CINCINNATI – Trevor Williams had a historic second half last season. Those who study advanced baseball statistics then spent the winter picking it apart.
Williams posted a 1.38 ERA after the All-Star break, the second-best mark in Pirates history. The only pitcher better was Zane Smith, who had a 1.30 mark in 1990 after being acquired in a trade from the Montreal Expos and helping lead the Pirates to the National League East pennant.
The analysts pointed to some of Williams’ metrics and said his post-break performance had more than a bit of flukiness to it that he would never be able to repeat. To a point, they were right. The only pitcher in history capable of duplicating such a phenomenal half was Cy Young, and he last pitched in 1911. However, that doesn’t mean that the 26-year-old Williams isn’t turning into an above-average major-league starting pitching.
“I know I’m a good pitcher,” Williams said after he pitched six strong innings Sunday and combined with three relievers on a four-hit shutout in the Pirates’ 5-0 victory over the Reds at Great American Ball Park. “With every positive statistic with me, there are five negative ones. But it’s that way with anybody. That’s kind of how advanced analytics works. It’s unfortunate, but that’s basically the way it is. I don’t let it bother me. I know what I’m capable of doing.”
Williams allowed three hits, two of them in his final inning. He struck out six and walked only one while throwing 59 of his 80 pitches for strikes.
While the line was outstanding and reminiscent of the second half of 2018 when he had eight scoreless outings, he was at his best when facing the final batter on a cold afternoon in which the game-time temperature was 35 degrees. The Reds put runners on first and third with two outs in the sixth, the first time they had a man in scoring position. Williams got out of the jam by striking out the dangerous Yasiel Puig on three pitches, all fastballs.
That preserved the Pirates’ 3-0 lead and they were never threatened again, evening their record at 1-1 after losing to the Reds in the opener Thursday then being rained out Saturday.
The matchup against Puig was classic Williams. He threw the three heaters – if you can call them that – at 91, 89 and 91 mph. Yet he made one of the Reds’ major off-season acquisitions look silly.
Williams threw 38 fastballs Sunday and got 10 swinging strikes even though his fastest was 93 mph.
What Williams lacks in velocity on the fastball, he makes up for with precision. He continually spots the pitch in places where hitters have a difficult time making hard contact.
“He has a lot of confidence in his fastball and we’ve got confidence in him throwing his fastball,” Clint Hurdle said. “There’s no reason not to. When he can get it spotted up, it makes it a different dynamic for his other pitches to play. The changing of the eye level with the fastball is one of his strengths.”
Almost equally impressive as Williams’ pitching was his hitting. He drove in two runs, which was one more RBI than he had amassed in 101 previous career plate appearances.
Williams hit an opposite-field single down the right-field line after getting jammed in the second inning, scoring Melky Cabrera from second base and giving the Pirates a 2-0 lead. An inning later, Williams drew a bases-loaded walk from Sonny Gray to push home the Pirates’ third run.
Though Williams smiled when the multi-RBI performance was brought up, he preferred to concentrate on his pitching. In fact, he is already looking ahead to his second start, which comes Saturday when he faces the Reds again, this time at PNC Park.
“It’s good to get off on the right foot in 2019 and it’s something to build off,” Williams said. “The next start is also going to be against them, so we’re going to have to game plan for that and reconvene in six days and see what happens.”
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
THE GOOD
Joe Musgrove showed his selfless side.
The big right-hander was originally scheduled to start Sunday. However, he had ended up pitching two perfect innings in relief of Williams, preserving a 3-0 lead before Felipe Vazquez and Keone Kela combined to finish the shutout in the ninth.
Because of Saturday’s rainout, Williams’ turn in the rotation was pushed back a day.
Musgrove volunteered to have his start skipped and will next pitch Friday night against the Reds at PNC Park. Chris Archer will start Monday and Jameson Taillon will pitch Wednesday in a two-game series against the Cardinals in Pittsburgh then Jordan Lyles, Musgrove, Williams and Archer will face the Reds in a four-game series beginning Thursday night.
The last time Musgrove pitched in relief was Game 6 of the 2017 World Series for the Astros against the Dodgers.
“It’s something we talked about during the rain delay (Saturday), how to best serve him and the rest of the rotation moving forward,” Hurdle said. “It had to be a team win because it’s not the norm, but he has experience (pitching in relief). He threw his curveball and his changeup. Very rarely do you say a guy got his work in a major-league game when it’s 3-0.”
Musgrove admitted it was disappointing to have his first start skipped but sounded glad to take one for the team.
“I just wanted to pitch,” Musgrove said. “It was, do I want to throw the whole schedule off or throw my schedule off and not throw off four other people’s schedule. I’m sure the other four guys in the rotation would have done the same thing if they were in the same situation.”
THE BAD
The Pirates scored five runs but could have had a lot more. Reds pitchers walked seven batters and Cincinnati made four errors.
Yet the Pirates stranded 12 runners, including seven in the first three innings. Of the seven Pirates to reach on walks, none came in to score, and they went just 4-for-13 with runners in scoring position.
“We put a lot of pressure on them and kept applying the pressure,” Hurdle said. “We had a lot of opportunities. We didn’t cash in a lot of them, but we cashed in enough.”
THE OTHER SIDE
Gray was one of three starting pitchers acquired by the Reds in trades during the offseason, along with Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, after they finished last in the National League Central for the last four years.
After getting Gray from the Yankees, the Reds tacked three years and $30 million on to his contract to make it a four-year, $38-million deal.
The right-hander made his Reds’ debut Sunday and it was ugly as he lasted just 2 2/3 innings and exited after walking Williams with the bases loaded. He gave up three runs (two earned) and five hits with four walks and no strikeouts. Just 34 of his 71 pitches were strikes.
“I didn't throw strikes from the get-go,” Gray said. “I just didn't throw enough strikes. It was an opportunity, and I didn't throw strikes.”
That came after a less-than-stellar season in New York in which he was 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA in 30 games.
A segment of Pirates fans felt Neal Huntington should have pursued a trade for Gray. It turns out the Pirates might have been right by turning away.
THE DATA
• Williams improved to 4-1 against the Reds in nine career starts.
• Williams had the first multi-RBI game by a Pirates pitcher since Nick Kingham drove in two runs last July 21 against the Reds in Cincinnati.
• All three of Williams' career RBIs have come against the Reds. His first was Sept. 17, 2016.
• Corey Dickerson drove in two runs and now has 32 RBIs in 34 career games against the Reds, including 14 in 13 games at Great American Ball Park.
• The game-time temperature of 35 degrees was the second-coldest since Great American Ball Park opened in 2003.
THE INJURIES
• Starling Marte, center fielder, returned to the lineup after being a late scratch in Thursday's opener with a migraine headache. He went 1-for-4 with two runs scored, an RBI-double and a stolen base.
• Lonnie Chisenhall, outfielder, sustained a fractured right index finger when hit by a pitch Monday night in an exhibition game against the Astros in Houston. He will be reevaluated late next week and is expected to miss four-to-six weeks.
• Elias Diaz, catcher, is recovering from a virus. He could return by mid-April.
• Chad Kuhl, right-hander, is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire season.
• Jordan Lyles, right-hander, has right side discomfort and is expected to return sometime next week.
• Dovydas Neverauskas, right-hander, has a right oblique strain and is out indefinitely.
• Jose Osuna, first baseman/outfielder, has lower neck discomfort and is out indefinitely.
• Gregory Polanco, right fielder, rehabbing from left shoulder surgery, is likely to return in May.
• Edgar Santana, right-hander, is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire season.
THE SCHEDULE
The Pirates return to Pittsburgh for the home opener at 1:05 p.m. tomorrow against the Cardinals at PNC Park. Archer (6-8, 4.31 in 2018) will pitch against Adam Wainwright (2-4, 4.46).
Hurdle will hold his pre-game press conference at 9;30 a.m. I'll be on the scene for the coverage in my 43rd straight home opener -- including 32 in a working capacity -- along with DK and Hunter Homistek.
THE COVERAGE
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