Despite his newly-earned wealth, Bryan Rust couldn't buy a goal earlier this season. Rust, a third-round pick out of Notre Dame in 2010, had ascended to become a key member of two Stanley Cup-winning teams thanks to his speed, transition game, turnover-inducing defense and penalty-killing prowess. The Penguins rewarded him this past June with a four-year contract extension that carries an average annual value of $3.5 million. And then, the net shrank.
Rust wasn't a huge scoring threat early on in his career (he averaged 0.18 goals per game from 2014-15 to 2017-18), but that looked like Mario Lemieux in his prime compared to his start to the 2018-19 campaign. He had just one goal in his first 29 games, with a whopping 2.8 shooting percentage through the month of November. GM Jim Rutherford didn't call out Rust by name, but he strongly suggested around that time that some of the Baby Pens who had provided such a strong complement to the team's core stars had tailed off and perhaps become complacent.
Since then, whatever alchemy of attitude, lack of confidence or just plain bad luck was ailing Rust has vanished. The net, once pea-sized, looks gargantuan. For a Penguins team that needs every point it can get, Rust has transformed into a critical secondary scoring threat while reaching new offensive heights.
Since the start of December, Rust's shooting percentage has skyrocketed to 20.2 percent. He has already surpassed his previous career high in goals, and his per-game average of 0.28 tops his 0.26 mark set back in 2016-17. But it's not just Rust's goal-scoring that should catch your attention. When you dig deeper, he's doing a better job of creating offense than he ever has before--whether he's playing even-strength or being deployed on the PK.
In five-on-five situations, Rust has created 10.2 individual scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time, according to Natural Stat Trick. Individual scoring chances attempt to isolate a player's specific offensive contributions when on the ice. That's a new career best for Rust, topping his rates of 8.5 individual scoring chances per 60 in 2017-18, 9.6 in 2016-17 and 9.2 in 2015-16 (he only played 14 regular-season games in '14-15, so I'm leaving that out in these comparisons). That's also the highest scoring chance rate among all Penguins who have 500+ minutes of five-on-five ice time in 2018-19, and one of the 15 best rates among all NHL players:
Rust has 4.8 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in five-on-five play, which represents yet another career high (he had 4.2 in '17-18, 4.3 in '16-17 and 3.8 in '15-16). Higher-danger chances are those with the best odds of becoming goals, based on shot location, shot type and odd-man rush situations. Among Penguins meeting the 500+ minute requirement, only Sidney Crosby (5.1) has created more high-danger opportunities. Rust ranks 26th among all NHL players in that category.
Even on the PK, Rust is wreaking havoc. He has a pair of-short-handed goals in 2018-19, and he's generating more shots and scoring chances while averaging a career-high two minutes per game as a penalty killer (his previous high was 1:23 last season). With Rust on the ice, the Penguins are generating 25.4 percent of shots and 25 percent of scoring chances while short-handed. That's a new career best in shot share (topping his mark of 20 percent in 2015-16), and his second-best mark in scoring chance rate on the PK (30 percent in '15-16).
It's possible that Rust's offensive surge has, to some extent, come at the expense of his customary excellent defense. With Rust on the ice in five-on-five situations, the Penguins are allowing 32.8 shots per 60 minutes. That's up from 25.9 last year, and represents a career high for Rust (but not in a good way). Pittsburgh is also allowing 12.1 high-danger chances per 60 minutes with Rust skating (11.1 last year), which is another career worst rate. The same can't be said on the PK, where Rust has career bests in shots and scoring chances allowed. In five-on-five situations, at least, it looks like he's jumping into the offensive play more often--and occasionally creating more opportunities for the other team, too.
Is the new, more offensively-minded Bryan Rust a better player? It's hard to say. His overall shot share in five-on-five situations is just 49.6 percent this season, which is actually the worst mark of his career and well below his overall 52.1 percent average in the NHL. Last season, his shot share was a career-best 55.5 percent. The old Rust was a nightmare for opposing offenses, while fueling the Penguins' transition game and chipping in with the occasional goal. The new Rust is creating more scoring chances himself, but also for the other team (at least at even strength). Considering coach Mike Sullivan's emphasis on puck possession, he might prefer to see the 2014-2018 version of Rust re-appear as the Penguins seek to lock down a playoff spot.
MORE PENGUINS
• Young goals: Jake Guentzel's offensive skills continue to evolve, with the recently-extended winger already establishing a new career high in goals with 28 (his previous best was 22 in 2017-18). The former third-round pick leads the Penguins in goals and ranks 18th among all NHL players in that category. If Guentzel keeps up this scoring pace, he would have a decent shot of finishing the 2018-19 season with 40 goals. According to Hockey Reference, only 11 Penguins have scored 40+ goals at age 24 or younger. Guentzel, 24, could join a group that features Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Pierre Larouche, Mike Bullard, Sidney Crosby, Rob Brown, Evgeni Malkin, Petr Nedved, James Neal, Dan Quinn and Mark Recchi. Impressive as Guentzel's season has been, he's got a ways to go to catch Mario's pace in 1988-89 (85 goals at age 23) and 1987-88 (70 goals at age 22).
• McCann impressing: Despite starting in his own zone frequently (77.9 percent of faceoffs taken with him on the ice have come in the defensive end), Jared McCann has made a favorable offensive impression during his first few weeks in Pittsburgh. The 22-year-old winger, acquired from Florida along with Nick Bjugstad, has scored 0.33 goals per game with the Penguins (compared to 0.17 this year with the Panthers and his 0.13 career average). McCann has been responsible with the puck, too, committing just 0.6 turnovers per 60 minutes (2.1 with the Panthers). His combined 11 goals so far in 2018-19 already represent a new career high. McCann might not be a huge offensive threat long-term, but he could be another nice, low-cost asset if he pairs his speed and strong defense with some occasional scoring touch. Think Carl Hagelin, with a little more finishing ability.
PIRATES
• Cabrera platoon-proof: Melky Cabrera is now 34 years old, and he's far removed from the days when he was an asset on the bases or in the field. But the switch-hitter, recently signed to a minor league deal with the Pirates that maxes out at $2 million with incentives, at least provides some protection for the team's lefty-batting corner outfielders. During his MLB career, Cabrera's park and league-adjusted OnBase Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) is about the same against lefties (3 percent worse than the overall MLB average) and righties (1 percent above average). His more recent work versus lefty pitching is more promising (about 25 percent above average from 2016-18). Lonnie Chisenhall, who's filling in for the recovering Gregory Polanco in right field, has a career adjusted OPS that's 12 percent below the MLB average. Polanco has scuffled even more versus lefties (his OPS is 29 percent below average during his career), and so has left fielder Corey Dickerson (24 percent below average against same-handed pitching).
• Pitching from behind: Lefty Francisco Liriano, who now qualifies as a two-time reclamation project for pitching coach Ray Searage and company, puts himself behind in the count more than just about any other pitcher. Last year, he threw first-pitch strikes just 53.6 percent, according to Fangraphs, which is a far cry from the 60.6 percent MLB average. It's not a new occurrence, either (Liriano's career first-pitch strike rate is 55.8 percent). What is new is Liriano's inability to battle back once falling behind batters. Last season, Liriano surrendered a .962 OPS once he fell behind in the count. He got shelled in hitter's count during a rough 2017, too (1.022 OPS). During his glory days with the Pirates, he was more capable of digging himself out of a hole (his OPS against in hitter's counts was about .900, while the MLB average is around .960). When his slider and changeup were otherwordly, Liriano could get away with his so-so control and limit damage in hitter's counts. Now? Not so much.
• Missing barrels: Reliever Kyle Crick had a breakthrough season in 2018, punching out 9.7 batters per nine innings pitched while posting a park and league-adjusted ERA (ERA+) that was 63 percent better than the overall MLB average. The man acquired from the Giants as part of the Andrew McCutchen deal ranked in the top 30 among all big league relievers who tossed at least 50 innings pitched. He achieved that level of success, in part, by doing an outstanding job of limiting hard contact. Crick surrendered the second-lowest hard contact rate (24.4 percent of batted balls) among all MLB pitchers who had at least 150 balls put in play, according to MLB Statcast. Hard-hit pitches are those with an exit velocity of 95+ mph. Only the Dodgers' Kenley Jansen (23.9 percent) had a lower hard-hit rate last season.
STEELERS
• Keeping Ben clean: One of newly-promoted offensive line coach Shaun Sarrett's main objectives will be to keep QB Ben Roethlisberger's jersey spotless. The soon-to-be 37 year-old Roethlisberger has remained relatively effective in part because he's taking fewer hits. Last season, Pittsburgh's offensive line tied the Saints for the third-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.4 percent) among NFL teams, according to Football Outsiders. Adjusted sack rate accounts for the down, distance and pass-rushing prowess of the opponent. Pittsburgh excelled at pass protection in 2017 (4.6 percent adjusted sack rate, seventh among all teams) and 2016 (3.9 percent, third), too. It also helps Roethlisberger releases the ball quickly, avoiding some of the coverage sacks that defined his early career. Roethlisberger threw passes an average of 2.55 seconds after the snap in 2018, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That tied Oakland's Derek Carr for the lowest average release time among NFL QBs.
• Straight-ahead style: James Conner's running style is a marked departure from the man he replaced, Le'Veon Bell. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Conner spent an average of 2.8 seconds behind the line of scrimmage last year. In 2017, Bell spent an average of 3.1 seconds in the backfield before cutting his way past defenders. Conner had an efficiency of 3.6. Efficiency is measured by taking the total distance a player traveled on a running play per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a north-south runner the player is. Bell, by contrast, had an efficiency of 4.2 during his last season with the Steelers. Bell was an eerily patient, east-west runner who could get to full speed in one step. Conner doesn't mess around -- he's barreling ahead and dragging defenders with him.
• Ben or Bradshaw? It's the offseason, and the non-Antonio Brown news surrounding the Steelers is slow. So let's start an old-fashioned bar stool debate: Who's the best quarterback in Steelers history, Roethlisberger or Terry Bradshaw? Clearly, Bradshaw holds the ultimate trump card by doubling up Ben in Super Bowl victories. But when you adjust for the difference in league-wide offense across eras, Ben and Bradshaw have awfully similar stats. Roethlisberger's adjusted passer rating is 11 percent above average, per Pro Football Reference, while Bradshaw's was 5 percent above average. Bradshaw holds the edge in touchdown rate (14 percent above average, +9 percent for Ben) and interception rate (4 percent fewer than the average QB, 1 percent more than average for Roethlisberger), while Ben comes out on top in adjusted yards per passing play (12 percent above average, 7 percent above average for Bradshaw). Sound off below: who you got, and why?
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Backstops lacking pop: Apparently, the tools of ignorance don't include a bat. The catching position is in the midst of an offensive drought the likes of which we've rarely seen. Collectively, catchers had a park and league-adjusted offensive line that was 16 percent worse than the overall MLB average in 2018, according to Fangraphs. That was the worst performance for catchers since 2002 (when they were 18% below average), and it ranks as one of the 25 worst batting lines for backstops in MLB history. It was also the worst adjusted batting line for any position in 2018. The other offensive trouble spots last year were also up-the-middle positions: second base (7 percent below average), shortstop (5 percent below average) and center field (4 percent below average). The Pirates had a major competitive advantage behind the dish, with Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz combining for an adjusted batting line that was 16 percent above the MLB average. That was the best team mark at the catcher spot, beating out the Dodgers (9 percent above average) and White Sox (8 percent above average).
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