Kovacevic: Always trust Rutherford, Crosby

CRANBERRY, Pa. -- Look, I don't like Jack Johnson for five months, let alone five years.

There's no rational reason to like the Penguins clearing out precious cap space, then promptly recommitting it to a 31-year-old defenseman who struggled immensely this past season in Columbus, never mind doing so for half a decade at a guaranteed $16.25 million. But that, as a source close to Johnson informed DKPittsburghSports.com yesterday, is exactly what will occur Sunday morning at the opening of NHL free agency.

It's not awful, coming at a reasonable $3.25 million average annual value. But it's not exactly awesome, either. And it's hard to fathom how that could change going forward:

•  Johnson entered the league with Los Angeles in 2006, and his plus-minus ratings over 11 full seasons are as follows: -19, -18, -15, -21, -7, -5, -7, -13, -16, +23 and -6 just now in 2017-18. His cumulative minus-109 is the worst of anyone on any team in that span. Longtime readers can attest I'll throw out plus-minus more often than not, but that stark an imbalance -- and it's not like the Kings and Blue Jackets were terrible all that time -- is a fair barometer for a defenseman over a decade and change.

• His advanced metrics are barely better: Of all 356 defensemen to have logged at least 100 games during his career, Johnson's 48.0 percent Corsi rating -- shots for/against when he's on the ice -- ranks 275th, according to research by NBC Sports.

• He could usually compensate by scoring, but even that's been lost. Since producing 40 points in 2014-15, his next three seasons saw point totals of 14, 23 and a career-low 11 in 2017-18. Only three goals on 88 shots in the latter.

Yikes, right?

The playoffs didn't go any better. After the Blue Jackets took the first two games from the Capitals, then lost the next three, Johnson was made a healthy scratch for Game 6 by John Tortorella, essentially sealing his exit after seven seasons in Columbus. No way they'd try to keep him from free agency.

So, here he is. Or here he'll be. And when he arrives, he'll be expected to bump someone from this default top six:

Brian Dumoulin-Kris Letang

Olli Maatta-Justin Schultz

Jamie Oleksiak-Chad Ruhwedel

The obvious odd man out is Ruhwedel, who's probably best as a No. 7 on a contender, anyway. But if Johnson's a better defenseman right now than Ruhwedel, that requires quite the eye-strain on the statistics, as Ruhwedel's past two seasons saw him produce 15 points and a plus-1 rating over 78 games, as well as a 50.8 Corsi rating. Johnson's Corsi rating in that same span was an embarrassing 48.2 percent.

But, even assuming that Johnson's somehow superior, it can easily be argued that the defense as a whole becomes lesser for Oleksiak having to switch sides, which he'll have to do under any alignment. He can play his off-side, and he'll tell you he doesn't mind, but he isn't nearly as crisp on the right, especially on breakouts.

Again, I don't like this. At all.

But then, I pause and consider one other rather colossal factor: Rutherford, Bill Guerin, Mike Sullivan and, yes, Sidney Crosby deserve the benefit of the doubt.

And make no mistake: They and a good many other people sporting multiple rings are in on this decision. Rutherford trusts Guerin, confides in him, no longer operating on an island as he did upon arrival. He also confers with Sullivan, to the point where he'll openly solicit suggestions about players his coach likes or doesn't like. And you'd better believe he communicates with his captain about something like this specifically, since Crosby and Johnson have been close friends going back to prep school.

These men didn't dump champagne all over each other from San Jose to Nashville to Stanwix Street because they're dumb. They've made mistakes, of course, but they aren't dumb. And this, on its face, looks dumb, so I'm almost clawing for a reason why it might not be dumb.

With advance apologies for the oversimplification, then, I'll step down. I'll wait. I'll watch Johnson stumble around toward a minus-2 on opening night against Washington, and I'll dismiss it as jitters. I'll watch Johnson get relegated to a third pairing and limited ice, while dragging down Oleksiak in the process, and I'll downplay it as too early to judge.

Oh, and I might also be wrong. That'd hardly be a first.

Maybe this guy, who seemed so completely comfortable with all his many moves yesterday even when I asked a challenging question about his remaining left wingers ...

... maybe he had a reason for that calm.

Maybe being away from the cretinous Tortorella, famous for tormenting his players publicly and otherwise, will bring back Johnson's smile, one of the best in hockey. I got to know him mostly through his work with the U.S. Olympic team in Vancouver in 2010, and he was every bit "the heart and soul of USA Hockey," as Zach Parise once called him. No one wore the red, white and blue with more pride. It could be that his personality's been stifled, his confidence shaken.

Maybe being out of Columbus itself will help. Zero playoff series victories in 18 years of existence speaks to issues that run a lot deeper than Tortorella being a pain. It could be that all that losing beat him down, as well.

Maybe being anywhere that doesn't remind him of that financial fiasco with his weirdo parents will help. Keep those two the hell out of Allegheny County.

Maybe Sullivan and Jacques Martin will help, much the same as what happened with Justin Schultz when he, too, came from a perpetual loser with the Oilers. Schultz was six years younger when escaping Edmonton, so the comparison isn't wholly valid, but who knows?

Maybe Sullivan, for that matter, grasps better than most how Tortorella can beat a player down.

Maybe Sergei Gonchar can work more of his magic with another defenseman. No one at any level of  the organization has made Rutherford look smarter more often than old No. 55.

And maybe, too, Sid has reason to have his own faith. I'll always buy what he's selling when it comes to hockey. No one studies it, lives it, breathes it, quite the way he does. And it's not as if he won't know eyes will be on him, too, if Johnson flops.

Plenty of time on this clock.

MATT SUNDAY GALLERY