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Jameson Taillon has endured more than his share of turmoil since the Pirates drafted him second overall in the 2010 MLB Draft. Tommy John and hernia surgeries. A line drive to the skull. Cancer. The weight of expectation that comes with being the guy drafted right after Bryce Harper and before Manny Machado. And yet, as Taillon's 2018 season concludes, he has triumphed. Finally, he has emerged as the kind of pitcher that Neal Huntington envisioned. Dominant. Durable. In short, an ace.
And he has accomplished that in large part by developing a new out pitch that has enhanced his already impressive arsenal.
Dating back to his high school days in Texas, Taillon was known for his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and a hammer curveball, which he complemented with a passable changeup. In 2018, however, Taillon broadened his horizons and made life much harder for opposing batters. He picked up a sinister, high-speed slider that he throws at an average of just under 90 mph. That slider, which Taillon threw 18 percent of the time, quickly became one of the league's best.
Fangraphs features a stat called Runs/100, which measures the value of a particular pitch compared to the league average per 100 times that a player throws it. A positive Runs/100 value means that a pitcher has an above-average offering, and a negative number means that a pitch is worse than the MLB average. Taillon's slider had a +1.6 Runs/100 value, which ranked 14th among all qualified MLB starting pitchers and surpassed the totals posted by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, among many others.
Taillon's new weapon made him less predictable, as did another alteration that he made in 2018: He changed how he used his fastball. Taillon threw more four-seam fastballs this season (34 percent of total pitches) than in 2017 (29.7 percent), and fewer two-seamers (21.7 percent, down from 34.4 percent in 2017). He enjoyed more success with both the four-seamer (+0.3 Runs/100 in 2018, -0.3 in 2017) and two-seamer (+1.5 Runs/100, -0.1 in 2017).
Without any of the health scares that have shortened previous seasons, Taillon pitched a career-high 191 innings in 2018. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total, which measures the value of his pitching compared to that of the kind of hurler who could easily be found on the waiver wire, ranks in the top 20 among all MLB starting pitchers this season. In fact, Taillon turned in one of the best performances that the pitching-starved Pirates have seen over the past quarter-century:
Entering 2019, the Pirates have to feel optimistic about the starting rotation. Chris Archer has looked dominant in recent outings. Trevor Williams won't keep channeling Bob Gibson, but he and Joe Musgrove are solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation arms. You can do worse than Ivan Nova at the back end, though they might try to move his salary. Top prospect Mitch Keller, while needing additional polish, is on the horizon. And leading them all is Taillon, who won't be arbitration-eligible until 2020 and can't hit free agency until 2023. He's not Harper or Machado, both of whom might land free agent deals worth more than $300 million apiece this winter. But he's darned good and inexpensive for the the next couple of seasons. If the Pirates want to make a bold move of their own, they'd try their hardest to lock up Taillon long-term and avoid the kind of departure the club just experienced with Cole.
MORE PIRATES
• Newman! Kevin Newman's audition for the Pirates' 2019 starting shortstop job hasn't gone according to plan. Newman, the team's first-round pick in the 2015 draft, turned in a quality season at Triple-A Indianapolis (a .302 average/.350 on-base percentage/.407 slugging percentage), but MLB pitchers have taken him to the woodshed. His On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS), once adjusted for park and league factors, is 67 percent worse than the MLB average. It's not time to freak out and declare him a bust — not after a mere 100 or so plate appearances — but Newman clearly has some work to do at the plate. He's swinging at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (32 percent) than the average big league hitter (30.8 percent), while also taking fewer hacks at more hittable pitches thrown within the zone (64.5 percent swing rate, compared to the 67.3 percent MLB average). When he does make contact, it's not exactly scorching (Newman's average exit velocity on pitches put in play is 83.6 mph, below the 87.3 mph MLB average).
• Moran still in the plan? At the time of the Gerrit Cole trade, Colin Moran was arguably the centerpiece. In 2017, Moran finally re-discovered the power stroke that made him the sixth overall pick in the 2013 draft. He posted a .901 OPS at Triple-A in the Astros' system while swatting 18 home runs. Now, as the 2018 season comes to an end, it's possible that he won't have much of a role with the Pirates in the years to come. Moran was underwhelming at the plate, with a league and park-adjusted OPS that was just 5 percent above the league average. That might be palatable if he created value with his glove or his legs, but that's definitely not the case. Moran was eight runs worse defensively than an average MLB third baseman, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved metric, and he runs the bases like he's wearing cinder blocks instead of cleats (he was four runs worse than average on the bases). Combine average offense and lousy defense and base running, and you get a player who was worth just 0.7 WAR. With Pirates Minor League Player of the Year Ke'Bryan Hayes, Kevin Kramer, Jose Osuna, Pablo Reyes and maybe even Jung Ho Kang (if the team picks up his option or tries to bring him back at a reduced rate) providing other options at third base, Moran's long-term future is cloudy.
STEELERS
• Steelers abandon the running game...again: The Steelers' offense stalled out against Baltimore, due in large part to Pittsburgh's inability to find balance. The Steelers ran the ball just 11 times, while gaining a paltry 1.7 yards per attempt. On the season, Pittsburgh is averaging just 3.57 rushing yards per carry--well south of the 4.2 average for NFL teams. With the Steelers largely unable to establish a ground attack (and often playing from behind), they're becoming too reliant on the passing game. Pittsburgh has thrown the ball 69.7% of time overall in 2018, which is one of the three highest rates among all teams. Last year, the Steelers passed on 59.7% of their total offensive snaps.
• Big Ben and the deep ball: Despite throwing for 300-plus yards each time, QB Ben Roethlisberger struggled mightily to connect with receivers on deep passes during the first three weeks of the 2018 season. When chucking the ball at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, Roethlisberger completed just three out of 16 passes (18.8%) with two touchdowns and one interception. Against Baltimore, he wasn't much better. Roethlisberger did throw a TD on a 20-plus yard pass, but finished the game 2-for-5 when going deep. He also struggled in the intermediate passing game, completing three out of ten passes with an INT on throws that were between ten and 20 yards past the line of scrimmage.
• Great JuJu: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster lasted until the 62nd overall pick of the 2017 draft in large part because scouts weren't sold on his speed and big-play ability. You think some teams might want a do-over? Through his first 18 NFL games, Smith-Schuster has posted some historically great numbers for a young wide receiver. Among wide outs who played at least 15 games during their first two NFL seasons, JuJu ranks 23rd all-time in receiving yards per game (74.1) and 17th in catch percentage (69.5). Among WR who have caught at least 50 passes since the start of the 2017 season, he ranks 12th in yards per reception (15)--ahead of guys like Mike Evans, A.J. Green and Antonio Brown, among many others
PENGUINS
• Which records will fall in 2018-19? The Penguins are focused on taking the Cup back from Ovi and the Capitals, but some individual players could also set new franchise records or climb the ranks of the team's all-time greats. Assuming he stays healthy, Sidney Crosby will become the team's all-time leader in games played. He currently sits at 864, which is behind only Mario Lemieux (915). Evgeni Malkin (784 games) will pass Jaromir Jagr (806) for third on the games-played list. Crosby also figures to pass Jagr for second in goals (Sid has 411, and Jagr tallied 439 with Pittsburgh). Kris Letang, meanwhile, will soon become the Pens' all-time leader in points scored by a defenseman. He has 437, just a few behind current leader Paul Coffey at 440.
• Riikola-mania running wild: Swift-skating, puck-moving defensemen in their mid-20s don't typically appear out of nowhere--especially ones that make less than a million bucks. But it might feel that way for Penguins fans who weren't previously familiar with Finnish product Juuso Riikola, who has generated serious buzz this preseason. Riikola helped generate a team-leading 38 scoring chances during the preseason, while scoring two goals and showing off his powerful slap shot (not to mention playing a much more physical game than you'd expect from a smaller D-man). With Riikola on the ice, the Penguins generated 53 percent of total scoring chances and 73 percent of total goals. It's just the preseason, but it looks like Penguins scouts uncovered yet another undervalued, low-cost asset. That's how you keep contending for Stanley Cups despite rarely having early-round picks and devoting so much of your salary cap to superstars.
• Schedule-makers show mercy: Last season, the Penguins — already physically taxed from a pair of Stanley Cup runs — had to endure a punishing schedule that featured an NHL-high 19 sets of back-to-back games. In 2018-19, however, the team won't take the ice with minimal rest nearly as often. The Penguins are scheduled to play 11 sets of back-to-back games, which is actually fewer than the league average of 12.9, according to NHL.com. A longer summer to recover and train, coupled with a more forgiving schedule, sets up the Penguins for success.
COLLEGES
• For Pitt, it only gets harder: The Panthers, reeling after suffering a second 30-plus point loss to a nationally ranked team in 2018, won't get any breaks on the schedule in the weeks to come. All of Pitt's remaining opponents currently have a winning record, and and five of the seven rank within the top 30 of College Football Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS). SRS ranks teams based on their average point differential as well as strength of schedule. Notre Dame and Duke place within the top 10 among all teams in SRS, while Miami, Virginia and Syracuse also crack the top 30. Given the rugged schedule and Pitt's myriad problems, it's entirely possible they miss out on a bowl game for a second consecutive year.
• Penalties killing the Panthers: Usually, it's a great thing for the Panthers to emulate their Rooney Complex neighbors, the Steelers. Not when it comes to taking a boatload of penalties, though. Pitt was flagged 11 times for 125 yards against Central Florida, and has committed an average of 8.5 penalties per game in 2018. That's the 19th-highest penalty rate among FBS teams. Last year, the Panthers had the 14th-lowest rate of flags drawn per game among FBS schools, 4.2.
• Trace McSorley a one-man show: QB Trace McSorley was all over the stat sheet in Penn State's one-point loss to Ohio State, passing for 286 yards and logging another 175 yards on the ground. The problem was, he was the entirety of the Nittany Lions' offense. McSorley accounted for 93.7 percent of Penn State's total offensive yardage, compared to 48.5 percent during the team's first four games of the 2018 season. Last year, McSorley accounted for 67.9 percent of Penn State's total offense. It makes sense that a Heisman Trophy contender drives a team's offense, but it's hard to win when no one else is making much of a contribution.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Revenge of the Senior Circuit: The MLB playoffs start this week, and you might be inclined to think that an American League team is destined to take home the World Series. And I wouldn't blame you, considering that the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, and Oakland A's have curb-stomped opponents this season while posting huge positive run differentials. But, if interleague play is any indication, maybe the National League stands a fighting chance. Collectively, NL clubs posted a .525 winning percentage against AL teams in 2018. This year marked the first time that the NL has triumphed in interleague play since 2003. There won't be a Buctober for the third consecutive year, but the Pirates nonetheless punished AL opponents to the tune of a .750 winning percentage.
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