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It takes an avalanche of awful circumstances for a team with the Penguins' high-end talent to be out of a playoff spot in December, including costly injuries, a lack of development (or outright regression) by key young players, and the bottom falling out of the team's bottom-six scoring.
But perhaps the most confounding aspect of this confounding club is the goaltending.
With Matt Murray ineffective and now injured, Casey DeSmith has assumed a larger role than anyone could have imagined entering the 2018-19 season. At times, DeSmith makes 10-bell saves that bail out his teammates -- the kind of saves that make you think that he could be an NHL starter, and earn himself a nice pay day this offseason as an unrestricted free agent. At other times, though, he coughs up soft goals that could earn a benching in the ECHL, much less the NHL.
On the whole, DeSmith has been solid in 2018-19. Among 45 goalies who have logged at least 500 minutes of ice time, he ranks 14th in save percentage (.922). But that doesn't do justice to just how volatile his performance has been. The Corsica Hockey website, which tracks a goalie's save percentage on high, medium and low-danger shot attempts, sheds more light on DeSmith's game. The categories are assigned based on shot location, shot angle and game situation (including odd-man scoring chances). High-danger shots have a greater than 9% chance of turning into a goal, while medium-danger shots have between a 3-9% chance and low-danger shots have a less than 3% chance. When DeSmith has to make a Vezina-caliber save, he rises to the occasion. His .840 high-danger save percentage ranks eighth among goalies with 500+ minutes of ice time. But when the stakes are lower -- and the shots less lethal -- DeSmith gets beaten more than most.
DeSmith's .918 save percentage on medium-danger shots ranks just 28th among goalies logging 500+ minutes. Against low-danger shot attempts, he has one of the seven-worst save percentages in the league:
The Penguins haven't been a great defensive team this season, but it's not like they're hanging DeSmith out to dry. He has faced an average of 31.4 shot attempts per 60 minutes of ice time (23rd among regular goalies), and has seen 7.1 high-danger shots per 60 minutes (the fourth-lowest rate in the league). It's just that, for whatever reason, innocuous-looking shots are ending up in the back of the net against DeSmith -- and often from long distance (goals against him have been shot from an average of 24.5 feet from the net, 10th-highest among net minders).
Ironically, Murray has stopped nearly all of the softies (he's got a .991 low-danger save percentage) but has been porous versus medium (.885) and high-danger (.730) shots. If the Penguins could combine the two, they'd be in good shape. Instead, they've got a pair of goalies whose performance jumps around wildly from shot to shot, much less game to game. Goaltending coach Mike Buckley has some serious work to do.
MORE PENGUINS
• Crosby's ridiculous back hand: Sidney Crosby is better on his backhand than 99% of NHL players are while handling the puck more conventionally (he'd also probably be better than 99% of the league with one hand tied behind his back, but you get the point). Crosby has attempted the most backhanded shots this season (19) among all players, and he trails only Jeff Skinner of the Sabres for goals scored on the backhand (Skinner has six, Sid has five). As a team, the Penguins have attempted the second-most shots on the backhand (88) and are tied for fifth in backhanded goals (ten). Strong play on the backhand might be a lost art in most places, but not in Pittsburgh.
• Surrendering shorties: The Penguins' power play is humming along once again in 2018-19, with the team converting at the eighth-best clip (24.3%) among NHL teams. Unfortunately, they're also getting burned with the man (or two-man) advantage more than just about any other club. The Penguins have surrendered six goals while on the power play, which is the most in the league. They rank 24th in terms of shot share on the power play (79.3% of total shots taken in such situations, according to Natural Stat Trick), and rank 20th in the percentage of overall scoring chances generated (85.1%). Last year on the power play, the Penguins surrendered just three goals all season.
STEELERS
• The AFC North is up for grabs: Just a few weeks ago, the Steelers were 7-2-1, riding a six-game winning streak, and seemingly moonwalking to another AFC North Division title. Entering Week 12, Pittsburgh had a 97% chance of making the playoffs, a 93% chance of winning the division, and a 50% shot at earning a first-round bye in the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight's projection system (which runs 100,000 simulations of the season while factoring in team talent levels and strength of schedule). But, after a pair of soul-crushing losses and a three-game win streak reeled off by the Ravens, it's possible that the Steelers squander that division lead. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Steelers have an 84% chance of making the playoffs and a 70% chance of winning the division (forget about that first-round bye). Baltimore, meanwhile, now has a 66% chance of reaching the postseason and a reasonable 29% chance of claiming the AFC North. The Steelers are still considered the favorite, but it's no longer a foregone conclusion.
• AB over 1,000: With a 10-catch, 154 performance versus the Chargers, wide receiver Antonio Brown topped the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the seventh time in his seemingly Canton-bound career. That's the most 1,000-yard receiving seasons in Steelers history, surpassing Hines Ward's six, and it's tied for the 17th-most in NFL history. If he accomplishes the feat again next year, Brown will move into the top 10 all-time. Speaking of all-time records, Brown now has the fourth-most receiving yards (10,938) in NFL history through his age-30 season. The only wideouts to outproduce AB through age 30 are Randy Moss (12,193 yards), Calvin Johnson (11,619) and Larry Fitzgerald (11,367).
• Linebackers in coverage: The Steelers' linebackers are teeing off on opposing QBs regularly, having accounted for 23.5 of the team's league-leading 41 sacks. But in today's NFL, there's more to playing the position than simply rushing the passer. When it comes to dropping back in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's linebacker corps is getting exposed. Pro Football Focus assigns a coverage grade to defenders, on a scale of zero to 100 (with 100 being the best). T.J. Watt's coverage grade this season is just 30.6, while Vince Williams (53), L.J. Fort (59.9), Jon Bostic (63.1) and Bud Dupree (64.2) are also getting burned at times. Anthony Chickillo (73.3) has fared somewhat better, but no one has really stood out. Their shortcomings were on display versus the Chargers, when overmatched 'backers were at times asked to cover top wideout Keenan Allen (who finished with 14 receptions for 148 yards). Those coverage problems could also be a reason why the Steelers have allowed the ninth-most receptions (63) and 12th-most receiving yards (705) to tight ends in 2018.
PIRATES
• Chisenhall's splits: Lonnie Chisenhall signed with the Pirates for what amounts to seat cushion change in today's MLB (a one-year, $2.75 million deal with an additional $3 million in possible incentives). The deal gives the Pirates a more potent option in right field while Gregory Polanco heals from left shoulder surgery. Over the past three seasons, Chisenhall's offense has been 13% better than the overall MLB average. For comparison's sake, Polanco's offense has been 6% above average over that same time frame, and the average for all right fielders is about 4% better than the overall MLB average. But Chisenhall does have some significant drawbacks. Aside from the persistent calf injuries that have limited him to just 111 games over the past two years, Chisenhall has major platoon splits. The lefty batter has typically fared better against right-handed pitching (a career batting line that's 4% above the MLB average) than fellow lefties (8% below average). That makes him a less-than-ideal fourth outfielder over the long term, considering that Polanco and Corey Dickerson are both lefty batters with their own platoon issues (Polanco is 28% worse than average versus lefty pitching during his career, while Dickerson is 11% below average).
• Framing a Cervelli trade: The Pirates are reportedly exploring potential deals for catcher Francisco Cervelli, who's coming off perhaps his best offensive season and seems like a reasonable target at $11.5 million in 2019 despite his injury concerns. However, any team looking to pick up the 32-year-old will have to consider whether his pitch framing -- once a strength of his game -- is now a liability. Pitch framing measures a catcher's ability to influence ball-and-strike calls on the edges of the strike zone. The best pitch-framers can save their teams a ton of runs, which is what Cervelli did in 2015 (when he led all catchers with +26.7 pitch framing runs above average, according to Stat Corner) and 2016 (+9.9). But he was -9.4 runs worse than average in 2017, and was even worse this past season (-13.4). That's a massive swing -- one that amounts to several team wins in the standings. If Cervelli is no longer an asset as a pitch framer, he'll have to stay reasonably healthy and rake like he did in 2018 to remain a quality starter.
• PNC Park no lefty-hitting paradise: When a batter like Chisenhall signs with the Pirates, you will often hear about how PNC Park can provide a power boost to lefties. Superficially, it makes sense. There's a mere 320 feet between home plate and the right field seats by the foul pole, and the Allegheny River beckons to lefty sluggers in the background. But in reality, PNC Park isn't a great venue for left-handed hitters. PNC Park increases singles for lefties by a modest +2% compared to a neutral stadium, according to Fangraphs' park factors, but it decreases doubles by -2%, triples by -15%, and home runs by -2% (ranking 19th among all MLB parks in home run park factor for left-handed hitters). Considering that lefty batters must contend with the towering Clemente Wall and a spacious right-center field power alley, PNC Park doesn't really do them any favors.
COLLEGES
• A not-so-great eight: Few expected Pitt QB Kenny Pickett to come out chucking passes downfield against Clemson -- not with the Tigers' stable of future NFL defensive linemen collapsing the pocket, and with a pouring rain turning the game into a mud bowl. But Pickett's final line --four completions out of 16 passes for eight yards -- will go down as the ultimate example of how unbalanced the Panthers' 2018 offense has become. Pitt had, by far, its fewest passing yards in a single game dating back to at least 2000, according to the Sports-Reference Play Index Tool. The Panthers' previous passing lows this millennium were 49 (against Ohio in 2004), 50 (Utah in 2011), 55 (Penn State in 2018) and 67 (West Virginia in 2007). Only three FBS teams managed to pass for fewer yards in a game this season, and all of them run the triple-option: Army, Georgia Tech and Navy (each of whom had a game with zero yards passing).
• Taking a pass: Just how lopsided has Pitt's offensive attack been this season? Consider this: entering their Sun Bowl matchup with Stanford, just 38.3% of the Panthers' total offensive yards have come through the air. That's the eighth-lowest rate among FBS schools, ahead of only Navy (20%), Georgia Tech (20.1%), Army (21.1%), Georgia Southern (24.1%), Air Force (31.7%), Maryland (38%) and Wisconsin (38%). This year's run-centric attack is also a marked departure from the more balanced offenses rolled out by coach Pat Narduzzi in years past. Last year, 59.4% of the Panthers' offensive yards came through the passing game, and the mix was about even in 2016 (49.6%) and 2015 (50.5%).
• City Game smackdown: Back in the day, The City Game between Pitt and Duquesne was a fiercely competitive rivalry in which the Panthers and Dukes traded shots on the court, and fans occasionally followed suit in the stands. These days, though? Pitt wins by KO practically every year. The Panthers have won 18 of the past 20 men's City Games, including a 74-53 triumph last Friday. Over that time span, Pitt's average margin of victory is 16.2 points. Their 21-point margin this year is one of the largest in recent seasons, tied with the 2015 and 2012 games and ranking behind huge wins in 2008 (27) and 2004 (30, the largest margin of victory in the history of the series). With Pitt's extended stretch of dominance, it now leads the all-time series 55-32.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Lighting the lamp: The NFL isn't the only pro league where offense is all the rage. The NHL is in the midst of a scoring resurgence, with teams averaging the most goals per game (3.06) since the 2005-06 season. The power play is driving this trend, with clubs getting an average of 3.19 opportunities per game (the most since they averaged 3.27 per game 2013-14) and converting on the PP 20.8% of the time (the highest mark since teams scored 21% of the time in 1988-89). This year's standouts on the power play include the Lightning's Nikita Kucherov (17 points), Panthers' Keith Yandle (16) and Jets' Blake Wheeler (15). Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are tied for the Penguins' team lead, with 10 points apiece.
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