The Penguins are now on an incredible 13-2-1 run and eight-game winning streak following Friday night's 4-0 thrashing of the Jets, one of the Western Conference's best teams.
As the Penguins get their season back on track, so has Evgeni Malkin.
Malkin has had a streaky season. In a 10-game span between Nov. 24 and Dec. 14, Malkin was nearly absent, registering only one goal and four assists. In the 10 games since then, spanning Dec. 15 to Friday night, he's picked up the pace, with three goals and six assists.
It hasn't been a matter of puck luck for Malkin during his slump — he's visibly off of his game, and his stats show it.
The "expected goals" stat (or xG) makes up for the areas in which Corsi (all shot attempts, including missed and blocked shots) and Fenwick (all unblocked shot attempts) lack. Corsi and Fenwick don't take into account the type or quality of a shot -- two pretty important factors. A player could have an excellent Corsi rating comprised of low-quality shots, or a so-so Corsi rating but generating some quality scoring chances.
Expected goals models assign value to factors like the shot distance, shot angle, and shot type, as well as if a player attempts a shot on a rush, a rebound, or on the player's stronger side of the ice. With all these taken into account, the stat aims to be a better predictor of actual goals than Corsi or Fenwick.
This chart from Charting Hockey shows Malkin's expected goals averages over the course of the season. I've highlighted in red the Penguins' 13-2-1 run:
Malkin's expected goals, streaky for most of the beginning of the season, had reached its lowest point at the beginning of the Penguins' run. Since then, he's been steadily trending upwards for the most part. That means that Malkin is not only taking shots, he's taking good shots from better areas of the ice.
During that highlighted 16-game stretch, Malkin has registered four goals and nine assists. Not bad. And if he keeps up this trend, his expected goals totals are a pretty good indicator of more actual goals to come.
On Dec. 14, Mike Sullivan spoke on what he'd like to see Malkin do to revive his game.
“Just simplifying his game, slowing his game down, slowing his skating down, supporting the breakout, stopping on pucks,” the coach said.
Malkin has been doing just that in recent games. You don't need the fancy stats to see that Malkin is back on his game.
Malkin was flying on Friday. He led this first-period rush up ice despite pressure from three different Jets and protected the puck to create a chance. Brian Dumoulin wasn't able to cleanly handle the pass so the ensuing shot wasn't as strong a chance as it could have been, but it was a great rush by Malkin to set it up:
Malkin earned one assist in the win, setting up Dominik Simon's tally. Malkin picked up a rebound off of Matt Murray's pads, then flew up the ice, watching Simon the entire way. He sent the puck straight to the tape of Simon's stick, and Simon backhanded it in for the third goal of the game:
After the game, Simon credited the growing the chemistry of his entire line to their comfort and success on plays like that one.
"It feels better every game we play together, at least to me" said Simon. "I hope the same to these guys. It's great to play with them. (Patric Hornqvist) is a warrior, wins so many battles, makes plays. Geno, I don't have to say anything. I'm really glad to play with them."
Malkin has been creating chances and looking confident as of late. If he can continue to fly like he did on Friday and continue to generate more quality shots, the goals will follow.
MATT SUNDAY GALLERY
Penguins vs. Jets, PPG Paints Arena, Jan. 4, 2019 - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS