OAKLAND, Calif. -- Three weeks ago, the Steelers were cruising along at 7-2-1 and in the running for a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. Two weeks and two close losses later, they find themselves in a battle, not for a bye in the AFC playoffs, but to get into the tournament at all.
That's how quickly things can change in the NFL.
Now, at 7-4-1, the Steelers will face the Raiders (2-10) Sunday, just hoping to avoid being swept by the entire AFC West after having already lost to the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos this season by a combined 15 points.
The losses in the past two weeks came on the heels of a six-game winning streak that helped the Steelers open up a 2 1/2-game lead in the AFC North standings. But three wins in a row by the Ravens, coupled with the losses by the Steelers, have trimmed that lead to just a half of a game.
"I think everybody is already pretty urgent," Maurkice Pouncey told me. "Everybody in the NFL has that same urgency when you’re looking at the playoff picture. It’s not just us, it’s the NFL."
But after blowing a 16-point second-half lead last Sunday against the Chargers -- the largest at home in team history -- and given the circumstances, the urgency had better be kicked up a notch. Especially on the road versus a team the Steelers have traditionally struggled against.
The Steelers are 0-3 in Oakland with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.
"Well that’s what makes it fun, right?" he said. "It’s not an easy place to play. What an awesome challenge for us."
The Raiders aren't having the kind of season they had hoped for when they talked Jon Gruden to come out of the television booth to coach the team through its transition from Oakland to Las Vegas in 2020.
"Their coaching staff, I know a quite few of those guys personally," said Mike Tomlin. "Obviously, I worked for Jon Gruden and know the top-notch strategist that he is. I am sure he spent a lot of time analyzing us. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of concepts from them."
The Steelers will need to take better care of the ball. They've turned the ball over eight times in their past three games while forcing just one.
The Raiders, like the Steelers, have forced just 12 turnovers this season. The only difference is the Steelers lead the NFL with 41 sacks, while the Raiders are last with 10.
"A lot of it is done by creating environments, putting the quarterback under duress and so forth," Tomlin said. "That’s one of the reasons I’ve been disappointed in the lack of turnovers, because the quarterback largely has been under duress in the games we’ve played. We’ve gotten after the quarterback. Our sack total is kind of a reflection of that. We’ve got to be more opportunistic. We’ve got to preach it, we’ve got to work it. The guys have got to deliver. We’re definitely not going to sit on our hands and wait patiently for it to occur. We’re going to actively seek it, which is what we’re doing."
They're urgent to do so, especially after blowing the 16-point lead last week.
"We had so many negative plays in the first half, I was a little bit dumbfounded after the game," Cam Heyward told me. "We really could have put a stamp on that game with a couple of three-and-outs. This was a good teaching tool. If this is what you do in the first half, you’d better be able to do it in the second."
They'll get another chance this week.
THE ESSENTIALS
• When: 4:27 p.m.
• Where: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Satellite: SiriusXM 227 (Internet 826)
• Forecast: 58 degrees, partly cloudy
• Lots open: 11:25 a.m..
• Will call open: 2:25 p.m.
• Gates open: 2:25 p.m.
• Boxscore: NFL Game Center
• Odds: MyBookie.AG
THE INJURY REPORT
Steelers: RT Marcus Gilbert (knee, out), RB James Conner (ankle, out), LB Anthony Chickillo (ankle, questionable), S Morgan Burnett (back, questionable)
Raiders: DT Maurice Hurst (ankle, questionable), G Kelechi Osemele (toe, questionable), RB Doug Martin (knee, questionable), LB Kyle Wilber (hamstring, questionable), CB Daryl Worley (shoulder, questionable), WR Seth Roberts (concussion, questionable)
THE KEY VARIABLE
There are some teams that feature a tight end because they have a good one. There are some teams that feature a tight end because they have so many other weapons the tight end is always open.
And then there are the Raiders. They feature tight end Jared Cook because, well, they don't have anyone else of note in their passing attack, especially after trading Amari Cooper to Dallas last month for a first-round draft pick.
"Cook is their guy," Sean Davis told me. "We always play the game inside out. We always want to keep the ball inside of us. It doesn’t affect us. It just puts more pressure on the guy who is covering No. 87. They know they’re covering the hot receiver. Of course, I’m going to lean more to him."
Why not? The Raiders should lean on the 6-foot-5, 254-pound Cook more than anyone else. He has 78 targets this season, making 54 receptions for 709 yards and six touchdowns. Running back Jalen Richard has 56 receptions to lead the team, but Cook leads the Raiders in yards and touchdowns.
The Steelers aren't the best team in the league in stopping tight ends, but they aren't close to being the worst either. Opposing tight ends have caught 63 passes for 705 yards and five touchdowns against the Steelers this season. The receptions are tied for the ninth-most in the league to tight ends, while the yardage is 15th.
At least in this game, they can key in on Cook. Usually, that would mean matching up corner Joe Haden against the opposing team's top threat. But with Cook, that won't be the case.
"We just talk about it so the safeties and the linebackers who are matched up against him know his routes and know he’s going to be the guy getting the ball," said Haden.
The Raiders did get veteran receiver Jordy Nelson more involved in the offense last week in a 40-33 loss to the Chiefs. Nelson caught 10 passes for 95 yards, but it was Cook with his seven receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown that was the main threat for the Raiders.
"Size, speed. He looks like a big, old receiver," Haden said of what makes Cook effective. "He runs really good routes. He’s fast. He’s the favorite target, so he’s getting a lot of work. We have to make sure we know where he is at all times."
HISTORY LESSON
The 1995 Raiders opened the season at 8-2 under head coach Mike White. But injuries to 34-year-old starting quarterback Jeff Hostetler and 40-year-old back, Vince Evans, saw Oakland stumble into a game against the Steelers Dec. 10, 1995 with three losses in a row and their playoff hopes fading.
Oakland turned to rookie third-stringer Billy Joe Hobert for his first-career start. The Steelers made the rookie look as such, intercepting him four times -- two by Willie Williams -- and limiting the Raiders to just 190 total yards in a 29-10 victory.
Ernie Mills and Erric Pegram were the offensive stars for the Steelers.
Mills caught five passes for 93 yards and two touchdowns from Neil O'Donnell. It was the first, and only, two-touchdown reception game in Mills' nine-year career.
Pegram, meanwhile, went for 122 rushing yards on 26 carries as the Steelers held the ball for more than 37 minutes in the game.
The game was memorable not for the score or anything that happened in it, but because it was the Raiders' first season back in Oakland. It also marked the last time the Steelers have won in Oakland.
They have since visited Oakland three other times, losing all three to teams who finished with a combined record of 10-38.
Overall, the Steelers are 5-10 on the road against the Raiders, including playoff games.
Chuck Noll went 3-7 against the Raiders on the road, while Bill Cowher was 2-1. Mike Tomlin is 0-2.
The Raiders in that 1995 season, by the way, did not win another game after losing Hostetler, finishing 8-8 after their 8-2 start. The Conemaugh Township High School and West Virginia University product returned in 1996 and the Raiders won seven of his 13 starts, going 0-3 under Hobert.
By 1997, Hostetler and White were both gone, replaced by quarterback Jeff George and coach Joe Bugel as the Raiders stumbled to a 4-12 finish.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
The Raiders enter Sunday's game allowing an average of just over 153.3 yards rushing per game, tied with Cincinnati for the worst in the league.
But the Raiders also have allowed a league-worst 29 touchdown passes and give up 30.6 points per game.
With running back James Conner out with an ankle injury, the Steelers will rely on rookie Jaylen Samuels and veteran Stevan Ridley to power their rushing attack in a game against a team that has been manhandled in the run game all season. Those two have 30 carries between them this season.
"Ridley, he’s obviously a veteran and he’s had a lot of success. He’s been on a Super Bowl team," Pouncey said. "Samuels has been doing a great job of excelling in the pass game. He’s had some good runs and blocking really well. We’ve got a lot of confidence in all of them."
The Steelers also have shown a lot of faith in their passing game this season. Roethlisberger leads the league in passing yards with 3,945, while receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster enter the weekend as one of two duos with more than 1,000 receiving yards. Kansas City's Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are the others.
Gruden has a lot of respect for Brown, in particular.
"I’ve told all of our receivers, if you get a chance to watch him practice, you’ll see what unlocks the greatness in him," Gruden said. "He’s the hardest working man, I think, in football. Hardest working player I’ve ever seen practice. I’ve seen Jerry Rice, I’ve seen a lot of good ones, but I put Antonio Brown at the top. If there are any young wideouts out there, I’d go watch him practice. You figure out yourself why he’s such a good player.”
Gruden got to watch Brown work several times while working as an analyst for Monday Night Football the previous nine years. Now, his team faces the tall task of not only slowing Brown, but an offense that ranks first in the league in passing behind Roethlisberger.
I asked Roethlisberger this week if Gruden could have learned any inside secrets during television production meetings that could help him in this game.
"He’s one of those guys that everyone knows. Spends hours and hours on film and those kinds of things," Roethlisberger said. "I don’t know if production meetings are going to be gleaned on any of those things, but we’ll see."
Gruden had better hope so. The 36-year-old Roethlisberger is 0-3 in his career in Oakland and he'd love to check off the box on winning a game at the Oakland Coliseum before the Raiders make their move to Las Vegas or his career comes to an end.
"He doesn’t look any different to me," Gruden said. "He doesn’t look any different to me when I was playing against him, when I was coaching last time or when I was in the booth or studying him now. He’s still got a great physical presence in the pocket. He still creates a lot of offense when nothing is there with his scrambling. He’s at his best when they need him the most. They need him a lot right now, so we’re expecting the best from Roethlisberger."
THE QUOTES
• "They got rid of some key guys. I don’t know the situation that is going on, but when you get rid of those kind of guys that have been successful in the league, it’s not going to be the same outcome." -- Pouncey on the Raiders
• "The plays that he creates, that aren’t designed, are really cool. They are really fun to watch and that’s why the guy has got two rings. He’s been a really good pro at it.” -- Derek Carr, Raiders quarterback, on Roethlisberger
• “If you respect sports, you respect fans and venues, it’s a neat one. That is what makes it fun." -- Roethlisberger on playing at the Oakland Coliseum, otherwise known as "The Black Hole"
THE TEN DATA POINTS
• Brown needs 62 yards to become the second Steelers player with 11,000 receiving yards. Hines Ward holds the team record with 12,083.
• With 10 receptions, Brown can move past Wes Welker (672 from 2007-2012) for most receptions by any player over a six-year span in NFL history.
• Despite not recording a sack in the past two games, T.J. Watt has 10 sacks to lead the Steelers. That is the same number of sacks the Raiders have as a team.
• The Raiders have allowed an NFL-worst 29 touchdown passes, one per every 11.9 pass attempts against them.
• The Steelers are first in the NFL in sack differential at plus-24 (41 sacks for, 17 against), while the Raiders are last in the league at minus-29 (10 sacks, for 39 against).
• Opponents have scored on 50.8 percent of their possessions versus Oakland, the highest rate in the league.
• The Raiders allow 8.7 yards per pass attempt, the highest in the NFL.
• The Raiders have allowed nine touchdown passes to opposing tight ends, tied with Carolina for most in the NFL.
• The Steelers are allowing 90.2 yards rushing per game with Stephon Tuitt in the lineup, 151.5 yards per game without him.
• The Steelers are fourth in the NFL in total offense (413.8 yards per game) and seventh in defense (328.9). The Raiders are 22nd in offense (346.9) and 28th in defense (396.6) despite being the only team in the league against which opponents run more than they pass (51 percent to 49).
THE FANTASY FREE PLAY
Here are projections for the top 10 fantasy players in this game.
- Roethlisberger, 317 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, two carries, nine yards
- Brown, seven receptions, 85 yards, one touchdown
- Smith-Schuster, six receptions, 82 yards, one touchdown
- Carr, 260 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions
- Cook, four receptions, 54 yards, one touchdown
- Vance McDonald, four receptions, 48 yards, one touchdown
- Samuels, 10 carries, 38 yards, four receptions, 34 yards; (tie) Ridley, 12 carries, 44 yards, one reception, 7 yards
- Richard, three carries, six yards, five receptions, 38 yards
- James Washington, four receptions, 48 yards
- Jordy Nelson, four receptions, 40 yards
THE STAFF PICKS
Our football coverage team offers predictions:
Dale Lolley: I know all about the Steelers' past failures in Oakland, including their past three. But those three Steelers teams all finished the season 8-8 (2006, 2012, 2013). They weren't nearly as good as this one, regardless of what some fans might think. The Steelers remain one of just two teams -- the Chargers are the other -- to rank in the top 10 in the league in both offense and defense. The Raiders are in the bottom 10 in both categories. The Steelers can pick what they want to do in this game. The Raiders can't stop the pass or the run. And with just 10 sacks, they rush the passer worse than any team in the league. The Steelers do have some things they want to accomplish in this game in addition to winning. They want to get Washington going and they want to show the two-headed rushing attack of Samuels and Ridley can be effective. They will get a chance to do both. Steelers, 34-16
Christopher Carter: I love analyzing matchups, but when I conducted my film study of the Raiders to prepare for this week I could not find a single personnel advantage that could give them a game-changing edge. They have no pass rush, they cannot stop the run, they cannot protect Derek Carr, and their running game is non-existent. The only way they hang in this game is if Roethlisberger and the Steelers' offense has a repeat of how they committed six turnovers against the Browns in week 1. The Raiders' offensive line gets confused with the simplest of blitzes, so I see Keith Butler's packages getting home to Carr several times. Offensively, the Steelers should be able to throw everywhere they want with Brown and Smith-Schuster. I see the Steelers establishing a solid lead early and putting the Raiders away late. Steelers, 45-16.
Matt Sunday: There's something intangible about the Raiders and the Steelers, and it never seems to matter how much the talent differs between the two teams. This is the last time the Steelers will play their rival in Oakland, and that accounts for much more than the assets Jon Gruden has allowed his team to move on from. This isn't a game that should be close, or that the Raiders should ever have a chance in ... but I like the Vegas luck coming early and seeing this wild fan base through one last big one against the Steelers in Oakland. Raiders, 31-27
Dejan Kovacevic: The only thing uglier in Oakland than the Coliseum, the most poorly maintained venue in North American professional sports, is the football. Sorry, but there's nowhere further to go with that. Gruden's dismantled whatever hope might have still been lingering from Derek Carr's breakout a couple years ago, and these Raiders, particularly that defense, have no business being in a game with this version of the Steelers. That's not just predicting a blowout. It's expecting it, if only because we should. A loss here would deal a blow every bit as deserved as it would be devastating. Steelers, 41-12