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With the Penguins looking as lifeless as they have since the waning days of the Mike Johnston era, Jim Rutherford indicated that he's ready to make marked changes to his team's roster. He started doing just that by shipping out Carl Hagelin -- a jet-propelled winger whose speed, transition game and penalty killing helped define the Penguins' playing style during their recent Stanley Cup runs -- to the Kings for Tanner Pearson.
Will Trader Jim's latest move improve the Penguins' odds of competing for Cups over the next few years?
Or will the club miss Hagelin's contributions, and wish that they had let the pending free agent play out the 2018-19 season in Pittsburgh?
If you think that the Penguins need to get younger and bolster their secondary scoring, you'll probably like the deal. If you're worried that the Penguins are slowing down and surrendering far too many scoring chances, you might not be so thrilled.
Both Pearson, 26, and the 30-year-old Hagelin are wingers with strong puck possession numbers. But they achieve those possession numbers with contrasting styles. Pearson has more of a scoring touch and creates offensive chances for his line mates more frequently. Hagelin, meanwhile, rarely finds the back of the net but adds serious value by shutting down the opposition.
Since the beginning of the 2016-17 season, Pearson's teams have generated +3.3 more shots and +3 more scoring chances per 60 minutes with him on the ice compared to when he's not skating. Hagelin has provided a more modest boost in terms of shots (+1.8 more per 60 minutes of ice time), and his teams have actually created fewer scoring chances when he's on the ice (-0.4 fewer) compared to when he's on the bench. Overall, Pearson has averaged 0.22 goals and 0.48 points per game since the start of the 2016-17 season. Hagelin has 0.11 goals and 0.35 points per game.
On the defensive side of the equation, it's clear that the Penguins got worse in this trade. Pearson's teams have given up +1.8 more shots and +1.6 more scoring chances per 60 minutes when he's skating since 2016-17. With Hagelin on the ice, his teams have allowed -2 fewer shots and -2.8 fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time. The Swede's speed and ability to create turnovers (1.6 takeaways per 60 minutes, compared to 1.1 for Pearson) make him one of the best defensive wingers in the game.
Pearson and Hagelin don't have much in common in terms of playing style, but they're nearly identical in one key metric: Corsi For, which measures the percentage of total shots generated with a player on the ice. A number north of 50% means that a player helps his team control the puck. Pearson and Hagelin both rank in the top 20 in Corsi For among NHL wingers since the start of the 2016-17 campaign (minimum 150 games played over that time frame):
In acquiring Pearson for Hagelin, the Penguins got a player who's four years younger, has similarly robust puck possession stats, and is locked up longer-term at a similar cap number (he makes $3.75 million annually through the 2020-21 season). Pearson hasn't been nearly as good this season (his Corsi For is 48.4%, and the former 20-goal scorer just recently notched his first of the 2018-19 campaign), but it seems unlikely that he forgot how to play hockey in his mid-twenties. His shooting percentage (3.4%) is dramatically lower than his career 11% mark, too. Odds are, he starts to tilt the ice more in his team's favor and bury some pucks in the net.
That said, a team that's already struggling to defend--the Pens have allowed the 10th-most scoring chances and the 11th-most high-danger scoring chances among NHL teams--just got weaker in that regard. And a team that no longer distinguishes itself with speed lost arguably its fastest skater. The Penguins are a different, if not necessarily better, team following this trade.
MORE PENGUINS
• Replacing Hagelin on the PK: In acquiring Pearson for Hagelin, the Penguins left a void on their penalty kill unit. Hagelin was one of the Pens' stalwarts on the PK, averaging 2:25 of short-handed ice time per game since the beginning of the 2016-17 season. With Hagelin on the ice during the PK, the Penguins allowed 48.7 shots per 60 minutes of ice time. That was the lowest shots allowed rate among all Pittsburgh forwards who logged at least 150 PK minutes over that time frame, and the 26th-lowest rate among all NHL forwards meeting the same standard.
• Time to panic? How much has the Penguins' sluggish start harmed their chances of competing for a third Stanley Cup title in four seasons? Hockey-Reference's Playoff Probabilities report offers some insight. The report estimates a team's chances of reaching the playoffs by running 1,000 simulations of the rest of the season, accounting for a team's performance so far (weighed more as the season progresses), true talent level (several years of past performance data), and strength of schedule. Right now, the report has the Penguins way out of playoff contention. They're projected to finish 12th in the Eastern Conference with 88 points, and have an overall playoff probability of 33%. It's not the end of the world, but the Penguins simply cannot afford to coast through the fall and turn it on late, as they have in previous seasons. This iteration of the Pens isn't skilled and fast enough to treat most of the regular season as a dress rehearsal for the playoffs.
STEELERS
• A most improbable win: For the first three quarters of the Jaguars game, the Steelers offense played so poorly that it seemed like they forgot that the game was flexed out of prime time and began at 1 p.m. When Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette punched it in from two yards out to give the Jaguars a 16-0 lead with 2:09 remaining in the third quarter, his team had about a 96% chance of winning, according to simulation models that predict outcomes based on the game score, down and distance, and team talent levels. Even when the Steelers began their late-game heroics with under five minutes remaining, Jacksonville's odds of winning were at about 97%. QB Ben Roethlisberger's TD pass to tight end Vance McDonald with 2:28 left cut those odds to about 84%. The biggest swing, of course, came on Ben's dive into the end zone with just five seconds remaining, when Pittsburgh's odds of victory went from about 66% to 99%.
• He caught that?! The Steelers' improbable comeback wouldn't have been possible without some ridiculous, season highlight reel-quality catches. NFL Next Gen Stats keeps track of a metric called catch probability, which calculates the odds of a pass being completed based on factors like the distance and velocity of the pass, the receiver's separation from nearby defenders, and the receiver's distance from the sideline. Roethlisberger's 11-yard TD pass to McDonald -- where the Steelers tight end soared over double coverage in the back of the end zone to secure the pass -- had a catch probability of just 21%. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster's twisting, diving 35-yard snag with tight coverage from All-Pro corner A.J. Bouye had a catch probability of 30%. Roethlisberger's game-winning TD dive will live on for years, but don't forget about the incredible hands and body control shown by his receiving targets earlier in the game.
• Winning without a run game: For the first time during their six-game winning streak, the Steelers had no running game to speak of against the Jaguars. Pittsburgh finished with a mere 26 yards rushing and an average of 2.4 yards per carry. It's nearly unprecedented for the Steelers to have so little success on the ground, yet manage to emerge victorious. According to Pro Football Reference, the Steelers have rushed for fewer yards than they did on Sunday and still won the game only twice in franchise history. Pittsburgh beat the Baltimore Colts on November 3, 1957 despite rushing for 15 yards. And on December 20, 2015, they bested the Denver Broncos with just 23 rushing yards. The Steelers also rushed for 26 yards in a victory against the Cincinnati Bengals on September 19, 1982. James Conner and company could get back on track next week, as the Broncos' defense is allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (127.9) among all teams and the ninth-most yards per carry (4.7).
PIRATES
• In Erik Gonzalez, the Pirates acquired an adept fielder who has experience playing every position on the diamond except for catcher. He'll help shore up an infield defense that was porous in 2018, and provide a fail safe if Kevin Newman can't seize the everyday shortstop job next spring. Whether Gonzalez can hit is another matter entirely. The 27-year-old has been competent offensively at Triple-A (a .267 batting average, .306 on-base percentage, and a .406 slugging percentage in nearly 900 plate appearances), but his major league work has been spotty (.263 average, .292 OBP, .389 slugging in 275 plate appearances). Gonzalez has struggled to control the strike zone in the majors, walking in just 3.3% of his plate appearances and striking out 28.7% of the time. He is tied with Adam Rosales for the worst walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.11) among MLB hitters who have taken at least 250 trips to the plate over the past two seasons.
• Who starts at shortstop? Speaking of Gonzalez and Newman, who should get the starting job at shortstop next spring? According to the Steamer projection system on Fangraphs, Newman is the better in-house option despite his rough introduction to the majors. Steamer forecasts a player's stats based on past production and aging trends. Over the course of a full season, Gonzalez is projected to hit .255, get on base at a .291 clip and slug .377, with his defense grading out at about two runs worse than that of an average MLB shortstop. Newman is forecast for a .268 average, .312 OBP and a .360 slugging percentage, with superior defense (+4 runs better than an average-fielding shortstop). Newman's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -- a stat that measures a position player's total offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a Quad-A-type player -- is projected to be 1.2 over the course of a full season. Gonzalez's projected full-season WAR is 0.4. Newman's projection is hardly stellar, but it's better than the 0.2 WAR that the Pirates received from the shortstop position in 2018 (only the Milwaukee Brewers, at -1.7 WAR, had worse production at shortstop). In case you're wondering, the only realistic free agent options at shortstop who have better or comparable projections are Asdrubal Cabrera (2.4 WAR, though calling him a shortstop is a stretch), Jose Iglesias (2.1), Freddy Galvis (1.2) and long-time starter Jordy Mercer (1.2)
• Pitching staff takes a new approach: With the advent of Statcast and other advanced technology that allows for a higher level of performance analysis, MLB hitters have changed the game by taking more uppercut, power-oriented swings that produce fly balls and line drives. In 2018, MLB hitters had the lowest ground ball rate (43.2%) since Baseball Info Solutions began tracking such batted ball data back in 2002. Pitchers, in turn, have adapted to batters' more uppercut swings by throwing more four-seam fastballs -- pitches that are typically thrown higher in the zone and are hard to connect with if you're taking a cut that wouldn't look out of place at the Oakmont Country Club. The Pirates, once purveyors of two-seam fastballs and ground balls, have embraced the shift to throwing four-seam fastballs. Last year, Pirates pitchers had the third-highest rate of four-seamers thrown (42.4% of all pitches) among MLB teams. That's up from 36.1% of total pitches thrown in 2017, 34.8% in 2016, and 26.8% in 2015.
COLLEGES
• Pickett carries Panthers: For most of the 2018 season, Pitt QB Kenny Pickett has been an afterthought for a Panthers offense that has thrived by creating Route 28-sized lanes for running backs Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. But, with Wake Forest trying to stop the run at all costs, Pickett turned in his most electrifying performance since he busted the turnover chain and led Pitt to a home victory last season over then-second-ranked Miami as a true freshman. Pickett entered the Wake Forest game averaging just 137.9 passing yards per game and 6.5 yards per attempt. Against the Demon Deacons, Pickett threw for a career-best 316 yards while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt. His previous career high in passing yardage came against Virginia Tech last November (242), and the only other time he has averaged more passing yards per attempt was against the Hokies this November (14.7, though he threw just 11 passes). The newly-crowned Coastal Division champs are going to need a balanced, lethal offense to compete with Clemson in the ACC title game. Pickett's game seems to be evolving at just the right time.
• More history for McSorley: Penn State QB Trace McSorley's stats have taken a hit this year, due in no small part to his receiving corps dropping bushels of passes, but the senior continues to reach new career milestones with each passing week. During a victory against Rutgers, McSorley became the Nittany Lions' all-time wins leader among QBs (30), moving past Todd Blackledge (1980-1982) and Tony Sacca (1988-1991). He also passed the century mark in total touchdowns scored, becoming just the third player in Big Ten history to accomplish that feat (Ohio State's J.T. Barrett scored 147 total TDs between the 2014-2017 seasons, and Purdue's Drew Brees had 106 total TDs from 1997-2000). Next up for McSorley: If he gains at least 80 yards on the ground versus Maryland, he will jump past Michael Robinson for the most career rushing yards for a Penn State QB (Robinson had 1,637 from 2002-2005).
• Not Kevin Stalling's Panthers: It's extremely early, and the ACC gauntlet has yet to begin, but the Pitt men's basketball team sure looks more versatile and athletic under new head coach Jeff Capel. During the dumpster fire that was the 2017-18 season, Pitt ranked 308th in the nation in three-point percentage (.325), 323rd in total rebounds (31.5 per game) and 327th in possessions per game (67.7). So far in 2018-19, the Panthers rank 126th in three-point percentage (.362), 50th in rebounds (39.2 per game) and 143rd in possessions per game (74.4). Pitt is undersized, and they haven't exactly played Duke and North Carolina, but it's a welcome start.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• A tale of two Cy Youngs: From the front office to fans to players, baseball has become an analytics-driven industry. And with that evolution, the value placed on individual pitcher wins has diminished. Even casual fans now acknowledge that pitcher Ws aren't just the byproduct of individual talent, but also the overall talent level of the team and the pitcher's level of run support. This year's Cy Young Award results present a mixed bag on the perception of pitcher wins. In the National League, the Mets' Jacob deGrom was clearly the best choice--even though he had just 10 victories and played for a fourth-place team. deGrom posted 8.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2018. WAR estimates the value that a pitcher provides above that of the kind of pitcher who's available on the waiver wire. DeGrom's WAR dwarfed that of his closest NL competitor, Washington's Max Scherzer (7.2). In the American League, however, Tampa Bay's Blake Snell (4.6 WAR) took home the award despite ranking behind Justin Verlander (6.8), Gerrit Cole (6.3), Trevor Bauer (6.1), Luis Severino (5.7), Corey Kluber (5.6) and Carlos Carrasco (5.3). Voters might have been enticed by Snell's MLB-leading 21 wins. The more things change...
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