The day of reckoning is finally here. One way or another, by 4 p.m. today, the Steelers will know whether they move forward this season with or without All-Pro running back Le'Veon Bell.
That's the NFL deadline for players who have been given the franchise tag to either show up and sign the deal or be ineligible to play at all this season.
We’ll know what Bell has decided later today, and the Steelers (6-2-1) will return Wednesday from their break, following their 52-21 thumping of the Panthers last Thursday, with clarity in the situation as they begin preparations to play Sunday in Jacksonville (3-6).
Considering Bell hasn't signed as of yet, it appears he is willing to sit out the entire season rather than play for the $5.99 million he has remaining on the $14.54-million offer he would have received had he signed at the beginning of the season.
The reasons are many:
• Bell will be a free agent at the conclusion of the season, even if he doesn't report. The Steelers could place the franchise tag on him a third time, but it would cost them the average of the top-5 salaries in the league, roughly $25 million in 2018.
The Steelers won't use the franchise tag on him again. Their only other two remaining options both end in Bell gaining what he's wanted all along -- free agency.
They can place the transition tag on him, allowing him to negotiate with another team. They would then have seven days to match any offer he might receive. The Steelers could do this, match or threaten to match the deal, and either negotiate with the team for a draft pick to not match the deal or simply match it and trade him to that team.
If they do that and choose not to match, they would not receive a compensatory pick in 2020.
Or, they could do nothing, allow Bell to become a free agent and then recoup a compensatory selection -- likely at the end of the third round -- in 2020.
• The emergence of James Conner also has hurt Bell's position. Conner currently leads the AFC and is third in the NFL in rushing with 771 yards. He also has rushed for 10 touchdowns and has an NFL-best eight runs of 20 or more yards.
Conner has added 39 receptions for 387 yards and another score, leading many to wonder if the Steelers even need Bell at this point. Given Conner's production and the fact he's been here all season, Bell would likely be used as a backup even if he does sign, something that could hurt his value on the open market.
• Finally, what happened to Dez Bryant last week might be having an impact on Bell.
Bell surprisingly returned to Pittsburgh last week after spending the first half of the season in Miami. That led to speculation he might be ready to sign his deal and return to the Steelers.
But Bryant, who had been released by the Cowboys in April, signed with the New Orleans Saints last week after sitting out the first half of the season. In his first practice with the Saints, Bryant suffered a season-ending Achilles' tendon tear without contact.
For Bell, the question when that happened had to be would it be worth it for him to return to play this season -- even as a part-time player -- and risk a devastating injury with free agency around the corner.