BOSTON — First off, if Tom Brady is unable to play because of injury for any reason, the 2018 Patriots are finished. We all know this.
Up until this season — heck, maybe even last week — you would be correct in saying Brady could fully function with just about any injury. His toughness is beyond reproach. Brady was terrific in the AFC championship game last season, despite playing with a freshly opened hole near his throwing thumb (seriously). Brady has played with more ailments than most of us have had jobs. And he's won, almost all the time.
But after what we witnessed in Sunday's stunning (and completely fluky) 34-33 loss to the Dolphins, it's fair to begin to wonder if, at 41, Brady can still overcome his physical maladies like he used to. Well, to be precise, certain kinds of injuries (if he had the same hand injury, he'd still play well).
With any quarterbacks, especially the older one, the red-light, warning area is when a player has an injury in the lower body they can't shake. When it comes to throwing the ball, everything starts with the lower body, especially when you no longer have your fastball and everything needs to be in sync to be at the top of your game.
Brady is obviously dealing with an injury in the lower body. What that is exactly, or where it is, is up for interpretation. Our Dr. Jessica Flynn thinks it's with the left knee; I see some evidence it's the right knee or both. Honestly, it comes and goes. When it's not an issue, Brady is the MVP Brady of last season. We saw it for 10 glorious minutes of game action against the Dolphins — 13:26 to 3:49 of the second quarter.
But we also saw the other side, when Brady is feeling the injuries. When that happened against the Dolphins, he was Mortal, Very Average Tom Brady. Actually, with the setting in Miami Gardens, you couldn't help but to recall another former aging gunslinger who wound up succumbing to his various lower-body injuries: Dan Marino.
Brady isn't close to that point yet, but the overall point remains: I'm not sure these Patriots can get to the Super Bowl if Brady continues to deal with a lower body injury. It's clearly affecting his ability to be efficient. Sunday's loss was an example of that.
If Brady is Brady in the final 33 minutes of the game, the Patriots win that game going away. And we're not talking about that ridiculous final play or Stephen Gostkowski.
He was not, and the Patriots lost.
Let's go over the good, and the bad, from that game and what it all might mean:
Let's start with the raw numbers. It's night and day. Brady and the Patriots were at their best this season before the final two drives prior to halftime. After that, he wasn't even an average quarterback, and neither was the Patriots' offense against a defense that was and is 27th in weighted DVOA (how they're playing of late).
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Let's go to the tape. This was Classic Brady in the second quarter.
Cordarrelle Patterson touchdown drive
Rob Gronkowski touchdown drive
To this point, I had Brady for eight "plus" plays, including seven throws, and three "minus" plays — two decisions and one late delivery to Julian Edelman.
Then, after that touchdown, Brady and the Patriots offense went off a cliff. I had Brady for two plus throws (one to Josh Gordon, a third-down pass to Edelman) and 11 minus plays (seven throws, four decisions).
Here are the drives to finish the half:
Final drive
After halftime, Brady seemed to be moving better, but he was still largely ineffective.
A look at the pluses and minuses in the second half:
MINUS — Decision. 7:57 third quarter. Brady throws early and out of bounds over Patterson when he had Gronkowski coming wide open on a one-on-one corner route 10 yards down the field. No pressure.
No grade — 7:53, third quarter. 29-yard hitch to Gordon. Quick, open pass.
No grade — 6:32, third quarter. Dropped Edelman screen.
MINUS — Throw. 6:30, third quarter. Brady fails to climb the pocket and Cameron Wake ends up hitting his arm as he throws. If Brady moves up 6 inches, Gordon is wide open on a crosser.
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MINUS — Throw. 3:53, 3Q. Brady completely sails a backside slant to Gordon.
No grade — 3:07. Third-down pass to wide-open Gronkowski against zone. Brady hit but Gronk was open earlier.
MINUS — Throw, 2:26, 3Q. Brady throws a balloon ball deep to Gordon as he spins out of the throw for no reason against no pressure. A ball on more of a line is completed.
No grade — 2:22. Throw to open Gronkowski.
No grade — 0:48. Throw to open Edelman.
No grade — 0:05. Line fails to pick up zone exchange for sack.
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PLUS — Throw, 10:28 4Q. Finds Gordon in traffic in zone coverage. Not a high degree of difficulty, but a lot of traffic.
No grade — 9:51. Throw against man coverage to Gordon. Plus-catch.
No grade — 9:24. Quick throw to open James White against zone.
No grade — 8:16. Wide-open Gronkowski against zone with open Edelman right there, too.
No grade — 6:57. Contested backside slant incomplete to Gordon.
MINUS — Throw, 6:54 4Q. Brady rushes throw to Rex Burkhead in flat against minimal pressure.
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No grade — 3:49. Throw to open Edelman.
PLUS — Throw, 3:44 4Q. A 4-yard out to Edelman. Not greatest throw, but considering situation and amount of coverage, Brady threaded the needle.
No grade — 2:13. Gordon wide open on slant.
No grade — 1:56. Gordon pass interference. Pretty good throw though with some late pressure.
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So what was the big difference? There's no question in my mind Brady, after the Gronkowski touchdown, started to be conscious of his knee(s). Here's the initial video and this looks like more than just a brace issue. Brady's clearly in pain:
? @WBZPhotog captured Tom Brady having to go down to the turf on his way off the field after his TD pass to Gronk #WBZ #Patriots pic.twitter.com/Wu5lQoIqSf
— Joe Giza (@JoeGiza) December 10, 2018
Even after he was tended to, Brady was getting up strange after this incompletion where he doesn't attempt to step into the throw.
Do I think this is a major issue? No, I don't think so. This is something Brady has and will play with. But I don't like how his issues come and go during games or between games (clearly a huge problem in Tennessee)
In my mind, this game provided ample context. Brady and the offense functioned better than they have all season for nearly half the game. Sure, Gronkowski and possibly Edelman seemed healthier than they have been all season. We can't discount that.
But the Patriots, with Gordon, Gronkowski and Edelman, looked as formidable as they have all season in the first half.
The same personnel was on the field in the second half. What was the difference? I think it was very clearly Brady and his health. And I think that puts the offensive "struggles" (for them) into perspective (the Patriots are sixth in offensive DVOA and points scored — they haven't finished lower than second and third, respectively, in since '15): Brady hasn't been healthy for most of this season, and the team's fortunes rise and fall on how he feels that day and during the game.
The Patriots only have a chance to reach and win a Super Bowl if Brady and the offense function like they did in the first 26:11 against the Dolphins. I think that team can beat anyone anywhere. The team that finished the rest of the game could lose in the first round.
Which team will we get from here on out? Wish I could tell you. It's all dependent on Brady's legs. And none of us know the answers in that area except Brady and Alex Guerrero.
If you could tell me we’re going to get the Brady that played most of the first half, the Patriots’ prospects are as good as anybody’s. But if Brady doesn’t want to be hit — and that’s what we’re seeing at times — then there are issues. Will Brady be more willing to throw caution to the wind more in the postseason? Maybe.
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Editor's note: Greg Bedard is the founder, owner and lead analyst for Boston Sports Journal, a venture in that city that DKPittsburghSports.com proudly helped to launch two years ago.