Lolley's Kickoff: Matchups, data, picks taken in Baltimore (Steelers)

Bud Dupree sacks the Ravens' Joe Flacco in their earlier meeting. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

BALTIMORE -- Some have called this a must-win game. But that's simply just not true for either team.

No, Sunday's game between the Steelers and Ravens isn't a must-win contest because neither team is going to be eliminated from the playoffs or clinch a spot in the postseason with a win or a loss.

This game at M&T Bank Stadium is more about pride than anything else since it's way too early in the season to start talking about playoff positioning.

With the Ravens having already beaten the Steelers, 26-14, snapping a three-game losing streak to their bitter rival back on Sept. 30, this is all about Baltimore going for a sweep in the season series for the first time since 2015, and just the fourth time overall.

"This is an important game. They came here and beat us," Stephon Tuitt said. "They came in our stadium and beat us. We have to make sure we are ready to beat them."

The Steelers have swept the Ravens six times over the years and twice also beat them three times in a season. They've also been the team standing in Baltimore's way to a playoff berth in each of the past three seasons.

That's one of the reasons the Ravens celebrated their victory at Heinz Field earlier this season as if they had won a playoff game.

"We were here two years ago. We played our hearts out on Christmas day and we played a very good football game and we got beat by six inches in the end," John Harbaugh said after the Ravens beat the Steelers. "Came up here last year played our hearts out again, put 38 points up, and left our hearts out there again on that field and it’s final, two wins, and who loses the game. So in some ways this can be the end, but it’s also the beginning in terms of where we are going from here, so yeah it’s a pretty special win."

The Ravens have lost three of their past four games since to fall to 4-4. The Steelers, meanwhile, have won three in a row to improve to 4-2-1.

So much for momentum.

But the Ravens were doing a lot of talking following their win over the Steelers.

Take Joe Flacco, who threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns in the previous meeting, the most he's ever had in 20 games against the Steelers.

"When I’m out there throwing for a lot of yards, it’s not like today was one of the toughest Pittsburgh Steelers games I’ve ever played," Flacco said after that game. "I’ve played really tough games against these guys and probably have thrown for like 150 (yards)."

The Steelers want to make this a much more difficult task for the Ravens this time around.

"It all depends on what they want to do," Vince Williams told me. "It seems like last time, they wanted to throw the ball a lot. If they want to bang with their running backs like they usually do, we'll bang with their running backs. It just depends on what they want to do."

It could be difficult for the Ravens to gain traction in this game. They will be without starting offensive tackles Ronnie Stanley and James Hurst.

"It's a hostile environment with hostile fans," said Antonio Brown. "It's one of those environments you love to excel in."

THE ESSENTIALS

• WhoSteelers (4-2-1) at Ravens (4-4)

• When: 1:02 p.m.

• WhereM&T Bank Stadium

• TVKDKACBS (national)

• Satellite: SiriusXM channel 227, Internet 826

• Forecast: 58 degrees, sunny

• Lots open: 8:30 a.m.

• Will call open: 11 a.m.

• Gates open: 11 a.m.

• BoxscoreNFL Game Center

 Media notes: Steelers | Ravens

• Odds: MyBookie.AG

THE INJURY REPORT

Steelers: RT Marcus Gilbert (knee, doubtful), CB Coty Sensabaugh (toe, questionable), CB Artie Burns (ankle, questionable)

Ravens: OT James Hurst (back, out), OT Ronnie Stanley (ankle, out), LB Tim Williams (ankle, out), G Bradley Bozeman (calf, questionable), RB Alex Collins (foot, questionable), CB Marlon Humphrey (thigh, questionable), S Tony Jefferson (hamstring, questionable), WR Jordan Lasley (hamstring, questionable), G Alex Lewis (neck, questionable), LB C.J. Mosley (thigh, questionable)

James Conner is tackled by Ravens' Anthony Levine (41) and Marlon Humphrey (29) in their first meeting. -- MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

THE KEY VARIABLE

When these two teams met Sept. 30 at Heinz Field, the Steelers' running game never got out of neutral. James Conner was limited to 19 yards on nine rushing attempts as the Steelers were held to 19 yards on the ground as a team, their fewest in a game since the 1970 season.

Since then, Conner has rushed for 110, 111 and 146 yards, with two touchdowns in each game, winning AFC Offensive Player of the Month honors for October.

But the month is over and the Steelers need to get Conner rolling in this game to slow Baltimore's pass rush, which leads the NFL with 27 sacks.

Conner, of course, has been subbing for Le'Veon Bell and at least one member of the Ravens thinks the Steelers are better off with the second-year running back carrying the ball.

“They’re back to playing Mike Tomlin-Steeler football, which is, they’re making a commitment to the run game, and they’re doing it out of bigger personnel,” Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale said.

“If you look at their stats, there are a lot of stats in different categories that the Steelers are actually better without (Bell), that they’re better in those categories since 2015 without Le’Veon. So, that might be why he’s riding a jet ski down in Miami right now.”

All joking aside, Conner has averaged 131.7 total yards per game this season while scoring nine touchdowns. Bell has averaged 128.9 total yards per game during his career -- the highest average in NFL history for a player who has played at least 50 games -- and 118.7 yards per game against the Ravens, who are traditionally one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Last season against the Ravens, Bell had 186 total yards and scored twice in a 26-9 Steelers win at Baltimore, then had 125 total yards and scored three times in a thrilling 39-38 win late in the season at Heinz Field.

Despite averaging just 100 yards rushing per game -- 22nd in the league -- the Steelers have averaged 137 yards rushing per game in their last three games, all wins. The Ravens allow 98.1 yards rushing per game, 11th best in the NFL, but have given up 134 and 154 in each of their past two games, both losses.

The Steelers feel like they're in a better place with their running game this time around.

"You see the chemistry," JuJu Smith-Schuster said. "(It's) having James Conner as our running back and building that chemistry with the offensive line and the offense."

HISTORY LESSON

The year was 2004 and the matchup between the Ravens and Steelers seemed like just another early-season game between the two teams at M&T Bank Stadium.

Little did we know it would be the start of the series getting amped up even greater than before with the NFL debut of Roethlisberger.

Tommy Maddox started the Sept. 19 game and the Steelers fell behind 13-0 at the half on a touchdown run by Jamal Lewis and two Matt Stover field goals.

Then, in the third quarter, Maddox was sacked by cornerback Gary Baxter and fumbled at the Pittsburgh 25. Terrell Suggs, then a second-year defensive end, scooped up the loose ball and returned it to the 13 where he was tackled by Hines Ward.

Maddox suffered an elbow injury on the sack and would not return, opening the door for the Steelers' first-round draft pick, Roethlisberger, to enter the game.

Lewis scored his second touchdown on the next play to make it 20-0, putting the rookie in a deep hole.

And the Steelers took things slowly with Roethlisberger on his first possession, running the ball five times in a row before punting from their own 39.

After the Steelers forced a punt, the coaching staff decided to allow the rookie to start throwing the ball. That didn't work well, either.

His first pass, to Ward, was incomplete. His second, to Plaxico Burress, was intercepted by Adalius Thomas.

Roethlisberger finally completed a pass on his third series, a 21-yarder to Burress for his first NFL completion, but the Steelers were again forced to punt.

Early in the fourth quarter, Roethlisberger finally put the Steelers on the board. He completed a 58-yard pass to Ward, then found Antwaan Randle El for a three-yard score to trim the Ravens' lead to 20-7.

Baltimore answered with a field goal drive that ate up half of the fourth quarter before the Steelers got the ball back again, trailing 23-7. And Roethlisberger went to work again, completing 5 of 8 passes on the ensuing drive, including a 12-yard TD to Ward, though his two-point conversion pass to Burress was incomplete.

Trailing 23-13, it appeared the rookie might have some magic up his sleeve as the Steelers forced a three-and-out to get the ball back again with just under four minutes remaining.

But Chris McAlister ended any hopes of a Steelers' comeback by picking off Roethlisberger at midfield and returning it 51 yards for a touchdown to seal the Baltimore victory.

Roethlisberger completed 12 of 20 passes for 176 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, throwing for more yards than Maddox and Ravens' starter, Kyle Boller, combined.

Maddox was 4 of 13 for 67 yards, while Boller played the entire game and went 10 of 18 for 98 yards in what was a typical Steelers-Ravens game for those days. The Steelers had just 310 yards of total offense compared to 259 for Baltimore.

"You don't draft a guy that high for nothing," Ward would tell reporters after the game. "The potential's there. Now it's just for him to build on."

Little did he know just how true that statement was at the time.

THE MAIN MATCHUP

The first time these two teams met, the Ravens dominated the time of possession, holding the ball for over 35 minutes and outgaining the Steelers, 451-284.

The key to that didn't have anything to do with the Ravens playing crisply on offense. The Ravens only averaged 3.2 yards per rushing attempt and converted just one of five red zone trips into a touchdown -- after entering the game having converted their first 12 to open the season, setting an NFL record.

But Baltimore hit plenty of key plays, especially on third down, going 8 for 17 in the game. And the Ravens also converted their only fourth-down try, keeping the Steelers off the field in the second half to break open a game that was tied 14-14 at the half.

The Ravens posted possessions that lasted 11, 12 and 14 plays in the second half. They all ended with field goals, but the Steelers' offense was stuck in neutral, particularly in the third and fourth quarters, when they ran just 23 plays for 49 yards and recorded just three first downs. They went 2 for 12 on third downs in the game.

"Usually when you are losing possession downs it’s because they are unfavorable for you offensively or they are very manageable for your opposing offense," Mike Tomlin said. "We didn’t do good enough on possession downs. We didn’t do well enough on possession downs, and some of them were very manageable for our offense and some of them were long for their offense. As I look back at it, particularly in the second half of play where the game really unfolded, we didn’t do enough on possession downs. We didn’t get off the field on defense and we didn’t sustain drives on offense. I thought that was probably the singularly most deciding factor in terms of how the game unfolded."

Making sure that doesn't happen again is critical. The Ravens are converting 46.7 of their third downs on the season, fifth-best in the league. The Steelers have been good overall defensively on third downs, limiting conversions to 37.5 percent. Take away the game against the Ravens, and it's 35 percent.

That's of no consolation to the Steelers, though they have played their best defense of the season since, allowing just under 279 yards per game since losing to the Ravens.

"I think we have some people back if you look at it," Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler said. "Coaches have an effect, but I’ve never seen a good coach without good players and it always helps to get some guys back. And we have got some guys back and it has helped us a little bit, and them playing together."

The Steelers were without defensive backs Mike Hilton and Morgan Burnett in the previous meeting. They help make the defense better. And the Steelers have tasked corner Joe Haden with matching up against the opposing team's best receiving threat since then, as well.

It's likely Haden will do so this week against speedy John Brown, who caught three passes for 116 yards and a score in the first meeting.

But the other key will be limiting Baltimore's running game. The Ravens don't run the ball particularly well, but they are diverse in what they do. Two weeks ago, for example, they had 11 different players record a carry in a loss to the Saints.

One of those is backup quarterback Lamar Jackson, who will run some Wildcat plays. The Ravens also just traded for Ty Montgomery from Green Bay, a converted wide receiver. How much Montgomery plays remains to be seen, but the Steelers have to be on their toes for anything.

In the previous meeting, that meant doing things such as lining up a tight end at guard and having him go out for a pass on a key third down.

"The game is being stretched outside to the perimeter," Williams said. "We're probably going to need our cornerback to stick their neck rolls on and make some perimeter stops. Last time, they got some jet sweeps and some perimeter runs on us with Lamar Jackson. We've got to be more physical than that.

"You don't usually see (so many different runners), but they always have something like that. They'll have some speed sweeps. They've got some reverses in there. We'll have to be ready."

THE QUOTES

• “They have some hard guys up front. We do too. We just have to be on top of our job as far as consistently doing it. If we get away from the run early it could be a long day for us, unless Ben is just airing it out and pushing everyone’s fantasy points.” -- Ramon Foster, Steelers guard

• “They’ve won three in a row. They’re playing really well. They’re not giving up the big plays like they did a little more earlier in the year. They’ve tightened up that part of it. They’ve talked about that. I’ve seen that." -- Harbaugh on the Steelers

• "Maturity, man. You don't want to give them any more bulletin board material. ... It used to (bother him). I took everything very personal. Now, I just laugh it off. At the end of the day, both teams have to show up and play football. It doesn't help you. It doesn't score any touchdowns." -- Reformed trash-talker Terrell Suggs, Ravens defensive end/linebacker

THE TEN DATA POINTS

• In their past three games, the Steelers are allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt, the fewest in the NFL. In their first four games, they allowed 8.1 yards per attempt (26th).

Antonio Brown has never had a 100-yard game in Baltimore in his career. Brown has a team-record 39 100-yard receiving games.

• Brown has at least one touchdown catch in five consecutive games, the longest streak for the Steelers since Ron Shanklin did so in six straight in 1973.

• Conner has seven runs of 20 or more yards, tied with Saquan Barkley for the most in the league. Baltimore has allowed four runs of 20 or more yards.

• Opposing tight ends have accounted for 29.5 percent of the receiving yardage against the Ravens, the highest rate in the league. The Ravens have allowed 13 receptions for 149 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends in their past two games.

• Flacco is tied with Andrew Luck of the Colts for the league lead in passing attempts per game at 42.8 but is 14th in passing yards per game at 282.4.

• Roethlisberger has thrown for 33o or more yards in his past three road games.

• Brown is only the fifth player since 1970 to have at least eight touchdown catches in six consecutive seasons.

• Roethlisberger's next win will be the 140th of his career, all with the Steelers. That would move him within one of Peyton Manning (Indianapolis) for fifth place on the all-time list of wins with one franchise.

• Referee Craig Wrolstad's crew has worked seven games this season and has called 69 penalties on the road team and 38 on the home team. Home teams have won four of those games. The Steelers lead the league with 66 penalties. The Ravens are seventh with 58.

THE FANTASY FREE PLAY

Here are projections for the top 10 fantasy players in this game.

  1. Conner, 20 carries, 76 yards, one touchdown, four receptions, 33 yards
  2. Roethlisberger, 270 yards passing, two touchdowns, one interception
  3. Antonio Brown, seven receptions, 88 yards, one touchdown
  4. Flacco, 255 yards passing, two touchdowns, one interception
  5. Vance McDonald, five receptions, 65 yards, one touchdown
  6. John Brown, four receptions, 62 yards, one touchdown
  7. Michael Crabtree, five receptions, 60 yards, one touchdown
  8. Smith-Schuster, six receptions, 75 yards
  9. Alex Collins, 14 carries, 53 yards, one reception, 10 yards
  10. Buck Allen, three carries, 11 yards, three receptions, 21 yards

THE STAFF PICKS

Our football coverage team offers predictions:

Dale Lolley: I've gone back and forth on this game all week, given the gravity of the situation, especially for the Ravens. It isn’t a must-win game but they are in deep trouble if they lose this one to fall to 4-5. The Steelers? They can actually afford to lose this one, even though they would fall to 0-2 against Baltimore, thanks to their tie against Cleveland. Tiebreakers won't be an issue at the end of the year unless the Ravens somehow tie someone. Baltimore's offensive line issues are the difference here. They are all banged up on the line and Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt should exploit that. The Ravens struggle to run the ball, anyway, averaging 3.6 per carry, which is 31st in the NFL. The Steelers also seem to have figured things out on the back end and Flacco has fallen apart of late. Who would think the Steelers could win with their defense? But that's what they'll do. Steelers, 24-20

Chris Carter: The Ravens’ talented defense preys on offenses that aren’t playing well. That helped when the Steelers converted only two of twelve third downs in their previous game. But with Roethlisberger playing more consistently in recent weeks and the inspired play of Conner, it’s unlikely that they’ll have the same problems. The Steelers’ defense managed to limit the Ravens to two touchdowns when their defense was underperforming, so Flacco should be a decent test to the secondary’s consistency. The Steelers should be ready. Steelers, 27-16

Matt Sunday: Dale points out in the meat of his piece above that Montgomery is a complete wild card for the Ravens. At the beginning of the season, Collins was expected to have a big year, but he hasn't been productive and he's pretty banged up. It's odd to think that the Ravens' chances this week could rely on a backup quarterback and a converted running back who the team has had for just over a week now, but Jackson is more than a backup, and mixing in Montgomery to make some splash plays out of the backfield is the way the Ravens can pull it out. John Brown has been finding his way through the air and Willie Snead had a nice showing at Heinz Field. If the road team can contain those guys like they have against more quality receivers in weeks since that game, though, it bodes well for a season split. Steelers, 30-24

Dejan Kovacevic: This one should be academic on a couple fronts. One, the Ravens are big-time banged up, not least of which is missing both bookends on their offensive line. If Tomlin and Butler overthink this one, both should be in trouble. Blitz, blitz, blitz. Two, the Steelers couldn't possibly put up a worse performance -- and I'm talking effort -- than in these teams' previous meeting at Heinz Field. More than anything, though, I like where this offense is headed. Harbaugh loves to take away a single weapon. Well, good luck trying that triple-coverage gimmick on AB again. Because this time, Conner, JuJu, Vance McDonald and maybe more will be available to a quarterback who's long since found his stride. Steelers, 27-21

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