If the 2019 Pirates are going to surpass the .500ish projections that are the source of both scorn and motivation for the team, they're going to need their starting rotation to be elite. Not just decent, like in 2018 when Pittsburgh's starters placed 15th in the majors with 10.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR, a measure of player value compared to that of the kind of player who ends up becoming waiver bait). Great. Short of Josh Bell re-discovering his power stroke, Gregory Polanco returning early from shoulder surgery and channeling Dave Parker, and Jung Ho Kang slugging like it's 2016, the Pirates' offense doesn't figure to improve much over the 2018 unit that tied for 18th in the big leagues with 4.3 runs scored per game.
The Pirates need a full season of Chris Archer performing like he did last September. Another All-Star-worthy campaign out of Jameson Taillon. Another improbable, impressive year from Trevor Williams. A full, healthy batch of starts from Joe Musgrove. And at least adequacy out of the-- journeyman starter? Opener? Top prospect?--who ends up taking the ball every fifth fifth day.
So, is the starting rotation up for the job?
Are they good enough to overcome the club's lack of offensive punch, and leapfrog their NL Central rivals?
To explore the issue, and at the risk of drawing ire on Federal Street, let's turn to those projection systems.
I'm going to use FanGraphs' Depth Charts projections, which forecast a player's production based on a blend of past performance, aging curves, and the performance of historically similar players. According to those projections, the Pirates have reason to thump their chests about having the best starting rotation in the NL Central. But the gap between Pittsburgh and their competitors might not be quite as wide as some think:
The Pirates project to have the ninth-best rotation in the majors, ranking behind the Indians (19.8 WAR), Yankees (15.8), Mets (15.7), Nationals (15.7), Astros (15.1), Dodgers (14.3), Red Sox (14) and Rays (12.3). The rotation is clearly an asset, but it forecasts to be above-average rather than best-in-class. And, save for the Brewers, the Pirates' rotation isn't projected to be head-and-shoulders above other NL Central teams that figure to boast more potent offensive attacks (Pittsburgh is forecast to score 4.2 runs per game in 2019, compared to 4.7 for the Cubs and Brewers, 4.5 for the Reds, and 4.3 for the Cardinals).
There's room to debate the individual projections for Pirates starters. They're bullish on Archer building on his strong September and 2019 home opener start, finishing with 3.7 WAR this season (he had 2.6 WAR in 2018). Taillon is forecast to remain a high-quality starter, if not quite reaching ace status (3.3 WAR, versus 3.8 in 2018). Musgrove is expected to basically tread water (2.4 WAR, 2.2 in 2018). The most provocative projection belongs to Williams, who is forecast for just 1.4 WAR after compiling 2.7 last season. The fifth start spot, split between Jordan Lyles (0.8 WAR), Mitch Keller (0.5) and a few others, is projected for a little less than two wins above replacement.
You could punch holes in some of those projections. Perhaps you think that Taillon, equipped with a new out-pitch slider, is ready to ascend to ace territory. Maybe you're confident that a healthy Musgrove makes 25-plus starts at a high level. Maybe Williams, despite middling strikeout and walk totals, continues to defy expectations by inducing extremely weak contact (the average exit velocity on Williams' pitches put in play during his career is 85.3 mph, way below the 87.4 mph MLB average). You might have confidence that manager Clint Hurdle will have a quick hook with Lyles, who has allowed a career .659 On-Base-Plus-Slugging Percentage when facing batters for the first time in the game, a .795 OPS the second time, and a .964 OPS the third time. Or that Keller will smooth out his command issues and take the league by storm with his mid-90s fastball and hammer curve.
The point is, a variety of things have to break the Pirates' way for October baseball to return to PNC Park after a three-year hiatus. These projection systems aren't destiny, but Pittsburgh needs to exceed them by a significant amount to compensate for low-octane offense, and to have a true advantage over their division foes.
MORE PIRATES
• Making the routine play: For Adam Frazier to make good on John Perrotto's prediction and become a 2019 All-Star, he'll have to do more than keep hitting for extra-base power--he'll also have to sustain the defensive gains he seemed to make at second base. In a little over 400 innings played at the keystone in 2016 and 2017, Frazier cost the Pirates about -5.5 runs compared to an average defensive second baseman, according to Fangraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) metric. UZR compares a player's defensive value to that of an average player at his position, while accounting for items like range, turning double plays, and avoiding errors. In about 400 innings in 2018, Frazier was +1.4 runs better than an average defensive second baseman. It's hardly a huge sample, but it's one reason why the Pirates were comfortable making Frazier their everyday second baseman this season. So, what changed? Mostly, Frazier avoided making mistakes. Over the 2016-17 seasons, he was -6 runs worse than average on errors. Last year, he was a run below average. According to Inside Edge's fielding stats, Frazier made about 92% of routine plays at second base in 2016-17. Routine plays are the kind that are converted into outs 90-100% of the time, based on batted ball location and type, and game situation. In 2018, Frazier made 99% of routine plays. Only Robinson Cano, Carlos Asuaje and Rougned Odor were better at making the routine play.
• Kela's curve: Felipe Vazquez has triple-digit heat that gives hitters nightmares, but his setup man's curveball is terrifying in its own right. Since the start of the 2015 season, Keone Kela has the second-best curveball in the majors among relievers as measured by Fangraphs' Pitch Run Value metric. Pitch Run Value measures the effectiveness of a given offering compared to the average for that pitch type. Zero is average, while a positive number means that the pitch is above-average. Since he debuted in 2015, Kela's low-to-mid-80s curveball has been a collective +25.6 runs better than average. The only qualified MLB reliever with a better hook over that time frame is David Robertson (+43 runs above average). Kela's hook beat out the likes of Craig Kimbrel (+24.8), Arodys Vizcaino (+24.2) and Justin Grimm (+20.7). Overall, batters have a .133 batting average and a .182 slugging percentage versus Kela's curve, with about 16 times as many strikeouts as walks.
PENGUINS
• McCann's scoring touch: From short-handed tallies to spin-o-rama goals straight out of the Evgeni Malkin playbook, Jared McCann has demonstrated some serious finishing ability since the Penguins acquired him from the Florida Panthers. Since the February trade, McCann has more than doubled his rate of goals per game (0.38 in Pittsburgh, 0.17 in Florida) and he's closing in on 20 goals overall this season. Considering McCann's youth--he won't turn 23 until May 3--that's a pretty big milestone for the Penguins. Over the past two decades, only three Penguins players have scored more than 20 goals in a season at age 22 or younger: Sidney Crosby (51 goals at age 22, 39 at age 18, 36 at age 19, 33 at age 21, 24 at age 20), Malkin (47 goals at age 21, 35 at age 22, 33 at age 20) and Jordan Staal (29 at age 18, 22 at age 20, and 21 at age 21).
• Better days ahead for Bjugstad? McCann's former Panthers teammate, Nick Bjugstad, has also enjoyed a big uptick in scoring since the trade (0.28 goals per game, 0.16 in Florida). And there's reason to think there's more where that came from. He's taking far more shots per game with the Penguins (2.8, compared to 1.9 with Florida) while creating more stress on opposing goalies. With Bjugstad on the ice in five-on-five play, the Penguins are creating 54.1 percent of total scoring chances (his rate was 48.5 percent with the Panthers) and 60 percent of high-danger scoring chances (those with the highest odds of becoming a goal based on shot type, shot location, and odd-man rush situations). His high-danger rate was 49.3 percent with Florida. Bjugstad has really jelled with wingers Dominik Simon and Patric Hornqvist. With that trio skating together, Pittsburgh is creating 60.2 percent of total shots, 61.4 percent of scoring chances, 71.8 percent of high-danger scoring chances and 71.4 percent of goals.
• An elite netminder: Don't look now, but Matt Murray is surging toward the top of the goalie leader board. Among goalies with 40+ appearances this season, he ranks sixth in adjusted goals allowed percentage. Adjusted goals allowed places a goalie's save percentage on a scale where 100 is league-average, and below 100 means that the goalie is stopping more pucks than most. It adjusts for the offensive environment, so you can make more direct comparisons between seasons and eras. Murray's adjusted goals allowed rate is 89 in 2018-19 (meaning he's preventing 11 percent more goals than average). That's far better than his 106 mark in 2017-18 (meaning he gave up six percent more goals than average), and is awfully close to his early-career brilliance (87 adjusted goals allowed rate in 2015-16 and 2016-17). Murray's 2018-19 season is actually one of the ten-best in Penguins franchise history among goalies with 40+ games played. The all-time single-season leaders in adjusted goals allowed are Tom Barrasso (84 adjusted goals allowed in 1997-98), Jim Rutherford (85 in 1972-73), Dunc Wilson (86 in 1976-77), Barasso (86 in 1992-93), Gary Inness (87 in 1974-75), Murray (88 in 2016-17), Denis Herron (89 in 1977-78), Murray this year, Jean-Sebastien Aubin (90 in 1999-2000) and Roberto Romano (91 in 1985-86). In case you're wondering, Marc-Andre Fleury's best years by adjusted goals allowed were 2014-15 and 2015-16 (93 each season).
STEELERS
• Built to last? James Conner had a breakout 2018 season, dispelling any notion that he was too slow or too one-dimensional to be a feature running back by ranking sixth at the position in total yards from scrimmage (1,470). One question that remains is whether Conner, who missed games in 2018 with an ankle injury and concussion issues, can hold up while taking on more than the 215 carries that he had last year. If the Steelers draft a complementary 'back, or increase Jaylen Samuels' workload, or just continue to throw as frequently as an Arena Football League team, Conner might not need to take on more carries. But here's one indication that he could be up for the task. In the first half of games last season, Conner averaged 4.5 rushing yards per carry, caught 79 percent of passes thrown his way and averaged 7.6 yards per reception. In the second half, when the touches started to pile up, Conner had 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, caught 74 percent of passes and averaged 10.6 yards per reception.
• JuJu through year two: Now that Antonio Brown is catching passes and throwing social media shade from the West Coast, JuJu Smith-Schuster is the Steelers' unquestioned top pass-catcher. While he'll clearly garner more attention from defensive backs next season and won't have the benefit of lining up with a fellow Pro Bowler, it's worth remembering that Smith-Schuster's early-career resume is nearly unrivaled in NFL history. Through his first two pro seasons, he ranks fourth all-time among receivers in catches (169), seventh in catch percentage (69) and eighth in yards (2,343) during the post-merger era (1970 to present). Only Michael Thomas (196), Jarvis Landry (194) and Odell Beckham (187) hauled in more passes through two seasons. Thomas (72.6), Tyreek Hill (72.3), Kenny Stills (71.4), Landry (69.8), Stefon Diggs (69.4) and Brandin Cooks (69.2) are the only guys with a higher catch rate. In terms of yardage, just Beckham (2,755), Randy Moss (2,726), Jerry Rice (2,497), Josh Gordon (2,451), Torry Holt (2,423), A.J. Green (2,407) and Thomas (2,382) outdid JuJu. And, at 22, he's barely older than top 2019 draft prospects. Smith-Schuster is far more than the beneficiary of AB receiving double coverage.
• Draft steals at wide out: Smith-Schuster, the 62nd overall pick in the 2017 draft, is just the latest example of the Steelers drafting and developing a quality wide receiver beyond round one. Over the past two decades, Pittsburgh has drafted eight receivers who posted at least 15 Approximate Value (AV) points with the team. A Pro Football Reference stat, AV attempts to measure a player's overall production compared to players at different positions and across different eras. The list includes Hines Ward (118 AV, third-round pick in 1998), Brown (102 AV, sixth-rounder in 2010), Mike Wallace (35 AV, third-rounder in 2009, Antwaan Randle El (29 AV, second-rounder in 2002), Smith-Schuster (21 AV), Martavis Bryant (18 AV, fourth-rounder in 2014), Emmanuel Sanders (17 AV, third-rounder in 2010) and Bobby Shaw (15 AV, sixth-rounder in 1999). The Steelers have trouble drafting guys who can stop receivers, but have no problem finding under-valued pass-catchers.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Take me out to the ball game? As the 2019 season kicks off, Major League Baseball will look to reverse a multi-year trend of declining attendance. Back in 2008, average attendance for an MLB game was 32,382, according to Baseball-Reference. By last year, that total was down to an average of 28,659 per game--an 11.5 percent decline over the past decade. The Pirates, of course, have their own challenge in luring fans back to PNC Park. In 2015, Pittsburgh boasted an average of 30,847 fans per game. Last year, they drew just 18,316 paying customers. That's a 40.6 percent decline in just a few short years. The Pirates (49 percent of stadium capacity), Reds (47.5 percent), Orioles (44.1 percent), Rays (41.8 percent) and Marlins (26.7 percent) were the only MLB teams last season to draw less than half of their stadiums' total seating capacity.
LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!
Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
Have a question? Post it in comments below!