steelers like in their first-round picks, and is basically the same size (6-1, 204) as Sean Davis. But he also ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. And he’s a playmaker. Stanford used him in the slot last season, and he struggled at times there against smaller receivers. The Steelers will use him as a deep free safety. — Lolley
28. Pittsburgh, Rashaan Evans, Alabama — The Steelers are looking for an ace at inside linebacker, and if Evans is available, he will be that guy. He's not the supreme cover linebacker, but he provides a great run-stopping knack with great blitzing and the athleticism to fly across the field. Evans will be the force in the middle the team needs and stop the run at crucial points of attack. If the team ever gets back Ryan Shazier in the form he was before he got injured, he and Evans would be a lethal combination. — Carter
---
29. Jacksonville, Isaiah Wynn, OL, Georgia — Tom Coughlin likes to build both lines. And he gets a big, athletic mauler here. — Lolley
29. Jacksonville, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M — The Jaguars need playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, and Kirk is as explosive as they come. If he makes it this far, they would be happy to add such a dangerous weapon. — Carter
---
30. Minnesota, Conner Williams, OT, Texas — The Vikings' offensive line was better last year but still needs some work. — Lolley
30. Minnesota, Isaiah Wynn, G/T, Georgia — The return of Dalvin Cook is going to be a huge boost to the Vikings' offense, but only if they can plow the road for him. Wynn is a major player who can play both guard and tackle and has the athleticism to pull and become a lead blocker. — Carter
---
31. New England, Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA — The Patriots get Nate Solder’s replacement at the end of the first round. — Lolley
31. New England, Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame — The Patriots lost Sebastian Vollmer two years ago and Nate Solder this year, leaving their depth chart extremely thin at tackle. McGlinchey is a big tackle they can pair with Marcus Cannon to help protect Tom Brady moving forward and help reload at the position. — Carter
---
32. Philadelphia, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU — I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team in the first part of the second round trade up for Guice. That could be what the Steelers are hoping for to get an extra third or fourth round pick. Tampa Bay is a serious contender. Cleveland also could make a move up after missing on Barkley. — Lolley
32. Philadelphia, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia — The Eagles had a dangerous run-pass option that worked on their way to the Super Bowl last season, so adding an athletic talent to the position only makes sense. — Carter