Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
The notion that a player as accomplished as Evgeni Malkin lacks confidence may seem mind-boggling. He's a three-time All-Star and Stanley Cup champion. A two-time Art Ross Trophy winner, and a Hart Memorial Trophy winner. Through age 31, Malkin ranks in the top 50 all-time in points, and the top 20 in adjusted points (which accounts for the league-wide offensive environment in which a player competed). Just writing that paragraph is enough to make me want to puff out my chest.
And yet, Malkin admits he's down on his game as of late, lacking the swagger he exudes when slashing past defenders, racking up points, and rattling off the boards and roaring in celebration. And it's true: Malkin is turning in one of the worst seasons of his 13-year, Hall of Fame-bound career. He hasn't suddenly fallen off a cliff, but Geno has plenty of room for improvement as the Penguins make a playoff push.
Malkin has hardly forgotten how to score, as his current pace of 1.08 points per game (29th in the NHL) is disappointing only in comparison to his lofty career average of 1.18. But, in both five-on-five play and on the power-play, Malkin hasn't exactly been himself. Here's a quick rundown of the problems:
• He's not driving puck possession and scoring like he typically does. With Malkin on the ice in five-on-five situations, the Penguins are generating just over half of all shots taken (50.4 percent). That's Malkin's worst shot share since the 2008-09 season (46.1%), and it ranks 188th among NHL players who have skated at least 500 minutes this year in five-on-five play. The Pens are getting 53.6% of scoring chances with Malkin skating -- the fifth-worst mark of his career and 101st among all players--and just 47.8% of goals. That's his lowest goals-for rate since 2009-10 (47.1%) and it ranks 245th among skaters.
• He's playing a less aggressive offensive brand of hockey. Malkin is attempting 6.8 shots per 60 minutes of ice time, which is the third-lowest rate of his career and is down from about eight shots per 60 minutes in each of the past two seasons.
• He's a turnover machine. Malkin is committing four giveaways per 60 minutes in 2018-19, by far the highest clip of his career (his previous high was 3.1 in 2017-18). Only six other players have a higher giveaway rate so far this season:
Granted, there are some All-Stars on this list, and players who have the puck more often by definition have more chances to commit turnovers. But Barzal (51.5%), Gaudreau (54.7%), Larkin (53.7%) and Pastrnak (54.9%) have all generated a higher percentage of total shots for their team while on the ice compared to Malkin. They're coughing up the puck a lot, but they're creating enough offense and driving possession enough to compensate. Malkin, less so.
• Even on the power play, he's in a funk. Malkin ranks 28th in the NHL in power play points (18), down from his lofty ranking of third in 2017-18. He's averaging 2.2 goals per 60 minutes of power play time this year, his lowest since 2014-15 (2.1), and his 6.5 total power play points per 60 minutes is down from 8.0 last season. His turnover problems have continued with the man advantage, too. Malkin's averaging 3.1 giveaways per 60 minutes on the power play, up from 2.5 last season.
Malkin is generating fewer shots and scoring chances for the Penguins, and too often fueling the other team's offense with costly turnovers. It's hardly time to panic, not with a guy who has this kind of track record and who's averaging a point per game during a "down" year. But Mr. 101 needs to clean up his game -- and regain his swagger -- for the Penguins to do anything other than bow out in the first round of the playoffs.
MORE PENGUINS
• Square peg, round hole: As we approach the one-year anniversary of the Derick Brassard trade, it has become clear that the Penguins and their hoped-for third-line center go together about as well as peanut butter and motor oil. With Brassard on the ice in five-on-five situations this season, the Penguins are generating just 43.8 percent of total shots taken (third-lowest among Penguins players with 300+ minutes of ice time), 42.1 percent of scoring chances (last on the team) and 41.2 percent of goals (third-worst). He's practically invisible from an offensive standpoint, attempting a mere 1.5 shots per game in 2018-19 (compared to 2.1 for his career). On a lower-octane line, Brassard is starting far more often in the defensive zone (59 percent of faceoffs, versus a 43.8 percent career average) and that's a role he seems particularly ill-suited for. With Brassard skating, the Penguins are allowing 36.9 shots per 60 minutes of ice time (second-highest on the team) and a team-high 31.4 scoring chances against. On both sides of the puck, this pending free agent is up against it.
• Danger ahead: If the Penguins are going to solidify a playoff spot and compete for another Stanley Cup, they'll have to stop gifting so many juicy scoring chances for their opponents. Pittsburgh has allowed 455 high-danger scoring chances in 2018-19, according to Natural Stat Trick. High-danger chances are those with the best odds of becoming a goal based on shot location, shot type, and odd-man rush situations. The Penguins have given up the 10th-most high-danger scoring chances, and the 12th-most high-danger goals (59). Overall, the Penguins have claimed 51.8 percent of all high-danger scoring chances in games this season, which ranks 14th among all teams. They generated a greater share of high-danger chances while winning cups in 2015-16 (53.1%, third-best in the NHL) and 2016-17 (52.2 percent, seventh-best).
STEELERS
• Square peg, round hole part 2: Morgan Burnett reportedly wants out of Pittsburgh, having grown dissatisfied with his hybrid linebacker/safety role with the Steelers and his diminished snap count. Burnett might not be happy, but the 30-year-old, who has missed nine games over the past two seasons due to injury, might not find as robust a market for his services as he thinks. The Player Grade rankings on Pro Football Focus, which evaluate a player's individual skills on a 0-100 scale, suggest he might have lost a step. Burnett had a coverage grade of just 63 this past season, which ranked 92nd among all safeties. His grade on run defense (70) was better, but not by much. Teams rarely shell out a lot of money for 30-somethings safeties, particularly ones that don't have top-flight range to cover tight ends and running backs in space.
• Butter fingers: The 2018 Steelers had a horrendous minus-11 turnover differential, fifth-worst among all teams. Ben Roethlisberger led the league in interceptions, but the team also had a fumbling problem. Pittsburgh averaged 1.3 fumbles per game, the 12th-highest mark among teams and up from 0.9 per game during a 13-3 season in 2017. According to the Team Rankings website, Roethlisberger had a team leading seven fumbles (including fumbles both lost and recovered). James Conner (four fumbles) also put the ball on the turf too often, as did Stevan Ridley (two) in very limited opportunities.
• Punting problems: While the Steelers' wretched kicking game received plenty of attention in 2018, the team could also use an upgrade at punter over free agent Jordan Berry. This past season, Berry ranked 26th in net punting yard average (38.8) and ranked 12th in punts placed inside the opponent's 20 yard line. It wasn't a one-year fluke, either: Berry ranked 23rd in net average in 2017, 15th in 2016 and 24th in 2015. He was 21st in punts placed inside the 20 in 2017, 15th in 2016 and 11th in 2015. If a kicker can get a pink slip after a few bad weeks, why should a team be OK with four middling years from a punter?
PIRATES
• A little patience: Erik Gonzalez, one of the competitors for the Pirates' 2019 shortstop job, has hit reasonably well at the Triple-A level (a .267 batting average/.306 on-base percentage/.406 slugging percentage while in the Cleveland Indians' farm system) but he hasn't reached that level of success in the majors (.263 average, .292 OBP and a .389 slugging percentage in 275 career plate appearances). The 27-year-old's plate discipline is a huge problem, as he has the second-worst walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.11) among all MLB hitters with 250+ plate appearances since the start of the 2016 season. He goes fishing outside of the strike zone far too often (he has chased 38 percent of pitches off the plate, far above the 30-31 percent MLB average, according to Fangraphs), and he often whiffs when he does (his contact rate on out-of-zone pitches is about 53 percent, compared to the 63 percent league average). So far, opponents have thrown Gonzalez pitches over the plate at a league-average 45 percent rate. Unless he tightens up his approach, expect that rate to drop. Why throw him a strike when he's so eager to chase junk pitches?
• Coming up short: Regardless of whether Gonzalez or Kevin Newman wins the shortstop job, the Pirates could be left wanting at the position in 2019. At least, that's the impression you'll get from Fangraphs' Depth Chart projections, which aggregate results for several forecast systems. Collectively, Pirates shortstops are projected for 1.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a measure of a player's overall hitting, fielding and base running talent compared to the kind of guy available on the waiver wire. That's dead last in the majors. In case you're wondering, the top available shortstop (non-Manny Machado division) is Jose Iglesias (1.7). He doesn't offer much of an upgrade, so the Pirates will likely hope that Gonzalez and Newman exceed expectations and prospects Cole Tucker and Oneil Cruz keep developing.
• A tall order: Sticking with the shortstop theme, Cruz was recently named the 79th-best prospect in the majors by Baseball America. Cruz, acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2017 for Tony Watson, has turned into a huge find for the Pirates. The 20-year-old lefty batter crushed it at Low Class-A West Virginia last season with a park and league-adjusted batting line that was 34 percent above average. The bigger question for the 6-foot-6 Cruz is, can he really stick at shortstop? He's surprisingly nimble for such a huge player, but there's literally no precedent for an NBA forward-sized guy manning that premium defensive spot. According to Baseball Reference, the 6-foot-4 Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Andy Fox and Cal Ripken Jr. are the tallest MLB players to ever appear in at least 100 games at shortstop. The tallest Pirate to play shortstop on a regular basis was the 6-foot-3 Jordy Mercer. Teams are more willing than ever to look past positional stereotypes, and the rise of defensive shifts can take some of the pressure off having a rangy shortstop, too. If Cruz remains a shortstop, he'll be in a category all his own.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Not your father's MLB: Despite record revenues, MLB free agency is once again moving at a snail's pace. Players, agents and the union clearly aren't happy. Teams, meanwhile, are largely claiming that front offices are just acting smarter by not doling out huge, long-term contracts to players who are at an age when decline tends to take hold. That notion -- paying for current, not past performance, and favoring youth -- is apparent when you consider the average age of MLB position players fell to 28.1 during the 2018 season, according to Baseball Reference. That's the youngest average age for position players since 1979 (28.0), and it's down nearly a full year from the average age 10 years ago (28.8). Back in 2008, MLB position players age 30 or older produced about 218 WAR. Last season, age 30+ position players produced 137 WAR -- the lowest total since 1981 (130). Interestingly, this youth movement hasn't extended to pitchers. The average age has remained steady over the past decade (around 28.4), and WAR by age 30+ pitchers was actually higher last year (160) than in 2008 (132). When it comes to position players, though, teams would rather trot out a young player making near the league minimum salary than sign an older free agent who might command 10 times the payout with near the same level of production.
LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!
Do you have a question for Stats 'N’ At? Post it in comments below!
