Lolley's Kickoff: Matchups, data, staff picks, more taken at Heinz Field (Steelers)

Heinz Field at night. - DEJAN KOVACEVIC / DKPS

The Steelers and Ravens play twice each year. They've also had one extra meeting in a season four times since the Ravens moved from Cleveland in 1996. And often, those games got heated, creating one of the best rivalries in the NFL. From 2001 through 2010, it was must-see TV.

Now? Perhaps not so much.

From 2013 through 2015, the Ravens won five of the seven meetings between the two teams. But the Steelers have won the past three, including by 39-38 last December, the highest-scoring game in series history.

A series once dominated by defensive stars -- Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs on Baltimore's side, and Joey Porter, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison, among othersfor the Steelers -- has been all about the offenses of late. It just doesn't lend itself to being the physical nasty rivalry it once was.

"The rules have changed," David DeCastro told me. "The game isn't played the way it was when this rivalry was at its height."

That's certainly been the case in recent years. The winner of the series in the 2000s averaged 23.1 points per game. In this decade, that has risen to 29.9 points per game since the 2014 season.

That does not mean, however, the defensive players don't still enjoy it.

"I'm really looking forward to it," Jon Bostic told me. "I watched these games when I was in high school and college. They were always great matchups."

The Steelers aren't overly concerned about the rivalry as much as just getting another win. After starting 0-1-1, they can get the ship righted with another win this week following their 30-27 victory in Tampa Bay this past Monday night.

"We've got to start putting some wins together," DeCastro said. "We got back on the right track last week. Now, we've got to build on that."

DeCastro expects to return after missing the past two games with a broken hand. Marcus Gilbert will be back, as well, after sitting out Monday with a hamstring injury. That should help give Ben Roethlisberger time to throw, even with Suggs still roaming the field. The two have a length history, with Suggs recording 20 career sacks against the Steelers, including 17 of Roethlisberger. That's the most sacks for any player against Roethlisberger.

"I know we always joke about the Ravens, but I think there is a mutual respect and I don’t think you ever want to hurt somebody," Roethlisberger said.

That doesn't sound all that heated. But both teams also know what's on the line. A loss by the Steelers would put them in a 1-2-1 hole with two of the games they didn't win having come in AFC North games — the Steelers tied Cleveland in Week 1.

"It's time to put up or shut up," Cameron Heyward said.

The Ravens' lone loss this season came in Week 2 against Cincinnati. It's a big game just four weeks into the season.

The rivalry might not be as heated as it once was, but it's still an important game.

“We’re going to play the Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Pittsburgh, and we know what that means,” said Ravens coach John Harbaugh. “We’re going to get their best shot. There’s no team that rallies for big games more than they do. They come up big for the big games, and playing the Ravens is a big game, and I’m sure the Steelers will play their best on Sunday night, like they always do against us.”

THE ESSENTIALS

• WhoSteelers (1-1-1) vs. Ravens (2-1)

• When: 8:22 p.m.

• WhereHeinz Field

• TV: WPXI, NBC (national)

• Satellite: SiriusXM channel 225 (Internet 826)

• Lots open: 3:20 p.m.

• Will call open: 6:20 p.m.

• Gates open: 6:20 p.m.

• BoxscoreNFL Game Center

 Media notes: Steelers | Ravens

• Odds: MyBookie.AG

THE INJURY REPORT

Steelers: S Morgan Burnett (groin, doubtful), DB Mike Hilton (elbow, doubtful)

Ravens: CB Anthony Averett (hamstring, out), DT Willie Henry (abdomen, out), CB Brandon Carr (knee, questionable), T Ronnie Stanley (foot, questionable), LB Terrell Suggs (knee, questionable), TE Hayden Hurst (foot, questionable), DB/LB Anthony Levine (hamstring, questionable), LB CJ Mosley (knee, questionable), DT Michael Pierce (foot, questionable)

THE KEY VARIABLE

Baltimore's offense has largely been reliant on the leg of Justin Tucker in recent seasons. Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history with a 90 percent success rate on field goals, is not only accurate, he's also made 36 of 50 career field goals from 50 yards and beyond. That includes a career-long make from a ridiculous 61 yards, which means he kicked the ball from his own 49.

But things have changed a little offensively for the Ravens. After converting 30 of 52 red zone trips into touchdowns in 2017, the Ravens are 12 for 12 this season. That's the most consecutive successful attempts to start a season in NFL history.

"They have a veteran quarterback who is very accurate and their weapons are making plays for him down there," said Steelers cornerback Coty Sensabaugh.

Joe Flacco, the veteran quarterback, is 13 of 18 for 90 yards and five touchdown passes inside the 20 this season. A year ago, He was 39 of 75 for 175 yards and 13 touchdowns with no interceptions.

"Well, we score touchdowns. That’s the idea," Harbaugh said when I asked him about the secret to his team's red zone success. "What’s happened? I think we’ve made plays. We’ve been able to run the ball and show balance and Joe’s made some throws and extended some plays. We’ve made some catches."

The Steelers are 20th in red zone defense, allowing eight touchdowns in 12 trips this season. They ranked 28th in that statistic a year ago.

And that is the defensive statistic with which the Steelers are most concerned. Yes, they've given up some yards this season, but that's going to happen in today's NFL. They'd like to be better at stopping teams once they get inside the 20.

"Yards can be misleading," Joe Haden told me. "I think the thing we need to work on is in the red zone, not giving up touchdowns. In the middle of the field, they might get those chunks and get down there, but when we get down to the red zone, we have to hold them to field goals instead of touchdowns. I think that’s the biggest thing we’ve got to work on. The yards can trick you as opposed to what’s really going on. We had multiple picks, got our hands on a lot of passes (last week against Tampa Bay). Sometimes, when they’re trying to get back into the game, you’ve got to bend but don’t break."

HISTORY LESSON

When the Browns moved to Baltimore in 1996, they took none of the team records with them. It was as if they were an expansion franchise. But just as they had a rivalry with the Browns before the move -- the two teams met in the postseason in 1994 -- it didn't take all that long for the Steelers-Ravens series to heat up.

In fact, the two teams split their home-and-home series in 1996, with each team winning by identical 31-17 scores on their home fields. The Steelers then went on to win eight of the next 11 meetings -- including a Divisional Playoff game -- before the old AFC Central Division was split up in 2002.

The AFC North was created and things really heated up.

From 2002-2007, the Steelers and Ravens split their 12 games, with the Ravens winning the division title in 2003 and 2006 and the Steelers capturing it in 2002, 2004 and 2007.

But the most heated year of the rivalry just might have come in 2008, Harbaugh's first season with Baltimore. The Steelers and Ravens met three times that season, with the Steelers winning all three, including in the AFC Championship.

The Steelers won the first meeting, 23-20, on a 46-yard Jeff Reed overtime field goal at Heinz Field. The game was dominated by the defenses, with the Steelers gaining just 236 yards and the Ravens picking up 243.

The game was memorable for Ray Lewis fracturing the shoulder of Steelers rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall and then ticking the Steelers off by celebrating the injury.

If that game was decided by a razor-thin margin, the next was even closer. The Ravens clung to a 9-3 lead early in the fourth quarter when the Steelers got a 30-yard field goal from Reed with just over nine minutes remaining.

Then, with the Ravens driving late in the game, Lawrence Timmons sacked Flacco and forced a fumble. The Ravens recovered but lost 15 yards on the play, moving them back to the Pittsburgh 42 and out of field goal range with 3:42 remaining.

Despite a Sam Koch punt to the 8, Roethlisberger drove the Steelers the length of the field, scoring on a disputed 4-yard catch by Santonio Holmes that originally had Holmes down at the 1, but was overturned by the relay assistant with 43 seconds remaining.

Reed was called for a personal foul on the PAT -- that's how heated this series was, kickers were drawing personal fouls -- and Baltimore took possession following a kickoff from deep in Pittsburgh territory at its own 47.

But William Gay intercepted Flacco in the end zone and the Steelers held on to win.

The final meeting that season came in the AFC Championship at Heinz Field. The Steelers led, 16-14, late in the game when Troy Polamalu intercepted Flacco to seal the game in perhaps one of his most iconic plays.

THE MAIN MATCHUP

Jimmy Smith won't play in this game for the Ravens. He'll be serving the last game of a four-game suspension he received from the NFL in the offseason for a "pattern of improper conduct" toward his girlfriend.

That's significant because Smith has missed three games against the Steelers in his previous seven seasons, and the results haven't been pretty for the Ravens.

Smith has been Baltimore's top cornerback for several seasons and when he missed a 2014 start against the Steelers, Roethlisberger completed 25 of 37 passes for 340 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in a 43-23 win.

He missed another meeting in 2016. Roethlisberger was 24 of 33 for 279 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in a 31-27 win.

Finally, Smith was out for a December meeting with the Steelers last season. Roethlisberger went 44 of 66 for 506 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

All told, Roethlisberger has averaged 375 yards passing with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions when Smith doesn't play. That's a passer rating of 131.5 with a completion percentage of 80.2.

"I respect Big Ben," said Baltimore defensive tackle Brandon Williams. "Obviously, he's been there forever, and the things he's done there with everyone around him, you have to respect him. You have to respect their offense, as well."

No kidding.

Roethlisberger's numbers in primetime are even better. He's got a 21-3 record in those games, throwing for 6,830 yards with 55 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Obviously, when Roethlisberger has a big game, typically, so does Antonio Brown.

Smith has traditionally shadowed Brown and done a good job against him, using his 6-foot-2, 210-pound frame to frustrate Brown. While Brown has 89 receptions for 1,087 yards and three touchdowns in 15 career games against the Ravens, those numbers are actually somewhat pedestrian for him.

In the three games in which he's faced the Ravens with Roethlisberger at quarterback and Smith out of the lineup, Brown has put up otherworldly numbers, even for him -- 32 receptions for 453 yards and two touchdowns.

Brown is off to a slow start this season with 24 catches for 210 yards and two touchdowns. But he could get back on track very quickly in this one with Smith sitting, even if he doesn't want to hear that.

“I haven’t really studied numbers or who I go against,” he said. “My job is to be the best player I can be no matter who I am going against.”

THE QUOTES

• “We know we’re playing good teams but we think we’re a good team and we have to show it.” -- Steelers defensive end Heyward on the Ravens

• “He is an explosive, physical, downhill runner. He can catch the ball out of the backfield. They look for him in the passing game when things aren’t open. He likes to be the outlet. He is up and coming.” -- Ravens safety Eric Weddle on James Conner

• "I think we can make plays on the ball. I think Kansas City was an off game. We had holes in our windows, in our zones. But I think that we’re a team that can be one that gets its hands on a lot of passes, strip the ball, make a lot of plays. I think we’re more of the team that we had last week." -- Haden on the team's defense

THE TEN DATA POINTS

Vance McDonald has at least four receptions and 50 yards in four of the past five games he's played with Roethlisberger.

• The Ravens have run an average of 75 plays per game, tops in the NFL. The Steelers are third at 72.3.

• Roethlisberger has 5,171 yards passing and 34 touchdown passes in 21 career games against the Ravens, the most by any opponent against Baltimore.

• Roethlisberger has posted a passer rating of 99.0 or greater in each of his past three home meetings against Baltimore.

• Haden has five interceptions in 13 career games against the Ravens. All came while he was a member of the Cleveland Browns.

Jesse James had a career-high 10 receptions in the past meeting between these two teams Dec. 10 of last year, gaining 97 yards.

• This game will mark the 16th meeting in primetime between the Steelers and Ravens. The Steelers lead, 8-7, in those meetings, including a 6-3 record in Pittsburgh.

• The Steelers have won nine consecutive Sunday night games and are 18-8 under Tomlin in primetime Sunday games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster leads the AFC with 356 yards from scrimmage, while Conner is second with 352.

• Flacco is 5-8 at Heinz Field and 10-12 overall against the Steelers with 26 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

THE FANTASY FREE PLAY

The 2017 season was an interesting one for Baltimore running back Alex Collins. He was released by the running back-starved Seattle Seahawks at the end of training camp and picked up by the Baltimore Ravens. But he eventually was named the team's starting running back. In two games against the Steelers last season, he had 27 carries for 202 yards and a touchdown, also catching two passes for another 46. Collins is off to a slow start this season with just 116 yards on 34 carries. But 18 of those rushing attempts came last week in a win over Denver. With Baltimore's receivers getting a lot of attention from the Steelers, he could find some running lanes against the Steelers. Collins' fantasy owners might be a little put-off by his slow start, but expect at least 75 total yards in this game from the running back as the Ravens try to keep the Steelers' high-powered offense on the sideline.

THE STAFF PICKS

Our football coverage team offers predictions:

Dale Lolley: Baltimore's offense is better than it has been, but the defense isn't as good, especially without Smith, the Ravens' top corner. The Ravens are currently the league's top defense -- in terms of yards allowed -- mostly because they opened the season at home against Buffalo and Nathan Peterman. Roethlisberger should have his way with the Ravens defense. These teams have played three times since Smith joined the Ravens and Roethlisberger has averaged 375 yards per game with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. Steelers 31-23

Chris Bradford: If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'm taking the over. The Steelers and Ravens are going to put up a lot more than 50 points. This rivalry used to be defined by physical defenses and low-scoring games, but the times have changed. This should be another last-possession game, but even with all their troubles on the defensive side of the ball and on special teams, it's hard to see the Steelers losing to Baltimore at home. The Steelers are 9-0 in their last nine on Sunday Night Football and 7-0 at home. Roethlisberger is 21-3 at home on SNF. It all adds up to victory. Steelers 35, Ravens 33

Christopher Carter: Baltimore is beat up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Jimmy Smith is already not playing and with Brandon CarrTerrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley all listed as questionable, a Ravens' defense that is still figuring things out might be very shorthanded. But the 2018 resurgence of Joe Flacco means their offense stands a chance to torch a Steelers defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed and 26th in passing yards allowed. Alex Collins was a problem the last time these two met at Heinz Field, but I see the Steelers' gap integrity being better with their current run defense. This will be another shootout, and the team with better offensive weapons will pull it out. Look for a big game from Antonio BrownSteelers 38, Ravens 31

Matt Sunday: I am a betting man and would take Bradford's advice on the 'over' any day. I'm also 0-3 with my season predictions, so ... I'm not going to be betting until I get that disastrous record under control. The Steelers are getting gashed in every way possible on defense, but the 122.3 rushings yards against per game is going to be a serious issue. Collins is going to be a problem, as Carter said, with a chance of being a big problem. If the Steelers can contain Collins and Javorius Allen, though, they should be able to move the ball enough to win, despite Baltimore's 'league best' status on the defensive side. Steelers 27, Ravens 24

Dejan Kovacevic: Suggesting that this one will be on the Steelers' offense is akin to suggesting Heinz Field is really yellow. Almost all of the Steelers' outcomes will be on the offense. But that's fine. Because, in addition to the Ravens' terrific front being banged up and Smith out, Roethlisberger and his receivers began to finally find real rhythm Monday night in Tampa. Crossing routes, tight patterns, multiple choices ... it's all pointing to Brown maybe finally getting a bit of breathing room and producing his first AB-level performance of 2018. In that event, nothing else would matter. Steelers 34, Ravens 19

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