WASHINGTON -- If Alex Ovechkin doesn't shoot wide on his patented one-timer from the left circle, if Devante Smith-Pelly doesn't miss a wide-open net, maybe Game 1 would have turned out differently for the Capitals.
It didn't. But as expected, the difference between victory and defeat is razor-thin between the Penguins and Capitals, the top two teams in the Metro Division.
Expect more of the same in Game 2 today.
1. Expect temperature to rise.
There were just three penalties called in Game 1, with two of those against Washington.
That's a marked difference from the Penguins' first-round series against the Flyers in which Pittsburgh averaged 4.1 power plays per game in the six-game series. Obviously, the Penguins' rivalry with the Capitals is a little different than that against the Flyers, but you can expect the temperature — and the number of penalties — to begin to rise as the series goes on.
The Penguins' penalty kill, a question mark entering the postseason, has successfully killed off 20 of 22 chances this spring, including a brief one midway through the third period of Game 1 when they didn't allow a shot.
Tom Kuhnhackl, the Penguins' top shot-blocker, says his team's best defense is not taking penalties against Washington's power play, which converted at 33 percent in the first round against Columbus. Neither team has control over how the referees will call the game, but he says they have to prepare as if every penalty will be called.
"It’s going to be an intense game out there," said Kuhnhackl, who averages 2:07 shorthanded. "Sometimes they call slashes and sometimes they don’t. Might be the exact same thing. Sometimes they call it, some they don’t. If they call it, we have just have to make sure we do our best to manage to kill them."
2. More shots, please
The Penguins were held to just 25 shots on goal (on 41 attempts) in Game 1, their fewest this postseason after averaging 30.7 against Philadelphia.
Under Barry Trotz, a defensive-minded coach, Washington likes to collapse its defense, taking away the home plate area. With the shooting lanes blocked, the Penguins were still able to score a pair of goals on tips, including this one from Jake Guentzel which went for the game-winner on Thursday:
Getting bodies to the front of the net remains the top priority for all Penguins forwards but, barring that, giving their defensemen an alternative like shooting intentionally wide for a carom off the end boards or aiming for a stick blade can be an effective counter to the Capitals' defense.
3. Penguins need better starts.
Both Washington goals in Game 1 came off 0dd-man rushes in the opening 30 seconds of a period, including this Alex Ovechkin goal :28 into the third:
The Penguins need to have a better defensive awareness early, particularly the top line and defense pair. As good as the trio of Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist and Jake Guentzel have been, especially in that 4:49 stretch of Game 1, they were also on the ice for Evgeny Kuznetsov's breakaway goal and Ovechkin's 2-on-1 tally.
When scoring first, the Capitals are 3-3, compared to 3-0 for the Penguins.
Given their history against the Penguins and how Game 1 unfolded, one would have to think that Braden Holtby and the Capitals are rattled. If the Penguins score early ... could we see Philipp Grubauer?
The Penguins felt they let one get away in Game 2 in their last series against Philadelphia, allowing the Flyers to extend the series to six games. With a chance to take a stranglehold in this series, look for the Penguins to come out with a more complete effort.