As if things haven't been bad enough for the Steelers of late, here come their biggest foil, the team that seemingly stands in their way every year -- or at least for the better part of two decades.
What better time to exorcise the demon that is the Patriots?
At 7-5-1 and losers of their past three games, the Steelers cling to just a half-game lead over the Ravens (7-6) in the AFC North standings entering Sunday's game against the Patriots (9-4).
Not only is this game needed to end a five-game losing streak against the Patriots, it's needed to keep their suddenly perilous playoff hopes alive.
"I feel good about this one, I do," Stephon Tuitt told me. "This is an opportunity to put all of that negativity behind us. This is an opportunity to bounce back."
There's plenty to bounce back from.
After a 7-2-1 start, the Steelers have dropped games to the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders by a combined 13 points. After going 4-1-1 in their first six games decided by a touchdown or less, the Steelers have now lost three such games in a row.
And the Patriots have not only beaten them five times in a row, they've also won nine of the past 12 meetings dating back to 2004, when Ben Roethlisberger took over as the Steelers' quarterback. New England is 11-2 in games against the Steelers started by Tom Brady, who has a 111.8 passer rating in his career against them.
One of those victories, of course, came almost a year ago to the day, as the Patriots rallied by scoring the final 11 points of the game to edge the Steelers, 27-24, in what has become known as the Jesse James game.
The Steelers' tight end appeared to catch a go-ahead 10-yard touchdown in the closing minute of the game, only to have it overturned by replay officials in New York. Two plays later, Roethlisberger was intercepted in the end zone, ending the game.
That play was one the league pointed to as the impetus to clarify what is and isn't a catch in the offseason. It now would be considered a score.
"We were fortunate it ended in our favor," Patriots coach Bill Belichick admitted. "It’s a new year, and they’ve got a great team. Playing extremely well. Very disruptive. Attack you on defense and explosive as always on offense and the kicking game. We know it will be tough up there, like it always is."
The last part of that might elicit some chuckles from Steelers fans, who watched their team lose to the 3-10 Raiders last week. But the Patriots aren't in a spot where they can throw stones, especially on the road.
After losing, 34-33, on a hook-and-ladder play in Miami last week, the Patriots are just 3-4 in road games this season.
This obviously isn't the matchup it was a year ago, when the Steelers entered the game at 11-2 and the Patriots 10-3. But it's still an important one, especially for the Steelers.
They still have the confidence they can get the job done. But there's no doubt the results of the last three weeks have shaken their confidence a bit.
"That’s just how the NFL is," All-Pro guard David DeCastro told me. "There’s a reason there’s a salary cap, and there’s parity in this league for a reason. I’m not using that as an excuse, but that’s just how it is. So you gotta avoid those situations and try to win games by more than a possession, which is easier said than done, but that’s what you really gotta do if you want to be a good football team.”
Are the Steelers still a good football team?
"Good teams find a way to win," DeCastro told me. "We’ll see if we’re a good team or not.”
THE ESSENTIALS
• When: 4:27 p.m.
• Where: Heinz Field
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Satellite: SiriusXM 227, Internet 826
• Forecast: 44 degrees, 40% chance rain
• Lots open: 12:30 p.m.
• Will call open: 2:30 p.m.
• Gates open: 2:30 p.m.
• Boxscore: NFL Game Center
• Odds: MyBookie.AG
THE INJURY REPORT
Steelers: RT Marcus Gilbert (knee, out); RB James Conner (ankle, doubtful), WR Ryan Switzer (ankle, questionable)
Patriots: None
THE KEY VARIABLE
In the past, the Patriots have tried to match up on Antonio Brown with their top cornerback -- with some help -- in an attempt to keep the Steelers' top receiver under control.
It hasn't exactly slowed Brown, even though the Patriots have won four of those five meetings. In five career games against the Patriots, Brown has 32 receptions for 402 yards and three touchdowns. And that includes last season, when Brown suffered a calf injury early in the second quarter after running into cornerback Eric Rowe in the end zone. Brown had two receptions for 24 yards at the time of his injury.
Brown missed the final two games of last season because of that injury, but isn't looking for any kind of payback because of it.
"I'm just excited to be out there," Brown said.
The Patriots might not be all that excited to see both Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster on the field together.
The Steelers' dynamic pass-catching duo has combined for 177 receptions for 2,297 yards and 18 touchdowns already this season. Slowing one might be a reachable goal. Stopping both?
Good luck with that.
"You’re not going to get anybody better than these two guys, plus the quarterback,” Belichick said. “They got a lot of other guys, too, but these two receivers are elite. Elite-elite.”
This isn't the first top-notch receiving duo the Patriots have faced this season. Three weeks ago, they faced Minnesota's Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, limiting them to a combined 10 catches for 77 yards.
But, as Belichick noted, the Vikings don't have Roethlisberger. Despite his hefty paycheck this season, Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins isn't considered a elite quarterback, let alone an elite-elite quarterback.
“His consistency, his production, his toughness," Belichick said of what makes Roethlisberger different. "That is a tough kid. I don’t know if he gets enough credit for all of the things he does. He stands in there every week and makes big plays and gets the ball to his playmakers. He is a hard guy to get to. He has been a tremendous player, deep balls, play action, third down. He is a tough guy, tough competitor.”
Against Minnesota, New England's top corner, Stephon Gilmore, followed the speedy Diggs around, while Devin McCourty followed Thielen, who plays in the slot the majority of the time. The Patriots also doubled Thielen every chance they got.
But few teams this season have attempted to play Brown one-on-one -- and with little success -- and Smith-Schuster has played more snaps on the outside in recent weeks, moving there when the Steelers like the matchup.
The Steelers have used Ryan Switzer in the slot when Smith-Schuster has moved outside. Switzer suffered an ankle injury at practice Friday and is questionable to play against the Patriots. But veteran Eli Rogers has been activated for the game, a move that came on Saturday. Veteran right tackle Marcus Gilbert was placed on IR to make the move..
The Steelers are carrying only five active receivers after placing Justin Hunter on IR with a shoulder injury two weeks ago.
"When you start pushing the envelope with guys who can handle that inside position and yet they can go outside, it’s a luxury," Steelers offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said. "It really helps because you can move JuJu around to all the spots. It’s a compliment to him, really, in his second year. So, he’s capable of playing in and out. Eli isn’t as capable of playing out, but we haven’t really addressed it yet, but we know he’s capable as an inside receiver."
That adjustment to however the Patriots decide to try to defend Brown and Smith-Schuster will be a key component of this game.
Of course, it helps if the Steelers don't have a rushing attack. James Conner was initially listed as questionable to play in this game after sitting out last week but was downgraded to doubtful Saturday. The Steelers managed just 40 rushing yards last week against the Raiders without him.
But the biggest adjustment that needs to be made? Well, Brown, who is 1-4 in his career against the Patriots, had just a one-word answer for that when asked what the Steelers need to do.
"Win," he said with a smile.
HISTORY LESSON
While Brady gets credit for winning his first trip to the AFC Championship against the Steelers Jan. 27, 2002, that actually wasn't the case in that 24-17 victory.
Brady, a sixth-round draft pick in 2000, took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe early in the 2001 season and led the Patriots to an 11-3 record in his 14 starts. But he was hardly the legend he is now, averaging just under 190 passing yards per game while throwing 18 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions.
And the previous week before coming to Heinz Field to face the Steelers, he had benefitted from an archaic and little-known rule knows as "the tuck rule" to help the Patriots beat the Raiders, 16-13, in overtime.
The Steelers were tough on Brady from the start. Left tackle Matt Light was called for a false start on New England's first offensive play and Brady was sacked by Aaron Smith on the next.
But the Patriots took a 7-0 lead with 3:42 remaining in the first quarter on a 55-yard punt return by Troy Brown. That score came after punter Josh Miller boomed a 64-yard kick on his first attempt that Brown allowed to roll to the New England 23, only to have the Steelers penalized when receiver Troy Edwards -- working as a gunner -- ran out of bounds and did not immediately get back onto the playing field.
The Steelers drove to the New England 6 on their next possession, but settled for a 30-yard Kris Brown field goal early in the second quarter that trimmed the lead to 7-3.
The score would stay there, and late in the second quarter Brady suffered an ankle injury when safety Lee Flowers rolled up the back of his leg.
In came Bledsoe, who moved the Patriots 40 yards for a touchdown on an 11-yard pass to David Patten just before the end of the half to give the Patriots a 14-3 lead.
Kordell Stewart was sacked and fumbled to open the second half, but the Steelers defense got the ball back and Stewart moved the Steelers into field goal range once again. But Brown's 34-yard attempt was blocked by Brandon Mitchell and recovered by Troy Brown, who then lateraled the ball to Antwan Harris, who took it 49 yards for a touchdown and a 21-3 lead.
The Steelers answered with a 1-yard TD from Jerome Bettis on their next possession to cut the lead to 21-10, then got an 11-yard TD run from Amos Zereoue on the their following possession to make it 21-17 with 1:33 remaining in the third quarter.
That was as close as they would get, however, as Bledsoe would lead a field goal drive on New England's next possession to make it 24-17, and the Patriots would intercept Stewart twice after that to send them on to the Super Bowl.
Brady got credit for the win, but failed to lead a single scoring drive in the game, finishing 12 of 18 for 115 yards. Bledsoe didn't fare much better, completing 10 of 21 for 102 yards and a score.
But the blocked field goal and punt return touchdown, coupled with three interceptions by Stewart, doomed the Steelers to a loss in a game in which they outgained the 10-point underdog Patriots 306-259.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
When you think about the Patriots, visions of Brady chucking the ball all over the field come to mind.
But that largely hasn't been the Patriots this season. New England's run-pass ratio is a much more balanced 56.6-43.4 this season. Only eight teams run the ball more often than the Patriots, while 23 teams throw it more often.
That's one of the reasons why goal No. 1 for the Steelers in this game is to stop New England's running game.
"That's what they get it started with," Tuitt told me. "We have to shut that down this week."
While the Steelers rank fifth in the league in total offense, the Patriots are sixth. But New England averages 118.2 yards rushing per game, while the Steelers are at 89.0.
And the Patriots do it with a variety of backs. First-round draft pick Sony Michel has 706 yards and is more of a between-the-tackles pounder. James White is the pass-catching threat, leading the team with 76 receptions for 674 yards and 342 rushing yards. He's also scored a team-high 10 touchdowns. The Patriots also added Rex Burkhead back to the equation last week.
"They use all three of them and they all do different things," Tuitt said.
The Patriots also use fullback James Develin frequently. Devlin plays nearly 35 percent of the time, a lot for a position that is considered a dying breed.
And as soon as you start worrying about the issues those guys create, Brady starts picking you apart with his quick passing game to Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, along with deep passes to Josh Gordon.
As Mike Tomlin promised after the loss to the Raiders, the Steelers will make some defensive adjustments this week. That will include putting Artie Burns back in the starting lineup in place of Coty Sensabaugh and Cameron Sutton at the nickel corner spot instead of Mike Hilton -- at least part of the time.
It also could mean more man-defense schemes in the secondary. But that doesn't mean the Steelers won't mix in some zone, as well.
"You kind of have to pick and choose what you want to do against these guys and try not to let them get a bead on you with what you are doing," Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler said.
The Steelers did that against Brady last season and it worked for three-plus quarters. But he rallied the Patriots with 11 points in the fourth quarter of the 27-24 victory, throwing for 298 yards and one touchdown with one interception.
"To win this game, we've got to be on our details," Tuitt said. "They're a team that, how they do things, is based on the details. For us to beat them, we've got to be on our details."
THE QUOTES
• "Anytime you can share the field with maybe the greatest of all-time you should cherish it and value it, and you try to outplay them. It’s not any easy task and like you said, I don’t go against him (Brady) but it’s a neat thing to play against one of the best of all time." -- Roethlisberger on Brady
• "I’d love to have him back, no doubt, but not if he’s not healthy to do it." -- Fichtner on Conner's availability at running back
• “There are a lot of familiar faces there. A lot of guys we have competed against before. It almost feels like a division game.” -- Belichick on the Steelers
THE TEN DATA POINTS
• In nine regular season games against the Patriots, Roethlisberger has averaged 284.6 yards per game with 19 touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
• In his past five home games, Brown has averaged 97.4 yards per game with seven touchdown catches.
• Brown needs five receptions to surpass former Patriots star Wes Welker for the most receptions in a six-year period in NFL history. Welker had 672 for New England from 2007-2012.
• Roethlisberger and Brown have connected on 779 passes, tying them with Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne for the second-most by any duo in league history. Manning and Marvin Harrison are No. 1 with 953.
• The Steelers have scored a touchdown on 41 percent of their possessions at home this season, as opposed to scoring a touchdown on 24.4 percent of their drives on the road. Only the Saints (49.2 percent) score touchdowns more often at home.
• The Patriots average 23.3 points per game on the road and 33.5 points per game at home.
• Tight ends have accounted for 24.6 percent of the receptions against the Steelers and 25.5 percent of the receiving yardage, both of which rank in the bottom third of the league. But both the Steelers and Patriots have allowed seven touchdown catches to opposing tight ends.
• The Patriots are allowing 293.4 passing yards per game on the road as opposed to 248 at home. The Patriots have given up 14 of their 26 touchdown passes on the road, including four to Jacksonville and three last week to Miami, both losses.
• The Steelers allow 78.8 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, the seventh-fewest in the league.
• Both teams enter the game having allowed 18 sacks, tied for third-fewest in the league. The Steelers lead the league with 45 sacks, while New England has 24.
THE FANTASY FREE PLAY
Here are projections for the top 10 fantasy players in this game.
- Roethlisberger, 318 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, two rushes, nine yards
- Brady, 281 yards, two touchdowns, one interception
- Brown, six receptions, 79 yards, one touchdown
- Smith-Schuster, seven receptions, 90 yards
- Gronkowski, four receptions, 68 yards, one touchdown
- Michel, 16 carries, 73 yards, one reception, five yards
- Samuels, 12 carries, 48 yards, five receptions, 45 yards
- Gordon, four receptions, 62 yards, one touchdown
- White, four carries, 18 yards, five receptions, 45 yards
- Edelman, five catches, 59 yards
THE STAFF PICKS
Our football coverage team offers predictions:
Dale Lolley: I know I've been saying for some time now I felt the Steelers would beat the Patriots in this game. I still believe that can happen. But I don't believe it will without Conner. The Patriots are 3-4 on the road this season with losses at Detroit, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Miami. But the Steelers haven't exactly lit things up at home, either, going 3-3. If the Steelers are to win, they'll have to hold the Patriots close to their road scoring average (23.3 points per game). The Patriots are more of a running team now than they are one that throws the ball all over the place. And that bodes well for the Steelers, who have been solid most of the season against the run. But when it's close in crunch time, you have to go with Brady. Patriots, 27-24
Christopher Carter: The Patriots have always been very good at identifying the Steelers' top target and taking him out of the game. In recent years that was Brown, who last year was targeted on 27.9 percent of all passes with the next-closest, Le'Veon Bell, receiving 9 percent less. This year Brown still leads with 25.8 percent, but the next-closest player is Smith-Schuster with 23.7 percent. And if the Patriots put too much emphasis on one, the other could break loose for big-play opportunities. If Roethlisberger finds those weak spots and avoids those pesky wasted drives, the Steelers could build enough of a lead to hold on in the fourth quarter. Steelers, 31-27
Matt Sunday: It doesn't feel right to offer anything here other than my previous experiences with these teams. Three straight losses, two by multiple scores, one with the help of a really odd rule that couldn't be proven in either direction. Each of those games has had a primary Steeler missing for it. It was Roethlisberger the first time, Bell in the AFC Championship Game and Brown after he was injured last season. The Steelers had a legitimate chance in one of those games. With Conner doubtful, they'll face a similar situation to the prior three meetings. It's been tough for this team to handle the Patriots when fully stocked, and I think history repeats without all the weapons. Also ... Artie. Patriots, 38-25
Dejan Kovacevic: All opposing quarterbacks look the same to me anymore. OK, maybe not Blake Bortles. He was amazingly awful in Jacksonville. But all the rest, whoever the Steelers face, they're able to make any pass they want, to any target they want — anytime, anywhere. So, what's the difference, really, if it's Derek Carr or Tom Brady or, next week, Drew Brees against this defense? That's the question, in some form or other, I've been asking myself for weeks. What's the point in deep-dive analysis, never mind meaningful hope, for these Steelers if they can't stop anyone performing above a Bortles-type level? Until they can adequately answer that, to borrow from Rocky Bleier, I'm 'done' picking them against anyone with a living, breathing quarterback. Patriots, 51-50