In his seven seasons at the major-league level, Chris Archer has experienced plenty and seen plenty more.
The 29-year-old is a self-described student of the game, constantly reading about new concepts, new theories and new ways to analyze a 150-year-old game, but one that has evolved rapidly in the last decade or so thanks to the use of video technology and sabermetrics.
He has come to his own conclusions regarding it and says without hesitation that, absolutely, there's a place for advanced metrics in the game.
To a point.
While some teams try to "play the game behind computers," the best ones, he believes, are the ones that can incorporate data with real-life experience. He points to the Astros and Dodgers, last year's World Series participants.
"They believe in clubhouse chemistry, they believe in the eye test, but they also believe in shifting and spin rate and everything else," Archer was telling DKPittsburghSports.com on Monday. "You can see teams like Boston and New York (Yankees), they're smart. They're very analytical but they know the human element weighs more than the other stuff."
The other stuff?
He was referring to the extraneous stuff, that some from the outside look at but, he says, mean little in a major-league clubhouse.
"It's baseball, man," Archer was saying. "There's too many variables that are uncontrollable. To say that this worked 51 percent of the times in the past, so it's going to continue like that? No, it's not like that. People try to predict this game and you can't predict it. There's definitely room for the metrics, but what about this metric?"
Then, Archer pointed a finger toward his head and then to his heart.
That, he says, perfectly explains the Pirates starting rotation, Trevor Williams, in particular. Well, that and old-fashioned guts.
There are pitchers with far better stuff, but few have more of what Archer pointed to.
"If he didn't have those, he wouldn't be here," Archer said.
About three hours later, Williams proved Archer correct -- and the number-crunchers wrong -- with yet another masterful performance in the Pirates' 5-1 win over the Reds at PNC Park.
Williams allowed zero runs on five hits in 6.2 innings while striking our four and walking none to improve to 12-9. Most impressively, he has now allowed just four runs over the last 54.2 innings, a span of nine starts. His 3.15 ERA ranks ninth in the National League but is tops in all of baseball since the All-Star break.
And he did it on a scorching-hot Labor Day afternoon Monday by pitching as he has throughout his remarkable run. Despite his lack of velocity, Williams pitches within himself and plays to his strengths: His fastball command and changing speeds.
He disguises his low-90s fastball with pinpoint location, giving the perception to batters that it appears as fast as 95 or as slow as 87.
It's really not that difficult to explain, says Clint Hurdle.
"It's just pitch ability, it's flat-out pitch execution," the manager said. "He's throwing his fastball where he wants to and changing speeds and it's really hard to hit. You look at the averages against, some old-school numbers, but look at batting average against and look at some other people in the league with bigger names and, supposedly, better stuff. Batting averages against are higher in some areas. He's getting it done, for me, the old-fashioned way. He's just flat-out pitching."
Indeed, opposing batters are hitting just .229 off Williams this season, to rank 11th in the NL, a number better than Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, among many other notables.
Not that recognition is what's motivating Williams, he says:
But, that could be changing. Take the word of Cincinnati catcher Tucker Barnhart.
“He just knows how to pitch," said Barnhart, who went 1-for-3 against Williams on Monday. "We were talking about it in the dugout. He knows how to pitch. He keeps guys off-balance. He’s able to command the fastball to both sides of the plate and doesn’t allow you to zone in on one side. He threw a helluva ballgame. He knows how to pitch and, to me, that's the biggest compliment I can give a pitcher -- knowing how to pitch.”
Williams threw 101 pitches, 67 of them for strikes, and his most difficult inning -- by far -- was the first.
Joey Votto reached base with one out, on an excuse-me, check-swing single. Then, NL leading hitter Scooter Gennett, who is attempting to become the first Red since Pete Rose in 1973 to win the batting title, doubled into the right-center gap -- on a ball that Gregory Polanco or Starling Marte could have had -- to put runners in scoring position. However, Williams then got Eugenio Suarez and his 31 home runs to strike out looking on a 3-2 pitch, a 91.7-mph four-seamer on the inside edge of the plate:
Scott Schebler then flew out to end the inning. That was the only time Williams or the Pirates were threatened.
"Kind of like the guy who can steal a base when you need a stolen base, he can get a punchout when he needs a punchout," Hurdle said. "That's played out through his streak as well. Forcing soft contact. Forcing it early and keeping hitters kind of in a rocking chair. He's playing it forward and back and he's playing it north and south. Very professional outing again."
Williams' performance is just the latest in a long line of them in recent weeks, even as the Pirates have seen their postseason hopes fade to black. Even after Monday's win, the Pirates sit 15 games back of first in the NL Central and 9.5 out of a wildcard spot.
Though his season has had its share of ups and downs, before his current run, Williams says he can build off it.
"It's a great learning year for me in how I'm going to attack next year and prepare for next year," he said. "It's a lot for me to learn: What was working earlier in the year, what wasn't working earlier in the year, and kind of take this information that we've had in the second half and move forward with it."
Archer, for one, can't wait to see how Williams progresses and what appears to be the makings of a fairly potent rotation in 2019 along with Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove and others.
"Hell, yeah, without a doubt," Archer was saying. "It's not even potential. It's here right now.
"It's an exciting time. A little unfortunate how the month of August went. I wasn't happy with my individual performance and our team didn't do great either, but our pitching staff is going to be special for some years to come."
1. Another knockout for Frazier.
With Josh Harrison sitting out again and Kevin Newman playing shortstop, Frazier got another start at second base, where he says he is feeling as comfortable and confident as he's ever been. He had one putout and eight assists on Monday.
But that's nothing compared to what he did at the plate. For just the second time in his career, Frazier enjoyed a four-hit night, going 4-for-4 with three RBIs.
In the first inning, he gave Williams all the support he needed by hitting Matt Harvey's 88-mph changeup into the seats in right to give the Pirates a 1-0 lead:
Frazier added a double in the third and a single in the sixth. An inning after Gregory Polanco's two-run homer, his 23rd, gave the Pirates some much-needed breathing room, Frazier came up again in the bottom of the seventh needing a triple to hit for the cycle.
That's only happened 23 times in team history, the last being John Jaso against the Cubs on Sept. 29, 2016. And you better well believe that Frazier's teammates let him know about it, when I asked:
Instead, Frazier had to "settle" for a two-run single that pushed the Pirates' lead to four.
That's OK, Frazier's now hitting .352 with 20 RBIs and 18 extra-base hits since being recalled from Indianapolis on July 25. He had been hitting .239 prior.
"I wasn't trying to do too much," Frazier said. "I was a little tired coming off that trip (from Atlanta) last night. Found some holes, found some barrels."
2. Where's the hustle in Marte?
Speaking of not trying to do too much, did you see Starling Marte's effort after his check-swing ground out in the first inning? Not pretty.
Granted, Harvey's pitch was in but so was the ball in the field of play. And this is what happened:
Marte broke out of the box before freezing and then jogging to first. The lack of effort brought a chorus of boos from the 13,843 who braved the 90-degree heat at PNC Park on Monday.
It was just 11 days ago that Hurdle benched Marte for a lack of hustle on the basepaths.
Sunday was just a brutal all-around game for the talented Dominican, who went 0-for-4, including grounding into a double play in the third.
3. Shirt off your back day?
Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto is not only a future Hall of Famer, but also one of the game's more quirky characters.
Williams, who reached on a clean single in the third inning, said talking to Votto at first base was the "most exciting" thing he did Monday. The Pirates starter refused to divulge the nature of that conversation, but that wasn't the most exciting thing for the Reds star.
After the fourth inning, Votto exchanged one of his gray road jerseys -- not the one he was wearing -- for a T-shirt that a Reds fan who had been sitting in the seats along the first base side was wearing.
The T-shirt, which read "Votto for President," apparently, caught his attention. The shirts were part of a Nike promotion in 2012 and Votto forgot to keep one for himself. So, the Canadian citizen who could never actually run for office brokered a deal with the fan and claimed it during the middle of Sunday's game.
When Joey Votto asks for your shirt, just go with it.#RedsCountry pic.twitter.com/SAaEpIJfAo
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 3, 2018
“I was trying to find it for a while and I was excited to see if I could trade a jersey for a shirt and he obliged,” Votto said. “He was willing to take his shirt off in the middle of the stands and thanks to him.”