Predicting how a team will fare, according to its schedule, is often an exercise in futility. If anyone could speak to that with any certainty, they wouldn’t be sharing that information. They’d be in Las Vegas making millions.
But figuring out where a team might have a stumble or pull off an upset can be interesting. Now that training camp is right around the corner, we’ll take a look at the Steelers' schedule for 2018 and predict the AFC's playoff field.
The schedule is supposed to be more difficult. And with the NFC South and AFC West coupled with their first-place schedule, you’d think it would be one of the more difficult in the league. At least that’s what a lot of people are saying.
In reality, the schedule ranks tied for 25th in terms of 2017 winning percentage. Certainly, what a team did last season means little. After all, injuries, game location, free agency and the draft can affect that greatly. But, to that point, part of why the Steelers’ schedule ranks so low is because of their two games with the Browns, who went 0-16 last season. The Browns probably aren’t going to go winless this season and might even notch six or seven wins if everything works out.
What we can figure is that the Steelers should sweep their division again. The gap between the Steelers and the rest of the division was four games last season and it didn’t appear to close dramatically in the offseason. The Steelers are still at least three games better than the rest of the AFC North, so they should go 6-0 in division games.
As for the other nine games on the schedule, they include five against teams that made the playoffs last season — Jacksonville and New Orleans on the road and New England, Atlanta and Carolina at home. The sites in those games are huge.
Let’s give the Steelers wins in their three games at home and losses on the road. Yes, this is the year Pittsburgh beats New England. Let’s face it, if not for Al Riveron, they beat the Patriots last season.
So that puts them at nine wins.
Remaining are games at Tampa Bay in Week 3, Denver in Week 12 and Oakland in Week 14, and home games against Kansas City in Week 2 and the Chargers in Week 13.
Jameis Winston will be serving the third game of his three-game suspension when the Steelers travel to Tampa, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 0-5 career record against Pittsburgh will be at quarterback. The Steelers should win that game.
Games at Denver and Oakland, however, could prove more difficult. The Steelers are 5-12-1 all-time at Denver and haven’t won there since 2009. Their road record against the Raiders is equally dismal. Pittsburgh has traveled to face the Raiders 15 times, winning just five of those contests, with none coming since 1995.
We can probably chalk those up as losses.
The Steelers have, however, owned the Chiefs in recent years regardless of the venue, so they should win that game and beat the Chargers, who are just 3-15 in their history in Pittsburgh. The Chargers did win the most recent meeting between the two teams at Heinz Field in 2012, but we’ll put down both of those games as wins.
Even if the Steelers do have a stumble, let’s say in the division or to New England, that should still put them at 11 wins.
So there’s the prediction. The Steelers will go 11-5 this season and win the AFC North by three games over Cincinnati.
As for the rest of the conference, here’s how it should break down.
New England will win the AFC East with a 12-4 record, with its losses coming at Jacksonville in Week 2 when it will be about 90 degrees in northern Florida, Green Bay at home, Minnesota at home and at Pittsburgh. With another stumble somewhere along the way, the Patriots’ game at Pittsburgh in Week 15 could once again decide home field advantage in the AFC.
But, as is usually the case, the AFC East won’t produce another playoff team.
In the South, Jacksonville will have a much tougher go of it in 2018 than it did last year. Houston will be much better with J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson both back, while Tennessee also has improved. And the division’s crossover games are against the AFC East, which should produce a couple of losses, as well.
Jacksonville should still win the division, but will be 10-6 this season, with the Texans taking a wildcard spot with a 9-7 record, edging the Titans, who also will be 9-7.
The Chargers should win the AFC West this season with the Broncos claiming the other wildcard spot. Kansas City takes a step back with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, while Oakland will figure out why Jon Gruden went 57-55 in seven seasons in Tampa Bay. He’s just not that good of a coach.
DEJAN KOVACEVIC
The Patriots will go 16-0, beat the Steelers by about 60 -- or on a generously overturned touchdown, but it'll bring about the same sentiment -- and they'll swoop through to a sixth Lombardi Trophy while Bill Belichick becomes the first active coach ever inducted into Canton because there couldn't possibly be a waiting period.
Oh, wait, it's still OK to consider the Steelers and other teams?
Hm. Well, I'm not ready for a full-blown season record prediction on the local side, as I'd prefer to see how a few particular facets pan out at Saint Vincent: Can Jon Bostic bump Tyler Matakevich from inside linebacker? How much will Morgan Burnett improve the tackling in the secondary? Will Le'Veon Bell ever show? And, of course, the biggest of all, who will stay healthy?
I'm not wild about a 13-3 repeat, primarily for some of the schedule reasons Dale cited above but also because there's no chance they'll run into as many backup quarterbacks as they did last season. But I'm fully on board with a third consecutive AFC North championship and a better-than-average shot at a bye.
As for the rest: No other AFC North team will finish above .500, so I've got the Texans with a healthy Deshaun Watson, the Jaguars with no more gosh-wow effect, the Chargers soaring offensively, and the Titans under new man Mike Vrabel.
Not that any of it will matter. Belichick, Tom Brady and Al Riveron can safely resume planning another parade route, and that strange segment of Steelers fans that's taken to bowing at the New England altar can rejoice in having been right all along.
(The rest can actually enjoy the ride!)
CHRIS CARTER
The closest team in the AFC North to the Steelers in 2017 was the Ravens, and their drafting Lamar Jackson and Hayden Hurst might be great in the long run but won't shake up the division right away. The Bengals will be the Bengals, as their additions of Billy Price and Jessie Bates are sound but also won’t have an impact soon with that core needing to be gutted. The Browns made the most improvements but still need to show that all the big names they signed/drafted can put together wins.
With all that uncertainty, the Steelers should come out on top and be in the hunt for a bye week again.
Though they are going through the NFC South, arguably the toughest NFL division, they should get favorable matchups with the Buccaneers -- Winston's suspension will still be in effect -- and Cam Newton's sagging Panthers. The Falcons and Saints are going to be the games that test both sides of the ball, as both have elite talent.
The AFC West power structure has been in flux for years now and could see another turn of who is on top in 2018. The Chargers are a tough group that showed their defense can lead the way in 2017. With the Chiefs relying on Patrick Mahomes in his second year, I see the Chargers as the team to beat there.
As usual, the playoff race will come down to whether the Patriots can take home-field advantage. I have a feeling it will come down to who wins the late-season showdown between the Steelers and the Patriots. The Steelers can only hope that they’ll have all their key weapons this time around, and that they’ll finish the job.
I say they go 12-4, taking a loss in the AFC West, NFC South, the AFC North and either the Patriots or Jaguars game.
MATT SUNDAY
Even with Antonio Brown back to full strength, Bell playing for his next team and potentially massive contract and Ben Roethlisberger putting them both in the end zone, I'm not confident the Steelers can repeat their regular season success from a year ago.
A lot has to go right for a team to win 12 games, and you have to play with video game precision to win more than that, so I don't see a 13 or 14-win season in the cards unless you're handling the Steelers in the AB-led Madden 19.
I heard on a podcast that AB's appearance on the video game will open the door for the Bengals. Nope. And I agree with Chris Carter about the future of the Ravens. Jackson is an unbelievable talent and has the potential of possessing his own Watson-like influence on a team. Just probably not yet.
And the Browns ... just ... nope, another nope — as much as I love Baker Mayfield.
Steelers win the North, and with only 11 wins in my eyes. Mahomes can flat out ball, and the Chiefs will still be formidable if the backfield can keep its knees intact. The Chargers are in it to win it after an impressive last season and "winning" the offseason. The Raiders should bounce back a bit and they're going to have a heck of a final game against the Steelers in Oakland.
Throw in the Falcons, Patriots and Jaguars, and I could see the Steelers fighting for a 10th win instead of an 11th. At the end of the day, though, the offense is too good, even when slugging with the other AFC juggernauts.
Regardless of the outcome, it'll be a fun one to photograph. That much I know as fact. And while I'm not ready to crown anyone in the AFC as champions other than the Patriots ... sorry Lunatics ... I wouldn't mind adding a Super Bowl's worth of photographs to the biography.