A blockbuster hockey-trade-turned-bad can harm a franchise in a variety of ways and for years to come. The current club doesn't get the expected shot in the arm to strengthen its odds of winning the Cup, and the draft picks and prospects squandered in the process make future contention a dicey proposition. The Penguins seemed to have just such a situation on their hands with Derick Brassard, who instead of becoming the team's best third-line center since Jordan Staal, played the worst, lowest-octane hockey of his 12-year career.
But, to GM Jim Rutherford's credit, he has managed to atone for much of that original mistake by shipping Brassard and Riley Sheahan out of town for a pair of young, talented former Florida Panthers who are playing inspired hockey while fitting seamlessly into coach Mike Sullivan's system. Jared McCann and Nick Bjugstad have made the aging Penguins, younger, faster, and better positioned to chase Lord Stanley over the next few years.
Let's start with McCann, a former first-round draft pick of the Vancouver Canucks, who has already been traded twice before turning 23 years old. Since he donned a black and gold sweater, McCann has transformed from a guy who rarely scored (0.15 goals per game during his career) into a legitimate threat to goalies (0.42 goals per game in Pittsburgh, entering Tuesday's game against the Capitals). He's averaging 0.58 points per game in Pittsburgh, up from 0.39 with Florida earlier this year and his 0.35 career average. His scoring surge isn't just the product of puck luck, either. McCann is showing more of a shooter's mentality (1.95 per game with the Penguins, 1.7 with Florida) while helping to create high-quality goal scoring chances.
With McCann on the ice in five-on-five play, the Penguins are generating 51.4 percent of total scoring chances and 60.7 percent of high-danger scoring chances (those with the best odds of becoming a goal based on shot type, shot location, and odd-man rush situations). For comparison's sake, his share of high-danger scoring chances is higher than that of even Sidney Crosby (59.6 percent) and Jake Guentzel (58.2). His goals-for percentage is a healthy 57.1. McCann has been a key contributor defensively, too, as he's averaging 1:42 of penalty killing time per game. The Penguins are allowing just 28.9 shots per 60 minutes when McCann is skating during five-on-five situations, which is the lowest mark on the team this side of Crosby (28.1).
Bjugstad also has raised his game since the Feb. 1 trade. The 26-year-old is netting 0.26 goals per game in Pittsburgh (0.16 with Florida in 2018-19) while averaging 0.42 points per contest (0.38 with the Panthers). Like McCann, Bjugstad has been more willing to let it rip (2.5 shots per game, 1.9 in Florida) while creating prime scoring chances. With Bjugstad skating, the Penguins are generating 52.7 percent of scoring chances, 56.4 percent of high-danger chances, and 52.9 percent of goals.
McCann and Bjugstad have both fit in well and are helping to tilt the ice in the Penguins' favor. But perhaps the best way to illustrate what their performance has meant is to compare it to the guys they replaced -- Brassard and Sheahan. Take a look at the share of high-danger scoring chances created by the new guys, and the rate for the ex-Penguins.
With Brassard and Sheahan on the ice, the Penguins were punchless. With McCann and Bjugstad, they're making goalies sweat. The two have also played remarkably well together when paired on the same line. When they're skating together, Pittsburgh has generated 63 percent of scoring chances, 80 percent of high-danger chances, and 75 percent of goals scored.
It has only been six weeks, but it's hard not to love the McCann-Bjugstad deal more each day. Both are young, can toggle between wing and center, and are under team control for a while (McCann is signed for $1.25 million in 2019-20, and can become a restricted free agent at that point; Bjugstad will make $4.1 million per year through 2020-21). The Brassard deal, in retrospect, was a blockbuster deal gone bad. But kudos to Rutherford for pivoting and improving his roster for years to come.
MORE PENGUINS
• The Jake-and-Sid connection: When Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby are on the ice together, magic happens. But just how much better are these two together than apart? Way, way better -- and that's especially the case for Guentzel. When Guentzel skates with Crosby, the Penguins generate 55.7 percent of total shots, 58.3 percent of scoring changes and 70 percent of goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. When Guentzel is on the ice with a different center, Pittsburgh generates just 42.3 percent of total shots, 44.2 percent of scoring chances and 31.6 percent of goals. Sid might still be productive with a cardboard cutout of Jaromir Jagr on his wing (or the real-life, 47-year-old version suiting up for Kladno), but Guentzel does elevate Crosby's game, too. When Crosby skates without Guentzel, the Penguins get 52 percent of total shots, 52.8 percent of scoring chances and 58.8 percent of goals.
• Forty-something scoring: Matt Cullen recently became just the second U.S.-born skater to play in 1,500+ career games, joining Chris Chelios in that ultra-exclusive club. Cullen is also climbing the ranks of scoring leaders among players in their 40s. With 70 points, Cullen ranks 13th all-time in scoring among players still suiting up in their 40s. He at least has a chance of passing Daniel Alfredsson (75) and Alex Delvecchio (76) by season's end. The all-time leader in 40-something scoring? Jagr, at 268 points (Kladno tallies not included).
PIRATES
• Stacking up the competition: After a mostly dormant winter, the Pirates enter 2019 hoping they can climb the NL Central standings through internal improvements from young players (Josh Bell, Colin Moran), the return of Jung Ho Kang's power bat, and a full season from trade-deadline pickups Chris Archer and Keone Kela. How likely is that improve-from-within plan to work? Not terribly well, if you're a big believer in Fangraphs' projected standings. Fangraphs currently pegs the Pirates for a last-place finish in the Central at 78-84, with a -25 run differential. The forecasts are sunnier for the Reds (81-81, neutral run differential), Brewers (83-79, +18), Cardinals (86-76, +42) and Cubs (88-74, +69).
• Trevor's time? Speaking of projections, there might not be a more fascinating player to forecast in 2019 than Trevor Williams. Williams posted a quality 3.11 ERA last season in 31 starts, but his more advanced stats weren't as impressive. His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) -- a more accurate predictor of future performance based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball ratio (to account for good or bad luck on fly balls hit) -- was 4.54. The projection systems, including Fangraps' Depth Charts system, peg Williams as a back-of-the-rotation arm in 2019 (4.39 ERA). And yet, there's at least some hope that Williams can outperform that forecast. He doesn't miss many bats or have impeccable control, but Williams does induce weak contact -- the kind that's more likely to lead to outs. Williams allowed an average exit velocity of just 85.6 mph last season, which was the 12th-lowest mark among MLB pitchers who had at least 300 batted-ball events. His exit velocity was in the same range as NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom and Phillies ace Aaron Nola. Don't expect Williams to scrape the twos with his ERA again, but he could perform better than expected if he keeps limiting hard contact.
• Need for speed: These days, practically everything is measured in sports. One of the many new toys made available by MLB Statcast is sprint speed, which reveals a player's fastest one-second window of movement during base running plays. The MLB average on competitive plays (those where a player really has reason to motor) is about 27 feet per second. So, who are the speed demons and slow pokes on the Pirates? Kevin Newman (29 feet per second) was actually the leader in the clubhouse in 2018, beating out the likes of Starling Marte (28.6), Pablo Reyes (28.4) and Gregory Polanco (27.9). Meanwhile, you won't find Colin Moran (25.2), Jacob Stallings (25.2), Francisco Cervelli (25.8) or Elias Diaz (26.6) winning many races.
STEELERS
• Cornerback busts: One of the biggest differences between the Super Bowl-winning Steelers teams of the late Bill Cowher/early Mike Tomlin years and the more recent, underperforming clubs is the franchise's lack of success in drafting and developing cornerbacks. Pittsburgh once received lots of value from mid-to-late-round corners, but it has struck out on picks in all rounds lately. Pro Football Reference has a stat called Approximate Value (AV), which attempts to measure a player's total production across different positions on the field and across eras. Over the past 20 years, the Steelers' leaders in AV among drafted corners are Ike Taylor (63 AV as a fourth-rounder in 2003), Deshea Townsend (47 AV as a fourth-rounder in 1998), Chad Scott (44 AV as a first-rounder in 1999) and William Gay (43 AV as a fifth-rounder in 2007). Suffice it to say, the likes of Artie Burns (14 AV as a first-rounder in 2016), Cameron Sutton (3 AV as a 2017 third-rounder) and Senquez Golson (zero AV or games played) busted by comparison.
• Conner the barbarian: James Conner made a strong case to be the Steelers' feature running back in a post-Le'Veon Bell landscape, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in 2018 while ranking sixth among NFL backs in yards from scrimmage (1,614). Conner bruised plenty of bodies and egos along the way. He tied for fourth among running backs in broken tackles (56), according to Football Outsiders. He busted loose 35 times on running plays and 21 times as a receiver. Only Saquon Barkley (94), Christian McCaffrey (63) and Chris Carson (61) had more broken tackles. Adrian Peterson also had 56 breakaways.
• A career-saving season? The Steelers surprised many onlookers when they re-signed left guard Ramon Foster to a two-year, $8.25 million contract. Some had assumed Pittsburgh would let Foster walk in free agency and replace him with B.J. Finney -- and that was especially the case after the Steelers placed a second-round tender on the restricted free agent. But for now, the team will preserve depth up front with Foster, who turned in a durable and effective 2018 season. According to Pro Football Focus' player grading system, Foster was the NFL's 16th-best guard last year. His player grade was 69.1 overall, on a scale of 0-100, with an especially strong ranking in pass blocking (84.5). During an injury-riddled 2017, Foster graded out at 60.2 overall -- his lowest mark since his rookie season. At age 33, the former undrafted free agent is still going strong.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Max velocity? Fueled by advances in training, nutrition, coaching and analytics, MLB pitchers are throwing harder than ever. But it looks like we may have finally reached a limit on the velocity craze that has swept our national pastime over the past decade. In 2008, the average MLB pitcher threw his fastball at 90.7 mph, according to Baseball Info Solutions. By 2017, that average jumped by more than two mph (92.8). Last season, the average fastball velocity didn't increase for the first time in a decade (it stayed the same, at 92.8 mph). The Pirates definitely brought the heat, with an average team fastball velocity of 93.9 mph. That tied the Tampa Bay Rays for third-highest among MLB teams, behind only the Yankees (94.5) and Astros (94).
