WASHINGTON -- Here we go, again.
For the third straight year the Penguins meet the Capitals in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Each of the previous two years Washington won the Metropolitan Division while the Penguins went on to win the playoff series and then the Stanley Cup.
Does that mean history will repeat?
It might, but it's not quite that simple. The cores of both teams remain the same but the Capitals are quite different in terms of personnel and expectations.
"Different years, different personnel," Kris Letang said. "It's a new year."
The only safe bet in this series is that it will not be short. In the last three postseason meetings (2009, '16 and '17), the series went seven, six and seven games. We should expect nothing less.
OFFENSE
Justin Williams -- the Mr. Game 7 who didn't come through in Game 7 last year -- is gone. So, too, is Marcus Johansson. Andre Burakovsky is out with a shoulder injury.
The Capitals might have lost some familiar names and their offense isn't as deep or as dynamic as in years past but they still managed to finish ninth in goals per game at 3.12 despite averaging the fewest shots per game (29.0) and a Corsi For percentage (47.99) that ranks among the bottom third of the league.
Tom Wilson's antics draw a lot of attention, and rightfully so, but the 6-foot-4, 218 pound right wing can be a force. During the regular season he set career highs in goals (14), assists (21) and points (35). In addition to that, he drew the most penalties in the NHL this season with 40. Brian Dumoulin would seem most likely to mark Wilson.
The Capitals have gotten to this point with improved team speed and a more balanced attack than in recent incarnations. They also have received timely scoring from bottom-six forwards like Devante Smith-Pelly and Lars Eller, who scored two goals each in Washington's first-round series win over Columbus.
Those contributions have lifted some of the burden that has weighed heavily on Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie in the past. Ovechkin scored five goals and Kuznetsov had four in the Capitals' six-game series win over the Blue Jackets.
Ovechkin, who won his seventh goal-scoring title to tie Bobby Hull for the most all-time, continued to be a thorn in the Penguins' sides this season, scoring five points in four games. The Great Eight has never reached the third round of the playoffs in his career and this series, fairly or not, will be another referendum on his otherwise brilliant career.
"He’s definitely one of the better shooters in the game and dangerous," Olli Maatta said of the Russian. "You just have to be aware of when he is on the ice. He can really score, he’s dangerous out there."
Even without Evgeni Malkin and Carl Hagelin, who will both miss at least Game 1, the Penguins' group of forwards have superior speed and skill.
Advantage: Penguins
DEFENSE
Nowhere were the Capitals free agent defections felt more than along their blue line. The Capitals lost Nate Schmidt, Karl Alzner and Kevin Shattenkirk from last year's team that fell to Pittsburgh in seven games.
Despite that, the Capitals still managed to average just 2.90 goals against and 31.9 shots against per game, to rank in the middle of the pack.
The key to Washington's defense is John Carlson. In his ninth season, the 28-year-old enjoyed a breakout season, establishing career highs in goals (15) and assists (53) for a league-leading 68 points among defensemen. He has been most recently paired with the strong-skating Michal Kempny, a trade deadline acquisition from Chicago who has fit in seamlessly.
The second pair of Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen is an effective duo at both ends. Of course, much attention will be paid to Niskanen, who infamously delivered a crosscheck to Crosby's head in last year's series, knocking the captain out for a game.
Washington's third pair of Brooks Orpik and Christian Djoos is the weak link in their defense. The 37-year-old Orpik is slowing down and Djoos is a 23-year-old rookie. That would look to be a favorable matchup that the Penguins' forwards -- the third line of Bryan Rust, Conor Sheary and Derick Brassard -- could exploit.
The Penguins defense, nowhere near as deep as in years past, has had its own fair share of issues this season, but they seemed to answer many of them in their first-round series win over Philadelphia. Keep an eye on how much they deploy the third pair of Jamie Oleksiak and Chad Ruhwedel. Oleksiak averaged just 11:51 of ice time in the first round.
Advantage: Draw
GOALTENDING
More than Crosby vs. Ovechkin, the most compelling matchup is between the pipes.
By all accounts, Matt Murray had a difficult season professionally and personally. He had three extended absences, two due to injury and one following the death of his father. But he was always, unquestionably, the Penguins' goalie.
The same can't be said of Braden Holtby, his Washington counterpart.
The two-time Vezina winner saw his starts begin to dwindle when his save percentage fell below .900 in February. Eventually he was replaced by career backup Philipp Grubauer, who went 15-10-3 in his place.
Grubauer started the Capitals' last game in Pittsburgh on April 1 and was in goal for Game 1 of the Capitals' first-round series against Columbus. But the German lasted just two games, giving up eight goals on 49 shots, paving the way for Holtby to return.
Holtby responded by going 4-1 with a .932 save percentage and 1.92 goals-against average.
'He's one of the best in the world," Murray said of Holtby. "Tough competitor, tough mentally. Guy I look up to. He's one of the best and he showed it."
If Holtby falters, the Capitals are confident in going back to their backup. The same might not be said of the Penguins.
When they beat Washington a year ago, it was with Marc-Andre Fleury in net. A good argument could be made that Fleury was the key to the Penguins advancing. But this year, Casey DeSmith does not offer them the luxury of a proven backup.
Murray appeared to suffer an injury of some sort in practice before Game 5 in the Philadelphia series. Though he reported he was fine afterward, he has given up nine goals over his last two games.
Advantage: Draw
SPECIAL TEAMS
Washington's power play ranked seventh during the regular season, converting at 22 percent, which could have been even better considering the talent on the first unit: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie, Kuznetsov and Carlson, who was tied for fifth with 28 power play assists.
However, that group elevated its game in the first round against Columbus, converting on nine of 27 chances for a playoff-best 33.3 percent conversion rate. The Penguins penalty kill, a question mark entering the postseason, did yeoman's work against the Flyers, killing off 19 of 21 chances.
"They have a lot of skill, they make a lot of plays," Letang said of Washington's power play.
The Capitals' penalty kill ranked a pedestrian 15th at 80.3 percent. The Penguins' top-ranked power play went 6-for-19 against Washington during the regular season. Pittsburgh's power play went 5-for-25 in the first-round.
The power play has been the Penguins' greatest weapon all season and it will have to be if the Penguins are to get past Washington.
Advantage: Penguins
COACHING
If the Penguins' power play is their biggest advantage, coaching might be No. 2.
Barry Trotz has spent his adult life as an NHL coach. But in his 19 years, the last four behind Washington's bench, he's yet to get out of the second round. Trotz has earned a reputation for not being a good in-game coach, who is slow to make adjustments as necessary.
Since being hired in Pittsburgh in December of 2015, Mike Sullivan has known nothing but two Stanley Cup championships. After a slow start to this season, his team is hitting its stride in the playoffs.
Advantage: Penguins
MATT SUNDAY GALLERY