Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
Kris Letang is nearing his 32nd birthday and is a veteran of 12-plus NHL seasons. He has skated more than 20,000 combined minutes between the regular season and the playoffs, and has suffered -- in addition to the typical bumps, bruises and busted teeth that are an occupational hazard -- multiple concussions, a stroke, and a neck injury so severe it required season-ending surgery for a herniated disc.
And yet, Letang -- the object of some fans' scorn after last year's turnover-laden playoff exit and the subject of offseason trade rumors -- has arguably never been better.
The should-be All-Star is doing such a fine job of creating offense, shutting down opponents and limiting the mistakes that characterized his return to the ice last year he's a legitimate candidate to win the Norris Trophy as the game's top defenseman, an honor only Randy Carlyle (1980-81) has earned among Penguins blue liners.
Just how good has Letang been in 2018-19? Consider:
• He's averaging nearly a point per game (0.93), a scoring rate that far eclipses his career mark (0.66) and ranks just behind his 2015-16 (0.94) and 2012-13 (1.09) seasons. Among defenseman who have appeared in 30+ games, Letang's points per game total this season ranks behind just Morgan Rielly (1.07), Brent Burns (1.07), Thomas Chabot (1.0), John Carlson (0.98) and Mark Giordano (0.95). Aside from Letang, the only Penguins defensemen to average more points per game in a single season are Paul Coffey (1.51 in 1988-89, 1.46 in '87-88, 1.29 in '89-90, 1.22 in '90-91, 1.19 in '91-92), Carlyle (1.09 in his Norris Trophy-winning '80-81 season, 1.03 in '81-82), Sergei Zubov (1.03 in 1995-96) and Larry Murphy (1.0 in 1991-92 and 1.02 in 1992-93). Letang is the quarterback of a power play that's converting at a 26.5 percent clip, which is sixth-best among teams this year and would break the single-season franchise record set last year (26.2 percent).
• He's truly playing two-way hockey. Letang isn't a glorified winger who happens to be playing on the blue line. He's starting a career-high 52 percent of his faceoffs in the defensive zone (46 percent last year and for his career), while doing everything in his power to limit opponents' chances. For every 60 minutes Letang is on the ice this season in five-on-five situations, the Penguins are allowing an average of two goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. That's down from 3.2 goals per 60 minutes for Letang during the 2017-18 season, and it ranks in the top 25 among NHL defensemen who have at least 500 minutes of ice time. He's pressuring opponents into making mistakes (Letang has a career-best 2.6 takeaways per 60 minutes of ice time, which ranks in the top ten among defensemen with 500+ minutes and is up from 1.7 last year), and he's sacrificing his body (he has 4.4 blocked shots per 60 minutes, up from 3.4 last year).
• He's playing aggressive -- but also savvy -- hockey. In years past, Letang made some maddening mistakes that fueled the other team's scoring attack. That hasn't been the case very often this year. He's committing just two giveaways per 60 minutes, which is down from 2.5 last year and is his lowest mark since 2014-15 (1.7). Letang also is committing 0.5 total penalties per 60 minutes, a decrease from 0.8 last season and his lowest rate since 2013-14 (0.4).
• He's an iron man. Letang has always skated a crazy-high number of minutes, but his average of 26:02 of ice time this year is the second-highest of his career (he averaged 26:57 in 2015-16). He ranks fourth among all defenseman in average ice time, trailing only Drew Doughty, Ryan Suter and Seth Jones. He's out there for nearly half of the game most nights, while providing elite offense and more-than-capable defense.
When you put it all together, Letang has positively influenced his team's puck possession more than any other defenseman in the game. His Relative Corsi For Percentage is +8.2 percent this season. That means with Letang skating, the Penguins generate 8.2 percent more shots compared to when he’s off the ice. That's the best differential at his position in 2018-19, and it compares favorably with recent Norris Trophy winners Victor Hedman (+1.1 percent Relative Corsi For in 2017-18), Brent Burns (+5.2 in 2016-17) and Drew Doughty (+3.5 in 2015-16). It's also an improvement over Letang's already-impressive career rate of +4 percent. In terms of the top performers this year, you'll see another familiar face at No. 5:
For whatever reason, Letang has rarely been a top contender for the Norris Trophy (he finished third in voting in 2012-13 and fourth in 2015-16, with a few other top-10 finishes sprinkled in there). His work this season merits serious consideration, though. Just when some thought he was in decline, Letang has returned to elite status. He's showcasing his premium offensive talent while also clamping down defensively and toning down on the gaffes that in part characterized his 2017-18 season. Where would the Penguins would be without this super-charged version of Letang? And just consider how much worse their early-season tailspin would have been without a 26-minute-a-game superstar. If hockey writers complete that same thought exercise, Letang just might bring home the Norris.
MORE PENGUINS
• A new man in the net: Since returning from a lower-body injury in mid-December, Matt Murray has looked like the premier young goalie who hoisted a pair of Stanley Cups -- not the frustrated netminder who was getting routinely yanked in favor of Casey DeSmith earlier this season. In particular, Murray has done a much better job of stopping high-danger scoring chances -- shots that have the highest odds of turning into a goal, based on shot location, shot angle, and odd-man rush situations. Prior to his injury-related break, Murray had a .750 save percentage against high-danger shots. That was the fourth-worst rate among regular NHL goalies to that point. Since coming back, he has a .917 high-danger save percentage. That's third-best among all goalies who have at least 200 minutes of ice time since mid-December. It also doesn't hurt that his teammates are doing a better job of defending the net: Murray saw an average of 10.5 high-danger shots per 60 minutes before his injury, and 8.3 since returning.
• Fourth-line center a problem, too: While Derick Brassard's lack of production gets most of the attention, the truth is the Penguins aren't getting much from their fourth-line center, either. Matt Cullen is highly respected and helped win a pair of Stanley Cups, but the NHL's oldest player has also been one of its worst in 2018-19. With Cullen on the ice in five-on-five situations, the Penguins have generated just 40.8 percent of total shot attempts (the lowest rate among regulars on the team) and 43.7 percent of scoring chances (second-lowest, besting only Brassard). Cullen has the 11th-lowest shot share among all players who have logged at least 200 minutes of five-on-five ice time this year--and it's not like his Minnesota homecoming last year was much more successful (he had a 40.9 percent shot share with the Wild in 2017-18). Uncomfortable as it might be, the Penguins will have to consider making a change if Cullen's play doesn't improve. Could Teddy Blueger, a center prospect called NHL-ready GM Jim Rutherford who leads the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in points, be the answer?
STEELERS
• Feiler more than a fill-in: After several years of stability and success, change is coming to the Steelers' offensive line. Coach Mike Munchak is a candidate for the deluge of head coaching vacancies across the NFL. B.J. Finney could take over for pending free agent Ramon Foster at left guard. At right tackle, the Steelers could also opt to go younger and save some cap space by committing to Matt Feiler over Marcus Gilbert. Feiler, a 26-year-old former undrafted player from Bloomsburg, filled in capably for Gilbert this season. Feiler rated as the 31st-best tackle in the NFL in 2018 according to Pro Football Focus' player grades, landing an overall mark of 71 on PFF's 0-100 scale while scoring solid grades in both pass protection (70) and run blocking (65). According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers had the top rushing attack in the league when running off the right edge. For comparison's sake, Gilbert has an overall grade of 69 this year in limited playing time, and had a 77 grade in 2017. Considering Feiler's play and Gilbert's lack of availability over the past two years, it wouldn't be shocking if they release him and save around $4.9 million against the cap.
• A secondary setback: While there are no shortage of reasons why the Steelers are watching the playoffs from home this year, the regression of the team's pass defense is a significant factor. In 2017, Pittsburgh's defense allowed a 59 percent completion rate (10th-lowest in the NFL), 201.1 passing yards per game (5th) and an 81.8 passer rating (12th). In 2018, the Steelers gave up a 64 percent completion rate (13th-lowest among teams), 231.1 passing yards per game (10th) and a 95.2 passer rating (20th). Former first-round pick Artie Burns fell off a cliff, and guys such as Coty Sensabaugh and Cam Sutton were just adequate at cornerback. Morgan Burnett was injured and inconsistent, and rookie Terrell Edmunds took some time to catch on. But the linebackers shoulder some of the blame, too. Inside linebackers Vince Williams and Jon Bostic both had Pro Football Focus coverage grades that were well below average (55 and 56 on a 0-100 scale, respectively). On the outside, Bud Dupree was adequate (67) and T.J. Watt has lots of room for improvement (39).
• Will the outlaw return? The Steelers received mammoth contributions from their tight ends in 2018, with Vance McDonald, Jesse James and Xavier Grimble combining for 1,193 receiving yards. McDonald (610) led the pack, but James -- a free agent-to-be -- chipped in with a career-high 423 while transforming into a more reliable and dangerous receiving threat. During his first three NFL seasons, the Penn State product caught 67.2 percent of passes thrown his way and averaged 8.5 yards per reception. This past year, James caught 76.9 percent of passes (sixth-best among tight ends who were targeted at least 20 times) and averaged 14.1 yards per reception (sixth-highest). James has seemingly never been the team's preferred option at the position (which is why it first brought in Ladarius Green and then McDonald), but the Steelers would be wise to re-sign him unless another team offers him crazy money this offseason.
PIRATES
• Is Marte slowing down? Last week, we broke down how Starling Marte rebounded at the plate by improving against slow stuff (breaking and off-speed pitches). But, as we enter the 2019 season, should we be at least a little worried about the fast stuff -- specifically, Marte's speed? According to MLB Statcast, Marte ranked 47th among all players in sprint speed during the 2016 season. Sprint speed measures a player's feet covered per second while advancing multiple bases on base hits, and while gunning it down the first base line on close plays. Marte dropped to 65th in sprint speed in 2017, and 81st this past season. His Speed Score -- a stat that measures a player's wheels based on stolen base percentage, frequency of attempted steals, percentage of triples, and percentage of runs scored -- has dropped from 7.7 in 2016, to 7.1 in 2017, to 6.6 in 2018. For comparison's sake, a score of seven is considered excellent. No one's calling Marte a slow poke, but the 30-year-old's game is so highly dependent on speed that any decline is worrisome. If he's not beating out as many infield hits, taking as many extra bases, and saving as many runs in the field, then his swing-at-anything approach becomes less palatable.
• Lyons a low-cost gamble: The Pirates recently signed long-time St. Louis Cardinal lefty Tyler Lyons to a minor league contract, hoping that he can return to his 2017 form. Slowed by back and elbow injuries, Lyons was pummeled to the tune of an 8.64 ERA last year in 16 2/3 innings pitched. But there's bounce back potential here if he's healthy. In '17, Lyons posted a 2.83 ERA in 54 innings, with a Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 2.86. FIP estimates a pitcher's ERA based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed -- the three outcomes over which pitchers have the most direct control, and which do the best job of projecting future success. Lyons doesn't throw hard, parking his fastball at around 90, but his wipeout low-80s slider helped him strike out 11.3 batters per nine innings in 2017. That ranked within the top 30 among all qualified MLB relievers that season.
• Who's on first? Josh Bell's 2018 season didn't go according to plan. The switch-hitter's offense remained modest for the standards of his position (his park-adjusted On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage was 11 percent above the overall MLB average, while first baseman as a whole were 12 percent above average), and his fielding cost the Pirates about nine runs compared to an average defensive first baseman, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs saved metric. With Bell getting the bulk of the playing time, the Pirates ranked 21st among MLB teams in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) by first basemen this past season. WAR measures a player's hitting, fielding, and base running value compared to that of a waiver wire-caliber player. The Pirates still hope the 26-year-old can hit for more power and clean up his defense, but his 2018 season continued a long-term trend of the team getting little value from first base. Over the past decade, the Pirates rank 25th in WAR by first basemen. Only the Royals, Marlins, Rangers, Rockies and Mariners have received less production from that spot.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Star QBs on display: Want more proof QBs drive the bus in the NFL? Consider this: Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs, 11 of them were led by a QB who had an adjusted passer rating ranked in the top half of the league. Adjusted passer rating accounts for the league-wide offensive environment and places a player's passer rating on a scale where 100 is average, below 100 is worse than average, and north of 100 is above average. Drew Brees (134 adjusted passer rating, tops among QBs), Patrick Mahomes (131, second), Russell Wilson (127, third), Philip Rivers (120, fifth), Deshaun Watson (117, sixth), Jared Goff (115, eighth), Andrew Luck (111, 11th), Tom Brady (110, 12th), Dak Prescott (109, 14th) and Mitchell Trubisky (107, 16th) all made the postseason. The Eagles, meanwhile, have been guided by Carson Wentz (116, seventh) and Nick Foles, whose 108 adjusted rating would crack the top half if he threw enough passes to qualify. Baltimore rookie Lamar Jackson (93), an elite scrambler who's still developing in the passing game, was the lone playoff starter to rank outside of the top half in adjusted passer rating.
LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!
Do you have a question for Stats 'N’ At? Post it in comments below!