WASHINGTON -- The first half of the Pirates' 132nd season ended with a remarkable come-from-behind win, capped by a soaring line drive through the rain and a celebration that seemed to wash away all that went wrong over the previous two months.
The Pirates, winners in six straight and eight of their last nine, are now back to one game under .500 and playing their best baseball in two months. Yet, they're still nine games back in the Central Division with only a 3.7 percent chance of making the postseason, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Now, they have only 10 games to convince Neal Huntington to not trade away veterans such as Corey Dickerson or Jordy Mercer. Huntington must decide whether or not the final week of the first half was an anomaly or a team finally realizing its potential after it allowed 17 runs twice during the previous week.
Bell's game-winning hit may have created good vibes, but it didn't correct the roster's shortcomings.
"It reminds us what we did the first 7-8 weeks of the season when we climbed to nine games over and that we can be an interesting team, a team that pitches well, runs the bases well, can hit and hit with some power," Huntington said Sunday at PNC Park. "Reminds us that’s what we can be. Unfortunately, we also had a seven-week stretch where we fell seven games below .500. While we’ve closed ground in the division and closed ground in the Wild Card, we’ve had a great week against really good teams. We need to do more. Need to continue to play this way.”
BELL, OTHERS POWERLESS
Bell, still only 25 years old, wanted to drive in 100 runs with or without Andrew McCutchen on the roster in 2018. That goal wasn't far-fetched, either. The switch-hitter had 26 home runs with 90 RBIs in 159 games last season. He posted an .800 OPS despite having a .278 batting average on balls in play.
Bell's production has been pedestrian this season, though. Despite his photo finish, he has only five home runs in 326 at-bats with a .738 OPS. He has only 44 RBIs with a 103 weight-runs created plus, which ranks fifth among Pirates with at least 80 games played, and is batting only .159 against breaking balls. Also, opponents have shifted against him 68 times this season, compared to only 13 times all of last season.
He's posted a .188 weighted on-base average against the shift this season, compared to .359 when he's not shifted against. Bell's also swung at more pitches out of the strike zone, while he's batted just .171 when facing two strikes. However, he's gained traction since being moved out of the cleanup spot, batting .333 with a .887 OPS in 18 games in the six-hole.
Bell's not the only one not hitting for power. Hurdle and Huntington expressed optimism the Pirates would still pack a punch in 2018, despite McCutchen's departure — he hit a team-high 28 homers in 2017. But the Pirates rank 23rd in home runs, with Polanco's 16 leading the team at the break.
Corey Dickerson has hit only seven in 86 games after having 24 or more in three of the previous four seasons. Marte (13) is the only other player with more than 10 home runs. Sure, the offense has scored the seventh-most runs in the National League, but it's been prone to long slumps and none of the starters have been consistent.
BULLPEN FAILURES
Felipe Vazquez has returned to form over the past month, earning his first career All-Star Game appearance. Also, Kyle Crick, the right-handed reliever acquired from the Giants in the McCutchen trade, has made 14 consecutive scoreless appearances and has a 1.98 ERA in 35 1/3 innings.
"Crick came out of nowhere, and he's done a really good job," Vazquez said Monday at Nationals Park.
While Crick has emerged, others have faltered. Four relievers who made the opening day roster have either been released, demoted to Triple-A or continue to struggle. George Kontos, acquired off waivers from the Giants last August, was designated for assignment after posting a 5.03 ERA and .878 opponents' OPS in 19 2/3 innings pitched.
Dovydas Neverauskas and Josh Smoker, an offseason trade acquisition, posted ERAs of 11.85 and 11.12, respectively, before being demoted to Triple-A. Michael Feliz, a 24-year-old reliever included in the Cole trade with the Astros, failed in his brief audition as the setup man and has allowed 17 earned runs on 23 hits in his past 16 1/3 innings.
The Pirates' 4.33 bullpen ERA ranks 21st in the majors and has allowed 30 percent of inherited runners to score — tied for the sixth-worst mark in the NL. Both Steven Brault and Tyler Glasnow have shown erratic command as long relievers.
It's been one of Huntington's most glaring failures. While Edgar Santana and Richard Rodriguez have been promising, the bullpen lacks middle relief and depth — two necessities when relying on four young or unproven starters in the rotation.
ROTATION TOO ... AVERAGE
While Cole was selected to the All-Star Game, ranking sixth in the American League in ERA and second in strikeouts, the Pirates' rotation remains unpredictable. They rank 11th in the NL in ERA, ninth in WHIP, 12th in opponents' batting average and ninth in strikeouts.
None of the six pitchers who have made at least one start have been spectacular:
• Jameson Taillon (19 starts, 3.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 103 strikeouts, 30 walks, 12 home runs allowed)
• Ivan Nova (18 starts, 4.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 79 strikeouts, 17 walks, 19 home runs allowed)
• Chad Kuhl (16 starts, 4.55 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 81 strikeouts, 33 walks, 14 home runs allowed)
• Trevor Williams (19 starts, 4.36 ERA), 1.25 WHIP, 71 strikeouts, 35 walks, 12 home runs allowed)
• Joe Musgrove (8 starts, 4.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 45 strikeouts, 12 walks, five home runs allowed)
• Nick Kingham (9 starts, 4.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 51 strikeouts, 12 walks, 10 home runs allowed)
• Clay Holmes (2 starts, 3.65 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 10 strikeouts, 8 walks, 0 home runs allowed)
The Pirates' rotation has received 4.4 runs of support per start, which is tied for sixth in the NL with the Brewers, Phillies, Cardinals and Nationals. Yet, it's no secret why this club is behind each of those teams in the standings — they've had too many short starts. This rotation's goal in spring training was to pitch deeper into games. After all, short starts severely taxed the bullpen last season.
Starters are averaging 5.5 innings per game, which ranks league average, and just 88 pitches per start, although Clint Hurdle's quick hook has contributed to that figure.
That said, Taillon has performed like a frontline starter at times. Musgrove, also acquired in the Cole trade, has proven capable of pitching in the rotation after being used as a reliever by the Astros last season. For all the group's shortcomings, the promise of those two starters offers hope for what this rotation could be in the future.
ANYONE BUT OUTFIELD?
Despite McCutchen's departure, Pirates outfielders have combined for the second-highest batting average and OPS in the NL, and they lead the league in total bases and assists. Dickerson, acquired from the Rays in exchange for Daniel Hudson, minor-league shortstop Tristan Grey and cash, has the fourth-highest batting average among NL outfielders with at least 200 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, Marte ranks 16th in wins above replacement, leads the league with 25 stolen bases, has nine outfield assists — despite his move from left to center field — ranking second-most in the majors, and he finished the first half on a 12-game hitting streak. Polanco, even with his .192 average in 41 games from April 13 through June 5, now has a .823 OPS with 51 RBIs at the break.
Also, Austin Meadows batted .298 with an .810 OPS in 48 games before being sent back to Triple-A. The outfield, overall, has been a strength, despite what some critics have said.
The infield, however, has been a disaster. Bell ranks 18th among first basemen in fWAR, while Josh Harrison is 19th among second basemen, Jordy Mercer ranks 21st among shortstops and Colin Moran 20th among third baseman.
So, you can imagine why Huntington might be skeptical of the Pirates' final week before the break and why he was geared up to sell three weeks before the trade deadline.