Place an ear to the ground and you can hear the drumbeat already.
The NFL's collective bargaining agreement doesn't expire until after the 2020 season, but lines are being drawn in the sand now. And this one might be bigger than most of its predecessors.
"I totally plan on a lockout probably happening," Cam Heyward told DKPittsburghSports.com.
The last CBA negotiation resulted in an 18-week, four-day lockout in 2011. Unlike the 1982 and 1987 players’ strikes, the 2011 work stoppage did not affect regular-season play. But if the current drumbeat keeps building, that could change in 2020. The current agreement, one experts agree heavily favors the league and owners, has left plenty of hard feelings among the union since it was ratified July 25, 2011. To this day, the Steelers' veteran players openly boast of being the only team to not sign it.
At the time, Roger Goodell's disciplinary authority was the Steelers' major point of contention. Now, they say, it's much more.
"It's going to be huge," said Ramon Foster, the Steeler' players rep to the NFLPA. "There's a lot at stake. A lot of TV rights at stake, a lot of contracts at stake, guaranteed contracts, salary cap, franchise tag stuff, transition tag, fifth-year option things that are going to come up that guys are now open up to and it's going to be very significant."
Foster didn't sound as pessimistic as Heyward.
"We could be in for the long haul as far as this potential lockout," he said. "I'm not saying a lockout, but potential."
I spoke with a handful of other veterans, including Joe Haden and Darrius Heyward-Bey, and one issue that came up was the lack of guaranteed contracts. Unlike Major League Baseball, the NHL or NBA, the NFL is the only league that can cut a player without future pay.
Think about that for a moment: In the most physically demanding league, where the average career is just over three years, the threat of catastrophic injury is only a play away, and the permanent after-effects of the game are still being studied, not all players will see all of their money.
And there's this: The NFL is also far and away America's most lucrative sports league. Twenty-nine of the league's 32 teams are among the top 50 of the world's most valuable sports franchises, according to Forbes. According to financial documents revealed by the Packers, the NFL's only publicly traded team, each team received a check for $255 million last year, their portion of a national revenue-sharing pool that topped $8.1 billion. And that's despite Colin Kaepernick, concerns about head injuries and high-profile arrests of star players.
The NFLPA has made overtures toward guaranteed contracts dating back to the 1970s but has never gotten anywhere with it, instead picking and choosing its fights on low-hanging fruit such as pensions and work-related safety. Keep in mind, the glacial NFL didn't agree to free agency until 1993 -- in exchange for the salary cap -- about 20 years after every other league.
Though more guaranteed money is being shelled out -- it's about two-thirds now after being as low as 25 percent at the turn of the new century -- it's largely based on a star system. This summer, Minnesota gave free agent Kirk Cousins a three-year, $84 million deal that is fully guaranteed, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history -- at the time -- and the first to sign a multi-year, fully guaranteed deal. You can bet every top-tier free agent QB to come will demand similar terms.
Kirk Cousins is a hero for all the young players that will follow after him. Now we need more players to bet on themselves until fully guaranteed contracts are the norm and not the exception.
— Doug Baldwin Jr (@DougBaldwinJr) March 13, 2018
A left guard such as, say, Foster simply won't have that kind of leverage when the 32-year-old becomes a free agent next March.
"It's amazing for the league but, the thing is, it's only for a certain amount of guys," Foster said of the Cousins contract. "Everybody isn't that high-bred or that guaranteed money only goes to a certain group of guys, for the most part and after that, there's a middle class. If there's a way to distribute that or find a way to break down that amongst the camp of guys, then that would be better."
Cousins' former Michigan State teammate, Le'Veon Bell, currently holding out after refusing to sign his franchise tag offer with the Steelers, is looking for more guaranteed money on his next contract, wherever that is. As a tagged player, Bell's money is guaranteed for this year -- if he ever shows -- but guaranteed money has been the deal-breaker in getting a long-term extension done in Pittsburgh each of the past two summers.
Bell will be looking to match or exceed the four-year, $60 million contract, $45 million of it guaranteed, that Todd Gurley received from the Rams in August. That is the largest guaranteed amount for a running back.
Bell's case is a prime example of why teams, and not just the Steelers, are reticent to give guaranteed money to just anyone. Because of his injury history and the position he plays, Bell could be one play away from being done.
And then there's basic math.
"There are 53 players on an active roster, and with that there has to be some leeway," said Heyward.
Heyward-Bey says there is an appetite among the players to finally get guaranteed contracts done but it will require the union -- QBs and receivers, too -- to present a unified front. The NFLPA has historically been a toothless giant, the weakest in major pro sports. It has seen players cross picket lines in the 1980s and crumble in 2011. DeMaurice Smith is simply not Marvin Miller, the hardline union boss who was able to extract concessions from MLB, making the MLBPA the strongest union in the country at a time when organized labor has ceded power to big business.
"I know some guys want it, I think most guys want it," Heyward-Bey said of guaranteed contracts. "Some guys are in a position to get it ... quarterbacks, since they are getting it, they're not going to say too much. If we can come together that's the key: Coming together."
Haden isn't an offensive skill position player, but he's been a star cornerback in the league for nine seasons and is a two-time Pro Bowl selection. He says it's a battle worth fighting.
"I think the thing is, that when you start signing these five-year contacts, say worth $50 million and you've got about, say, 25 guaranteed, you're looking at that like you're probably only going to get the guaranteed money in the first three," Haden said. "So instead of doing five (year) for 50 (million), do a 3-for-30 or 3-for-25, something where no matter what, you're going to get the contract. I think the back-end money is just fluff. People would rather do shorter-term deals knowing you're going to get the whole contract."
That's what Haden did when he signed with the Steelers after his release from Cleveland last year. He signed a three-year, $27-million deal.
Another point of contention is the fifth-year option, a clause that allows teams to control their first-round picks a year beyond their first contracts. It's an issue near and dear to Heyward. In 2014, the Steelers picked up their option on the 31st overall pick in 2011, preventing him from reaching free agency sooner.
"If they outplay their contract, that shouldn't be used as a tool against them when you have other guys who get drafted lower but hit free agency earlier," Heyward said.
And then, of course, there is the franchise tag, another tool used to prevent a designated player from reaching free agency. In 2016, Von Miller refused to play on the tag before Denver finally relented. In 2017, Bell played under it but has yet to do so this season.
"It gives teams the flexibility, but it does prevent guys from really capitalizing on what they can do and setting themselves up long term," Heyward said.
Whether the NFLPA can win any concessions, let alone earn guaranteed contracts for all, will depend on all 2,000-plus members standing their ground even after game checks dry up. That's never happened with the NFLPA.
"Everybody in life, not just football, people think about themselves, that's the human spirit, that's (messed) up," said Heyward-Bey. "If guys can put that to the side, I don't know. I just think about the guys who play after me. It's not much you can do for me. I'm toward the end, but hopefully we can find a way to make guys get the money that they are worth."
Minimally, there's one thing DHB says he'd like to see come out of the next CBA: Better seats for his family on the road.
"I know that's little, but my mom cares," he said. "I don't need them up in the nosebleeds where they can't even see their kid play."
MORE STEELERS
• Danny Smith had a little extra help working with him this week. Josh Yoder, who worked with the Steelers during training camp and in the preseason, was in Tampa on Sunday night and came back with the team this week to work on special teams. Yoder, 40, was a tight end for nine seasons in the NFL while excelling on special teams. He played on Tampa Bay's 2002 championship team, for which Mike Tomlin served as a defensive backs coach. He finished his career in Washington, where Smith was the Redskins' special teams coordinator. The Steelers' special teams have been a disaster through the first three weeks, so a little help couldn't hurt. "Bit of everything," Jordan Berry said of Yoder's role. "He did a lot of the coverage stuff when he was playing so he's good for all those guys. giving those guys bits of advice here and there. An extra set of eyes, helping us (specialists) out as well." -- Bradford
• There are plenty of potential snags in a possible trade with any team for Bell, which the Steelers are now reportedly entertaining. Here's one that hasn't been reported. Any team that would trade for Bell would not only not be permitted to negotiate a new deal with him until end of the season, it also likely wouldn't have the franchise tag available. Why? To be traded, Bell would have to report to the Steelers and sign his deal, thus kicking in the remainder of his $14.54 million salary for this season -- which currently sits at $11.97 million and will be $11.12 million after Sunday. But the tricky thing is that a team that trades for him would have all of the franchise tag rules come with him, as well. So, Bell would report this year and if that team wanted to protect itself and have time to negotiate a new deal by placing the franchise tag on him again, it would have to pay him the average salary of the top 5 players in the NFL, upwards of $25 million in 2019. That's true even though that team hasn't used the tag on him before. And it's why anyone thinking the Steelers would get a high draft choice -- or two -- for Bell is simply not being realistic. Nobody is going to give up a first-round pick or picks for a player it can't sign until after the season and has no way to keep from hitting free agency. That's especially true given the nature of the Steelers' negotiations with Bell, which have been contentious to say the least. He could just be a rental player for a team for the remainder of the season, which isn't going to garner a ton of interest. -- Dale Lolley at Rooney Complex
• So why would the Steelers have an interest in moving Bell now -- or at least letting everyone know they'd be willing to do so? They're at the point now where they don't know how he'll fit back into their locker room. A lot will depend on the health of James Conner. If Conner, who currently leads the AFC in rushing with 213 yards, is healthy and still putting up decent numbers, there won't be a huge need for Bell. But let's say Conner slows down or gets hurt. In that case, you can bet Bell would be welcomed back. This team wants to win now and if Bell can help do that, all would be forgiven -- despite some of the harsh words that have been said. -- Lolley
• The Artie Burns benching came, at least in part, because the Steelers knew the Buccaneers like to go deep. And Burns is a corner who just seems to lose focus on the field at times. As one of his teammates told me Thursday, Burns has the talent, but for whatever reason, his mind seems to drift at times. This benching, however, doesn't mean the Steelers are going to give up on Burns or that he's a bust. Others, including Mel Blount and Ike Taylor, have been benched in the past and have come back to become solid starters -- or in the case of Blount a Pro Football Hall of Fame member. Remember, Burns is just 23 years old. And as one person in the organization told me, he's got a lot on his plate for a young man, taking care of his own family, which includes his wife and child, and younger brothers since his mom died and his father went to prison. -- Lolley
PIRATES
• Corey Dickerson has no interest in leaving the Pirates. The 29-year-old left fielder is arbitration-eligible this offseason and will become a free agent in the winter of 2019. He was being shopped before the non-waiver trade deadline and was a catalyst in the team's unprecedented success in July. He loves the freedom given to him by Clint Hurdle and Kimera Bartee, and credited both with his rejuvenation this summer. It's unclear if the Pirates intend to offer him a long-term extension, but he wants to be here long-term. -- Lance Lysowski in Chicago
• If Josh Harrison is experiencing any nostalgia in his final days with the Pirates, he's not showing it. He shrugged off my question about his impact on the clubhouse, specifically on the leadership of the young rotation. Harrison wants to enjoy what will be his final days with the team and is more concerned about moving his family back to their home near Cincinnati. -- Lysowski
• Other pitchers had little doubt that reliever Edgar Santana would require surgery after suffering a tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow this month. Santana had a golf ball-sized bruise on the elbow the day after he was removed because of tightness. -- Lysowski
• The Pirates will be active in searching for a free-agent reliever this offseason now that Santana is no longer an option for 2019. They were unlikely to do so beforehand since they had Santana, Richard Rodriguez, Keone Kela, Kyle Crick and Felipe Vazquez. There's little confidence in internal options for middle relief, though. Michael Feliz, Steven Brault and Dovydas Neverauskas have all struggled. -- Lysowski
PENGUINS
• There's no greater gap between external and internal perceptions of any player on the roster than with Dominik Simon. The fan base, per the best of my ability to gauge, has little use for the guy. They see someone who gets chances but does little with them. They've been put off by his occasional placement on the top line, and that's that. On the inside, though, the coaches and Simon's teammates rave about how strong he is on the puck, how he so often makes the very quick, very smart play, how he's responsible in all zones and, above all, how he supports the attack. I'll name names here, too: Sidney Crosby feels this way very strongly. Kris Letang. Matt Murray. Derick Brassard told me he's one of the most effective linemates he's ever had. Probably worth at least listening to these gentlemen and watching a little more closely. -- Dejan Kovacevic
• Are you ready to see the Penguins' much-anticipated third jersey? Well, you're going to have to wait. I was told Wednesday the Penguins do indeed plan to unveil a new sweater, but it won't be until after the season has started. The reasoning? I was told fans do not like to see something they can not immediately buy. In other words, the new swag isn't in stock, yet. I did ask if it was going to be blue. I didn't get a yes or no. That secret, apparently, is under lock and key. Remember, the Penguins also will have new threads for the Stadium Series outdoor game at Lincoln Financial Field Feb. 23 in Philadelphia -- Cody Tucker
• All camps are scripted, to an extent, across all sports. Management always enters with a projected roster and almost always exits with the same. This camp for the Penguins has gone very much according to script, but there have been two exceptions, from what I've been told: 1. Juuso Riikola's even better than they thought. Believe it or not, evaluators don't like admitting such stuff, because it's also a scouting miss in its own way. But there it is; 2. Jimmy Hayes showing up to camp out of shape took a player who spent all of last season with the Devils and relegated him to early waivers. -- DK
• One of the big questions surrounding the first two weeks of camp is -- what are we going to do with this Riikola guy? Sure, he has been great. The kid can skate, dish out hits and has a rocket of a shot from the blue line. He also has shown to have a very high hockey IQ, as you've seen this preseason. Certainly the organization can't send this guy to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, right? I'm told yes it can, and probably will. Mike Sullivan will be the first person to tell you he is impressed with Riikola, but that's not enough of a reason for him to unseat anyone, yet. If the team needed an instant fix on defense, Riikola would make the roster. But, I was told that the top six are safe, and Chad Ruhwedel, who is in the last year of his contract, is a seventh defenseman the organization is very comfortable with. I asked why not Riikola over Ruhwedel, and the answer was pretty simple -- the Penguins want Riikola to play, and play, and play some more. He is still getting used to the North American game and the smaller NHL rinks. It wouldn't do anyone any good if he was sitting in the press box watching night in and night out. -- Tucker
PITT
• With the known challenge of UCF’s offense and the expected challenge of temperatures around 90 in Orlando, Fla., this weekend, Pitt has done everything in its power to simulate what it will face Saturday. The Panthers practiced indoors this week, which allowed them to pump noise into the building to simulate the expected crowd at Spectrum Stadium. And the Rooney Complex’s indoor field has been noticeably warmer during this cool, rainy week, although that might or might not have been deliberate. Pitt also ran two full scout teams of offense at the defense; after the first group ran a play, they went back to their own huddle while the second group quickly lined up with the next play. The goal? Have the next play ready to go in 12 seconds. — Matt Grubba
• Kenny Pickett revealed he and his offensive line usually go out to dinner on Wednesday, and said this week they were headed to Mad Mex. So, when I passed Pickett in the Rooney Complex hall Thursday, I couldn’t help but ask if any of his linemen took on the Thanksgiving-inspired Gobblerito, Mad Mex’s massive, 1,500-calorie, turkey-and-stuffing-filled creation that returned to menus last week. But according to Pickett, Pitt’s team nutritionist can rest easy: “They kept it light,” he said. — Grubba