ST. LOUIS -- Nine months following their 20th straight losing season, the Pirates selected Austin Meadows ninth overall in the Major League Baseball Draft. Meadows, a high school outfielder from Loganville, Ga., was ranked the draft's sixth-best prospect, according to Baseball America.
Three years later, he was ranked sixth in Baseball America's Top 100; however, he played 420 games in the minor leagues before making his major-league debut. Unlike top draft picks in football and basketball, those selected high by MLB teams, more often than not, must make a long trek through the minor leagues before competing in the majors.
While college players can contribute earlier, there are often high school players with more potential upside who will need more seasoning in the minors. The Pirates, selecting in the top 10 for the first time since 2013, must decide which category to choose from with their first pick when the MLB Draft begins Monday night.
On Day 1, they hold the 10th overall pick in the first round, the the first pick in Competitive Balance Round A, 36th overall, and the 51st overall pick. Rounds three through 10 will be held on Tuesday, followed by 11 through 40 on Wednesday.
"There doesn’t seem to be the marquee guy that maybe some past drafts have had," Neal Huntington said. "There’s college pitching, there’s college position players, some guys who have taken some huge steps forward this year. We’ll have to figure out what’s different and can they sustain it. There’s always high school arms. There’s some high school bats, so all four quadrants are well-represented again this year. There isn’t a whole lot of clarity in front of us. … Two through nine seem to be variable at this point."
The overwhelming consensus among evaluators is the Tigers will select Auburn right-handed pitcher Casey Mize first overall; however, there is uncertainty surrounding picks two through 10. The Giants pick second, followed by the Phillies, White Sox, Reds, Mets, Padres, Braves and Athletics before the Pirates make their selection.
They've reportedly shown interest in a number of high school pitchers, which would be a logical selection. After all, the Pirates have chosen only two starting pitchers in the first round since they took Gerrit Cole first overall in 2011. They picked Shane Baz, a right-hander from Tomball, Texas, 12th overall last season, and Baz made 10 starts in the Gulf Coast League last summer.
Baz is listed on the Pirates' GCL affiliate roster, although he'll likely move on to short-season West Virginia after a handful of starts. Mark Appel, selected eighth overall by the Pirates in 2012, didn't sign and has since retired from professional baseball.
The Pirates have used four of their past five first-round picks on infielders: Will Craig, a college first baseman, in 2016, shortstop Kevin Newman and third baseman KeBryan Hayes in 2015, and shortstop Cole Tucker in 2014. Although their top prospects, right-handed starting pitcher Mitch Keller and lefty starter Taylor Hearn, are in Double-A, the organization needs more talented arms in the lower levels of the minor leagues.
Luis Escobar, a 22-year-old right-hander who represented the Pirates in the Futures Game during All-Star Game festivities last July, has a 1.21 WHIP in 48 innings with High-A Bradenton. They have also have selected a few promising arms the past three seasons, including Steven Jennings in the second round last season and Brandon Waddell in 2015. But another young arm would balance out the farm system.
The top high school arm in the class is 6-foot-5 left-hander Matthew Liberatore from Glendale, Ariz. Liberatore, who committed to the University of Arizona, has reportedly reached 96 mph with his fastball and throws a curveball, changeup and slider. Baseball America's latest mock draft had the Pirates selecting Carter Stewart, a 6-foot-6 right-hander from Melbourne, Fla.
Stewart's curveball is ranked by ESPN's Keith Law as the best in the class, and the pitch complements a fastball that has reportedly reached 98 mph. Kumar Rocker, Ryan Weathers and Ethan Hankins are other options. Although there's always the risk of a player not signing, that shouldn't be an issue for the Pirates this year.
Their $10,390,400 bonus pool is the eighth-highest in the majors. Each pick in the first 10 rounds of the Draft has an assigned value, and the total for each of a club's selections equals what it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. Any bonus money above $125,000 given to an individual player picked in rounds 11 through 40 also counts against a team's allotment.
Each pick in the first three rounds is given a value — ninth overall is $4,560,200 — but if a team signs a player to a bonus that is less than the slot value of the pick, they may then reallocate the unused bonus to another player chosen in another round. It will be difficult to pay under the slot value for a high school pitcher or position player, since college is an option if he doesn't like the offer.
If the Pirates bypass one of the pitchers, they could opt for a prep outfielder.
They added Jason Martin and Bryan Reynolds in trades during the offseason; however, both are expected to finish the season with Triple-A Indianapolis. Lolo Sanchez, ranked the Pirates' No. 10 prospect by Baseball America, is batting only .205 in 43 games with Low-A West Virginia, although he's still only 19 years old.
Calvin Mitchell, a second-round pick last season — also 19 years old — is batting .319 with a .923 OPS at Low-A West Virginia. Beyond Sanchez and Mitchell, there isn't much outfield depth in the lower levels of the minors. They could draft a prep outfielder such as Jarred Kelenic, the only outfielder in the high school class to unanimously make the first team in Baseball America’s Preseason All-America vote, as decided by major league scouting directors.
The Pirates are well-stocked in the infield, though. Newman and Kevin Kramer are at Triple-A, while Hayes and Tucker are in their first full season in Double-A. Oneil Cruz, a 19-year-old 6-foot-6 shortstop acquired from the Dodgers in the Tony Watson trade last season, has an .841 OPS for Class A West Virginia. They also have shortstop Stephen Alemais in Double-A and Ji-Hwan Bae, an 18-year-old shortstop from South Korea, has rejoined the organization in extended spring training after returning to his home country to face allegations of domestic abuse.
MLB's draft is the most unpredictable of the four major professional sports. Opting for a college arm or bat, perceived to be a safer pick, doesn't always work out. Craig was a first-team All-American at Wake Forest as a third baseman and designated hitter; however, he's batting .245 with a .759 OPS in Double-A and hasn't played third base in nearly two years.
A draft class isn't measured by success in the first round; however, taking advantage of a high draft pick can provide a franchise with a foundational piece under contract for the better part of a decade.
INDIANAPOLIS
• After leading Triple-A Indianapolis with 39 hits in May, Newman went 3 for 7 with three stolen bases in two games over the weekend. He's now stolen 13 this season, tied with Durham's Andrew Velazquez for the most in the International League. Newman, a first-round pick in 2015, is batting .313 with a .744 OPS in 48 games.
• Kramer, ranked by MLB.com as the Pirates' No. 8 prospect entering the season, is batting .258 with six home runs, 27 runs and 21 RBI in 49 games. The left-handed hitter is batting only .216 against lefties, compared to .274 against right-handers. He also leads the Indians with 55 strikeouts.
• Relievers Johnny Hellweg, Tanner Anderson and Dovydas Neverauskas have combined for 11 saves and a 0.67 ERA (5 ER/67.1 IP) since April 7. They've allowed just 45 hits and 23 walks with 61 strikeouts, posting a 1.01 WHIP.
ALTOONA
• Martin, acquired from the Astros in the Cole trade, has seven three-hit games and 16 multi-hit games for Double-A Altoona this season. Martin, 22, is ranked third in the Pirates organization and eighth in the Eastern League with a .318 batting average. His seven homers are second on the team and rank tied for third in the Pittsburgh organization.
• Alemais, a third-round pick in 2016, is batting .435 over his last 14 games with a home run, four doubles, a triple, eight RBIs, 11 runs and six multi-hit games. Defensively, he also leads Eastern League second basemen with 41 games, 195 total chances, 128 assists and eight errors.
• Hayes, selected 32nd overall in 2015, has hit safely in 15 of his last 20 games and is batting .338 (26/77) since May 11 with 11 doubles, two triples, three homers, nine RBIs and 13 runs.
• Keller, ranked by Baseball America as the Pirates' top prospect, has a 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 55 strikeouts to 22 walks in 60 innings over 10 starts.
BRADENTON
• Right-handed pitchers Matt Eckelman and Eduardo Vera, along with infielder Alfredo Reyes, were named to the Florida State League's mid-season All-Star team. Eckelman, a 24-year-old former 21st-round pick, has a 1.02 WHIP in 17 2/3 innings of relief this season. Vera, a starting pitcher recently promoted to Double-A Altoona, has a 0.97 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Reyes, a 24-year-old shortstop, is batting .294 with 15 stolen bases in 42 games with High-A Bradenton.
• Escobar, who had 168 strikeouts with Class A West Virginia last year, has 40 strikeouts in 48 innings and opponents are batting .228 against him. The right-hander has also posted a career-best ground-ball rate.
• Outfielder Tyler Gaffney was a 24th-round pick of the Pirates in 2012; however, he chose to pursue professional football instead and was drafted in the sixth round by the Panthers in 2014. Gaffney, the PAC 12 championship game MVP at Stanford in 2013, didn't appear in a regular-season NFL game, but he was on the roster for two Super Bowl wins.
Gaffney announced his retirement from football in March and joined Bradenton, where he's batting .291 in 38 games, including .394 over his last 10 games.
WEST VIRGINIA
• Sanchez, ranked by Baseball America as the Pirates' No. 9 prospect, is batting .274 over his past 10 games and hit a solo home run against Lexington on Tuesday. A right-handed hitter, Sanchez is batting ninth for the Power and has a .157 average against right-handed pitching.
• Second baseman Rodolfo Castro batted .282 over his last 10 games, raising his average this season to .231. Castro, a 19-year-old switch-hitter, has five home runs and 18 RBIs in 46 games.
• Mitchell, a right fielder, ranks fourth in the South Atlantic League in batting average, second in doubles, sixth in home runs and fifth in RBIs.