Lolley's Kickoff: Steelers vs. Browns, matchups, data, picks taken at Heinz Field (Steelers)

Steelers running back James Conner (30) -- MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

The Steelers and Browns met just two months ago on the wet, windswept turf at FirstEnergy Stadium to open the regular season with a 21-21 tie, this after the visitors turned the ball over six times and blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead.

Since then, Cleveland has played three more overtime games, but obviously, that wasn't good enough. A team stuck in a seemingly endless rebuild mode, the Browns already bear little resemblance to that team from the opener. In fact, none of the four players who scored points for the, that day will start in the rematch Sunday at Heinz Field.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor?

He rushed for 77 yards, threw for 197 and accounted for two touchdowns -- one rushing and one passing -- has been benched in favor of rookie Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft.

Running back Carlos Hyde?

He was unceremoniously shipped off to Jacksonville two weeks ago for a fifth-round draft pick despite leading the Browns with 382 rushing yards and five touchdowns, including 62 and a score against the Steelers. Rookie Nick Chubb has replaced him in the starting lineup.

Troubled receiver Josh Gordon?

Traded to New England along with a seventh-round draft pick for a fifth-round selection to make room for rookie Antonio Calloway.

Placekicker Zane Gonzalez?

He had a potential game-winning field goal blocked at the end of overtime but made all three of his PATs against the Steelers, was released a week later, replaced by equally shaky Greg Joseph.

"They're a lot different than when we played them the first time," Stephon Tuitt told me. "And it starts with the quarterback."

Mayfield will be the seventh starting quarterback for the Browns (2-4-1) in their last eight meetings with the Steelers. Deshone Kizer, a second-round draft pick in 2017, started both games against the Steelers last season but was traded to Green Bay in the offseason after Mayfield was selected.

"He’ll take off if he gets the chance to run but he’s more likely to try to throw the ball than taking off," Keith Butler said. "He makes them better I think, he does a good job. He’s got a good arm. He’s got a really good arm. He’s got a cannon on him and I think he’s a smart guy."

But rookie quarterbacks are rookie quarterbacks. And the Steelers are 20-4 against rookie quarterbacks since the 2004 season.

That also happened to be Ben Roethlisberger's first season in the league. The Steelers are 21-2-1 against the Browns when Roethlisberger starts and haven't lost to Cleveland at home since 2003, a span of 14 games.

That bodes well for the Steelers (3-2-1), who moved into first place in the AFC North, percentage points ahead of Baltimore and Cincinnati, during their recently completed bye week.

"It’s a great feeling,” admitted Maurkice Pouncey. “But we know how the season is, very long. You never know how it plays out. You have to take it one game at a time.

“We didn’t do anything to get it. Other teams put us in this position. We have to go out there and keep working this Sunday.”

The Steelers are very cognizant of the mistakes they made in that earlier meeting with the Browns. It's why they won't relax in this meeting despite their dominance over these new-look Browns.

"They’re a lot better team," David DeCastro said. "The margin of error is always so thin in this league. But we’ve got a challenge ahead. This division is wide open. There’s only a couple of games separating the top and the bottom. We’ve got a lot of games left. They know that, too."

THE ESSENTIALS

• WhoSteelers (3-2-1) vs. Browns (2-4-1)

• When: 1:02 p.m.

• WhereHeinz Field

• TVKDKACBS (national)

• Satellite: SiriusXM channel 227, Internet 826

• Forecast: 48 degrees, rain

• Lots open: 9 a.m.

• Will call open: 11 a.m.

• Gates open: 11 a.m.

• BoxscoreNFL Game Center

 Media notes: Steelers | Browns

• Odds: MyBookie.AG

THE INJURY REPORT

Steelers: RT Marcus Gilbert (knee, out)

Browns: CB E.J. Gaines (concussion, out), WR Rashard Higgins (knee, out), LB Joe Schobert (hamstring, out), S Damarious Randall (groin, ankle, questionable), WR Da'Mari Scott (shoulder, questionable), C JC Tretter (ankle, questionable)

T.J. Watt celebrates a sack against the Browns earlier this season. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

THE KEY VARIABLE

The Steelers went into the offseason hoping to utilize defensive backs to help stabilize a defense that faltered down the stretch last season without Ryan Shazier. Safety Morgan Burnett was signed as a free agent. Rookie safety Terrell Edmunds was added in the first round of the draft. And the Steelers spent much of the offseason and training camp working on their sub packages.

But because of injuries to Burnett (four missed games), Joe Haden (one) and Mike Hilton (one), the Steelers haven't been able to utilize the extensive packages they worked on so much. That all could change this week. Burnett is set to return from a groin injury and his presence could allow the Steelers to unleash some looks they haven't shown much of to this point in an attempt to confuse Mayfield.

"I think Morgan gives up a little bit more opportunity to do some things that we haven’t done," Butler admitted. "I think he’ll help us. I think that getting (linebacker) L.J. (Fort) back will help us. So we feel good going into this game. We are excited and anticipated to play the Browns."

Mayfield has played well for the Browns -- better than Taylor -- but he is still a rookie. And rookies make mistakes. Mayfield has thrown five interceptions and fumbled four times, losing two, in the five games in which he's played.

If the Steelers can mix up their coverages and also get pressure on the young quarterback, the turnovers could come. They haven't yet, though, this season, as the Steelers have just four interceptions and recovered four fumbles in their first six games.

The Steelers had seven sacks of Taylor in the opener and have 22 in just six games. Mayfield has been sacked 18 times, including five each in each of the past three games. He has a passer rating of 66.3 when blitzed.

"I think it’s a combination of both, it’s always a combination of both, scheme, trying to win your one-on-ones and trying to do your best against the quarterback," said T.J. Watt, who had three sacks and blocked a field goal in the first meeting. "I think each week we do a good job of letting the four-man rush kind of do its thing and also open up opportunities for guys to win their one-on-ones."

Cleveland has forced a league-best 20 turnovers but also has turned the ball over 10 times.

The Browns were plus-5 in turnover ratio in the first meeting and didn't win. If the Steelers can win the turnover battle in this game, it could go a long way toward them winning the rematch.

Another big game from Watt would help. In three career games against the Browns, he has 24 tackles, six sacks and an interception.

"They’re really close to getting wins and I think they can sense that," Watt said of the Browns, who have played four overtime games already this season. "I feel like they’re a good team. We’re going to have to play a great, sound game and try to create turnovers.

HISTORY LESSON

The Browns haven't always been horrible since their return to the NFL in 1999. In fact, in 2002, they finished a half-game behind the 10-5-1 Steelers in the newly formed AFC North standings with a 9-7 record.

The two met in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs that year at Heinz Field, a game won, 36-33, by the Steelers.

Kelly Holcomb, starting in place of an injured Tim Couch and completed 26 of 43 passes for 429 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. It was nearly enough for the Browns to pull off the upset.

Cleveland took a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter before Antwaan Randle El returned a punt 66 yards for a touchdown to trim the lead to 14-7.

But Cleveland stretched the lead to 24-7 on a field goal and a 15-yard Dennis Northcutt TD catch before the Steelers came storming back behind Tommy Maddox.

First, Maddox found Plaxico Burress for a 6-yard TD pass late in the third quarter, but the Browns answered with a Phil Dawson field goal early in the fourth quarter to lead 27-14.

Maddox cut the lead to 27-21 with a short touchdown pass to tight end Jerame Tuman before Holcomb struck again, this time connecting with rookie receiver Andre' Davis for a 22-yard score with 10:17 remaining.

The Browns were going in for another score when safety Mike Logan picked off a Holcomb pass at the Steelers 25, ending the threat and setting up Maddox for a touchdown pass to Hines Ward to make it 33-28.

Then, with the Browns needing only a first down or two to secure the win, Northcutt dropped a pass all by himself in front of the Cleveland bench on third-and-12 with 2:49 remaining to force a punt.

Maddox had a pair of completions each to Burress and Ward to put the ball at the Cleveland 3 with 58 seconds remaining. That's when Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala crashed into the end zone for a touchdown to give the Steelers their first lead, 36-33 following a 2-point conversion pass from Randle El to Tuman.

The Browns had one last chance to tie it, but Andre King was tackled in bounds at the Pittsburgh 45 by Deshea Townsend to end the game.

That would be the last time the Browns would make the playoffs and two years later, Davis and his coaching staff -- including offensive coordinator Bruce Arians -- would be gone, fired in the middle of a 4-12 season.

THE MAIN MATCHUP

As we noted prior to the opener, Roethlisberger has a history against Cleveland defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. And it hasn't always been pretty.

The 335 yards Roethlisberger passed for in the first meeting were his career-best in a game against a Williams' coached defense. Unfortunately for the Steelers, so were his three interceptions.

In six career games against defenses coordinated by the ultra-aggressive Williams, Roethlisberger has averaged just under 237 passing yards per game. He's thrown six touchdown passes and seven interceptions.

But Roethlisberger has the most important statistic in his favor, four wins, one loss and a tie. And most importantly, Roethlisberger is 10-0 at Heinz Field against the Browns, who have started nine different quarterbacks against him in those games.

Unlike Mayfield, Roethlisberger thrives when blitzed. He has a passer rating of 114.7 when teams send an extra defender or two after him -- a calling card of Williams' defensive schemes.

One thing that could keep Williams from blitzing is the play of James Conner. Conner rushed for 135 yards and two touchdowns, adding five catches for another 57 in the opener. But he also lost a key fumble that started Cleveland's fourth-quarter comeback.

That was Conner's first career start. Williams has been impressed even more with what he's seen of Conner of late.

"I was very impressed in the opener," Williams said. "I have watched a ton of film on him, and he looks fresh, he looks better and I think he has even improved since the first game that we played against him, and that is through experience. I think his quickness and his feel in space plays. He is doing a really good job, an even better job in space than what he was doing coming into our game. I thought he pressed the hole."

The Browns rank 28th in the league in run defense, allowing 134.7 yards per game. They have given up 10 rushing touchdowns. Only Arizona has allowed more.

Conner has posted back-to-back 100-yard, two-touchdown games for the Steelers in wins over Atlanta and Cincinnati and enters the weekend eighth in the NFL with 453 rushing yards to go along with seven touchdowns.

The Steelers will be without right tackle Marcus Gilbert in this game, but his replacement, Matt Feiler, is a big, strong mauler who's at his best run blocking.

"I thought he was a dominant powerful runner, and he has improved in his pass game," Williams said of Conner. "We have our work cut out for us."

THE QUOTES

• "I like him. I watched him on film. He got trucked but he got up and got in the defender’s face. I like that. When I hit him, he ain’t going to run to my face. No (laughing), I do like him. He’s a good ball player. He’s put some good stuff on tape. I’m looking forward to playing him." -- Sean Davis, Steelers safety, on Mayfield

• "Ben is a great player. He’s been to the top of the mountain. I am sure he is preparing, he’s probably working on his quarterback sneaks and such." -- Todd Haley, former Steelers and current Browns offensive coordinator, on Roethlisberger

• "I think as men we all need to show emotion. I think there is a misconception out there that men shouldn’t show emotion, and I think that is wrong. I think we need to show emotion whether it is in a movie if you want to cry if it’s funny or if it’s sad. If you want to be around your wife or girlfriend. Just because you cry doesn’t mean you are any less manly. I think that is a false narrative. When it comes to football if something hurts, I mean he might have been hurting, who knows. I know I’ve cried in the locker room before from both joy and pain. You lose a football game, or if he gets up from something like that and he’s laughing then he’s going to get chastised for not showing enough emotion. I don’t know what story you are talking about, but for me, I don’t think it makes us any less manly to show emotion." -- Roethlisberger when asked about Oakland quarterback Derek Carr reportedly crying on the field

THE TEN DATA POINTS

• In his past seven games against Cleveland, Antonio Brown has caught 63 passes for 911 yards and five touchdowns.

• The Browns have allowed 14 more sacks than they have recorded, the largest differential in the league. The Steelers have 14 more sacks than they have allowed, the second-best ratio in the NFL behind only Baltimore (plus 15).

• The Browns have punted a league-high 16 times in opponent's territory. Houston, which played Thursday night, entered the week with the second-most empty trips with nine.

• The Browns have held the lead for just 19.7 percent of their offensive snaps, ahead of only the Giants (14.2 percent). The Browns have ranked 32nd in that category in each of the previous three seasons.

• Opposing teams have targeted their tight ends 26.5 percent of the time against the Steelers while the position has accounted for 30.3 percent of the receptions against them. Both lead the league.

• Roethlisberger leads the league in passer rating against man coverage this season at 118.3.

• The Steelers are allowing 87.3 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing running backs -- rushing and receiving -- the fewest in the league.

• Conner's seven rushing touchdowns are tied with Jerome Bettis (2004) and Franco Harris (1976) for the most in Steelers' history through six games.

• Roethlisberger needs one touchdown pass to tie Pro Football Hall of Fame member Fran Tarkenton for eighth place on the all-time list.

• The four quarterbacks selected in the top 10 of this year's draft comprise four of the bottom five players in the league in passer rating. Mayfield (78.5) has the best passer rating among that group to rank 29th in the league. Sam Darnold (31st), Josh Rosen (32nd) and Josh Allen (33rd) are the others.

THE FANTASY FREE PLAY

Here are projections for the top 10 fantasy players in this game.

  1. Roethlisberger, 297 yards passing, three touchdowns, one interception
  2. Brown, eight catches, 113 yards, one touchdown
  3. Conner, 21 carries, 103 yards rushing, one touchdown, four receptions, 34 yards
  4. Mayfield, 264 yards passing, one touchdown, two interceptions, five carries, 24 yards
  5. JuJu Smith-Schuster, six catches, 84 yards, one touchdown
  6. Jarvis Landry, seven catches, 84 yards, no touchdowns
  7. Nick Chubb, 18 carries, 64 yards, one reception, nine yards
  8. David Njoku, five catches, 62 yards, one touchdown
  9. Vance McDonald, four catches, 48 yards, one touchdown
  10. James White, four carries, 19 yards, four receptions, 34 yards

THE STAFF PICKS

Our football coverage team offers predictions:

Dale Lolley: The Steelers turned the ball over six times in Cleveland in Week 1 and the best the Browns could do was force a 21-21 tie. All three players who scored touchdowns for the Browns in that game -- Taylor, Josh Gordon and Carlos Hyde -- have either been traded away or benched. And Cleveland will start five rookies on offense and two on defense. Since turning the ball over six times in the opener, the Steelers have had just four turnovers in their past five games. Cleveland also hasn't won a road game since Oct. 11, 2015 when the Browns edged the Ravens, 33-30, in overtime. That's a span of four seasons and 22 games. If the Steelers take care of the football and get after Mayfield, they'll win this game going away. Steelers, 31-13

Christopher Carter: While the Steelers managed a tie, Roethlisberger outright lost the matchup with Gregg Williams’ defense in the opening week game. The Steelers need him to not only avoid the big mistakes, but also make the conventional throws that will be available. Williams lives for aggressive blitz calls and leaving zero coverage behind man assignments. Roethlisberger has to see the field and throw the ball behind where the blitz comes from. He’s been seeing the field well enough the past few weeks, and I think this is around the time his arm will become more consistent to follow through on those reads for big plays. The Steelers’ defense should give Mayfield a hard time and set the tone with around three turnovers, allowing the offense to put the game away. Steelers, 35-10

Matt Sunday: Simply put, Mayfield is the kind of quarterback who will win games. It's just an intangible truth. It hasn't translated more than once yet for he or the Browns, but it will. He may never have the runaway success in the league that's expected of someone drafted first overall, but he will win games. Number two comes this week. The Steelers just haven't been consistent enough to show they can avoid a letdown against an inferior team even with an extra week of preparation. Trick or treat, they say, and I chose the trick. I just had to go about this a different way after starting the season 0-6 in Lolley's Kickoff. Even if it's Peyton Manning dressed as Mayfield for Halloween. Steelers, 30-24

Dejan Kovacevic: Mayfield’s 1-3 as a starter, Cleveland social media and radio are ablaze about Hue and Haley, and the Browns are back in last place, where they’ve belonged all along. There’s a bona fide concern in Myles Garrett, especially if Williams moves him around to try to capitalize on Marcus Gilbert’s absence, but it’s not nearly enough to turn the tide for two teams going in decidedly different directions. Steelers, 34-12

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