Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
Compared to 2017, when T.J. Watt dropped quarterbacks and JuJu Smith-Schuster stretched the field from practically Day 1, the Steelers' 2018 draft class has been slow to develop.
First-rounder Terrell Edmunds has received plenty of snaps, but hasn't really stood out. He's the 64th-ranked safety in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus' player grades. Second-rounder James Washington has been a healthy inactive at times. Mason Rudolph is third on the QB depth chart, while fellow third-rounder Chuks Okorafor has been an emergency fill-in on the line. Marcus Allen straddles the inactives list, while Jaylen Samuels' main accomplishment for most of the year was beating out Fitzgerald Toussaint for a roster spot.
That is, until Sunday. With their playoff and AFC North title hopes dimming, and while confronting a team that has tortured them for nearly two decades, the Steelers received huge--and historic--contributions from their previously quiet rookie class.
Let's start with Washington, the all-time receiving leader at Oklahoma State who entered the Patriots game with nearly as many public barbs taken from Ben Roethlisberger as receptions (10). Washington pulled in three catches for 65 yards versus New England, including a 32-yard combat catch over Jason McCourty that few receivers in the game could make. NFL Next Gen Stats calculates the catch probability of every attempted pass, based on factors such as a receiver's separation from the nearest defender, the receiver's position on the field, and the distance, angle, and velocity of the throw. Washington's 32-yard snag had a catch probability of just 21.6%, which was the fifth-lowest mark among completed passes in Week 15. The Steelers drafted him to make exactly these kind of contested, I-want-it-more-than-you catches.
Washington was good, but Samuels was the star. And it's hard to think of a more improbable one. He never received more than 12 carries in a game while at North Carolina State, and was drafted as more of a a glorified receiver who's still learning to run between the tackles. He entered the Patriots game averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. And yet, with Le'Veon Bell out jet-skiing somewhere and James Conner out with an ankle injury, Samuels was the centerpiece of the Steelers' offense. He ran for 142 yards on 19 carries--a 7.5 yard average--while also catching a pair of passes for 30 yards total.
In fact, Samuels turned in the fifth-highest single-game yards from scrimmage total for a rookie in Steelers history:
Without big games from Washington and Samuels, the Steelers would be sitting at 7-6-1 with another brutal game on tap in New Orleans. Instead, they're 8-5-1 and have improved both their playoff odds (from 62% last week to 75%, according to 538 the FiveThirtyEight website) and chances of winning the AFC North (from 56% to 70%). Washington and Samuels didn't hit the ground running in the NFL, but they hit the Patriots hard at the most crucial moment of the season.
MORE STEELERS
• Beating Brady: Tom Brady is a noted Steelers killer, having compiled a career 109.9 passer rating (his highest against any team except for the Falcons) and a 26-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio against Pittsburgh in the regular regular season. His postseason stats (including another five TDs and zero picks) are gaudy, too.
But this past Sunday, the Steelers' defense turned in one of its best performances against the GOAT. Pittsburgh limited Brady to an 89.9 passer rating, which is his fourth-lowest mark in 14 career games against the Steelers (regular season and playoffs). The only other times that Brady fared worse against Pittsburgh came in October of 2004 (72.9 passer rating), the AFC Championship in 2002 (84.3) and December of 2017 (87.9).
• Hargrave's great leap forward: The Steelers have a pair of highly-paid, Pro Bowl-caliber defensive ends in Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, but don't overlook the breakout season being authored by nose tackle Javon Hargrave.
Hargrave, a third-round pick in the 2016 draft who played at FCS school South Carolina State, has evolved into a pass-rushing threat who's also stout against the run. Hargrave has 6.5 sacks this season, which ranks second on the team behind T.J. Watt (11). According to Pro Football Reference, Hargrave has compiled more sacks in a single season in 2018 than any other Steelers defensive tackle has since the NFL started tracking the stat in 1982 (Gary Dunn had six sacks in in both 1982 and 1983, while Gerald Williams notched six in 1990). Hargrave is rated as the 20th-best interior defender in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, which assigns player grades ranging from 0 to 100 based on pass rush and run defense skills. He actually has a higher grade as a run-stopper (79) than as a pass-rusher (72).
The Steelers deservedly take some heat for not drafting and developing defensive starters, but Hargrave playing like a poor man's Warren Sapp makes them look pretty smart.
PENGUINS
• Playoff Jake arrives early: Jake Guentzel just turned 24, but his playoff performances are already the stuff of legend (1.14 points per game in 37 career contests). His regular-season scoring output, while good, was more modest (0.66 points per game during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 campaigns). This year, Guentzel is racking up points like he's deep into another Stanley Cup pursuit (0.85 points per game). He's shooting the puck more often (2.55 per game, up from an average of two between 2016-18) and is helping the Penguins create more offense than ever before.
With Guentzel on the ice in five-on-five play, the Penguins have generated 55.8% of total shots taken, 55.7% of scoring chances, and 59.7% of goals scored. Those are career highs in all three categories for Guentzel, who's set to cash in as a restricted free agent next summer.
• Crosby elevates defensive play: When Mike Sullivan experimented with Phil Kessel and Guentzel on the top line, he cited the defensive 'conscience' of that line's center as a reason that he was comfortable with the move. And indeed, Sidney Crosby is doing a good job of shutting down opponents when he's not scoring goals from physics-defying angles or making no-look, tape-to-tape passes. When Crosby's skating in 5-on-5 situations, the Penguins are allowing just 27.9 shots per 60 minutes of ice time--the second-lowest mark on the team (behind Dominik Simon), and down from Crosby's mark of 28.4 in 2017-18.
From the NHL perspective, Crosby has the eighth-lowest shots against rate among centers with at least 350 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. He's also in the top 20 among centers meeting those same standards in scoring chances against per 60 minutes (23, down from 27.8 last year) and has improved his goals-against rate (2.2, compared to 2.6 in 2017-18).
• What's with Geno? While Crosby continues to play an elite, well-rounded game, his longtime superstar counterpart is in a serious funk. After a torrid start to 2018-19, Evgeni Malkin is playing some of the worst hockey of his illustrious career.
He is taking an average of just 2.3 shots per game--the lowest mark of his career--while not helping the Penguins drive possession and scoring like he typically does. With Malkin on the ice in five-on-five situations, the Penguins are generating 50.8% of total shots taken. That's his lowest shot share since the 2008-09 season (46.1%). The Penguins have a five-on-five goals for rate of just 47.9% when Malkin's skating, which is his lowest mark since 2009-10 (47.1%). And, on top of not letting it rip much on offense, Malkin is turning over the puck at an elevated clip. He has committed a career-worst 4.1 giveaways per 60 minutes of ice time, which is the sixth-highest rate among all NHL players who have logged at least 400 minutes this season.
PIRATES
• The upside of Jordan Lyles: You might be wondering why the Pirates signed free agent Jordan Lyles, a 28-year-old righty who has a career 5.28 ERA in more than 750 innings pitched. It seems like Neal Huntington is banking on Lyles continuing to strike out hitters at the clip that he did in 2018 (22.6% of batters faced), rather than in years past (16.1% career rate).
One reason for optimism: Lyles changed his pitching approach last year, throwing more four-seam fastballs (36% of total pitches thrown, compared to 29% in 2017) and curveballs (29%, 20% in 2017), and fewer sinkers (13%, 27% in 2017) and sliders (10%, 19% in 2017). His swing-and-miss rates on his four-seamer (22% in 2018, according to MLB Statcast) and curveball (29%) and considerably higher than on his sinker (17%) and slider (17%).
• Filling the fifth spot: After the Pirates traded Ivan Nova to the White Sox, both Huntington and Clint Hurdle said the Pirates could adopt the "opener" approach that the Rays, A's and Brewers, among other teams, employed last season. If the Pirates do opt to ditch the traditional fifth starter role in favor of using several arms in shorter stints to get through a game, expect Lyles to be involved.
During his career, Lyles has allowed a .659 On-Base-Plus-Slugging Percentage (OPS) when facing hitters for the first time in a game. That figure rises to .795 when he faces them for a second time, and jumps to an Andrew McCutchen-in-his-prime-like .964 through the third time. Nick Kingham could also be best deployed in shorter stints. As a rookie, Kingham was passable the first two times through the lineup (with an OPS allowed of around .780) but got shredded the third time (1.087 OPS).
Lyles and Kingham are hardly alone in losing steam when facing batters for a third time. Teams are considering the opener in part to limit innings thrown by fatigued pitchers who become much less effective as the game progresses. In 2018, starting pitchers allowed a .700 OPS when facing hitters for the first time, .731 the second time, and .784 the third time. For comparison's sake, relievers allowed a .720 OPS when facing hitters for the first time.
• Offseason homework for Kingham, Brault: Regardless of how the Pirates divide the workload when Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams aren't on the mound, both Kingham and Steven Brault could be asked to pitch more meaningful innings in 2019. To succeed, both guys need to find a way to retire opposite-handed batters.
The right-handed Kingham, who's out of options, limited righty hitters to a .722 OPS. That's close to the overall MLB average for righty pitchers against righty batters (.711). Lefties, on the other hand, crushed Kingham for a .959 OPS (.753 average for righty pitchers versus lefty batters). His strikeout-to-walk rate was 4.4 against right-handed batters, but just 1.56 against lefties. He mostly used a four-seam fastball (42% of pitches) and changeup (23%) against lefties, and both pitches got hammered (.610 slugging percentage on the four-seam fastball, .567 on the changeup, according to MLB Statcast).
Brault, a lefty, has a career .670 OPS versus same-side hitters (right around the MLB average for lefty-on-lefty situations) but an .832 OPS against righties (.740 MLB average for lefty pitchers against righty batters). He hasn't thrown enough strikes in the majors against hitters on either side of the plate (1.21 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus lefties, 1.67 against righties). His main problem against right-handers has been the home run ball. Brault has allowed 0.4 home runs per nine innings pitched against lefties, and 1.3 HR/9 against righties. Thirteen of the 16 homers that Brault has coughed up to righties have been on fastballs.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Turnover talk: There has been plenty of griping about the Steelers' lack of turnovers created on defense, and with good reason (they have generated a turnover on 8.5% of offensive drives, which ranks 28th among all teams). But it's worth noting that turnovers are becoming increasingly rare in the NFL as a whole. Twenty years ago, offenses committed a turnover on 14.1% of drives, according to Pro Football Reference. By 2008, the turnover rate had dropped to 12.9%. This season, teams are coughing up the ball on just 11.7% of drives. That's tied with 2015 for the third-lowest mark recorded over the two decades that Pro Football Reference has tracked that stat, ranking behind only the 2017 (11.4%) and 2016 (11.3%) seasons.
LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!
Do you have a question for Stats 'N’ At? Post it in comments below!